Good morning,
DFNS released their 10k after the bell yesterday. I read thru it last night and things look pretty good.
They have just less than 29 million shares outstanding which was a concern of mine. (Especially after the ATSX ordeal) It doesn't look they are issuing a bunch either. It looks like they have a decent amount of cash as well.
With all the new orders assuming they are making a profit on the orders they should have some nice cash flow coming.
Their backlog was $3.5 million which is up.
They have $6.9 million in orders from the Israel Defense department.
Another $780,000 from U.S and Latin america (Jan 17th news release)
Another $280,000 for a bus contract and maybe $1 million from that.
And that doesn't include the smaller orders or if the civilians are buying. (They did $4 million in civilian orders or $1 million per quarter for 2006.)
All totaled that should mean $8-$10+ million for the first 2 quarters for DFNS. They only did about $3.6 million for the first 2 quarters of 2006.
So we could have revenue growth of over 100% for the first 2 quarters Year over Year.
Someone with a lot of volume is taking the stock down a bit today now as of this writing is back to .50
I think as long as they continue to grow revenue and if they could earn .02 each of the first 2 quarters this stock will really move. Next important date is May 15th which is when the Q1 will be need to be released by.
The owner of the company and another big investor own roughly 80% of the stock. Which means their is roughly only about 6 million shares in the float. So a quarter with huge growth especially if it comes with earnings will really move this stock.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Monday, April 9, 2007
DFNS is the Pick UPDATE!
I wanted to address something with the stock pick DFNS.
I purchased DFNS last Thursday April 5th in my IRA (1500 shares at .52) It was in the running for my top pick so I wanted to get in the stock. I do own other stocks as well for my IRA.
Anyway last Thursday the stock did over 300,000 in volume traded which is about 5x its normal trading volume for a day. What the reason was I don't know.
When I tried to buy my 8,000 shares this morning for the StockDoubling project I got a message from scottrade.....
"Buys are not allowed for this security. Please call your local branch to place the order."
So I had to call Scottrade in order to place my 8,000 share buy order. (Same commission rate) I just spoke with him again and he didn't show a reason on his screen why I had to call the local branch. I have heard from others though that their scottrade broker has said stuff like pump and dump promotion.
So whether that went happened on Thursday April 5th and that is the reason for the 300,000+ shares traded I am not sure.
Even for my order I had to call it in and that was BEFORE I even posted I owned the stock anywhere online.
However last Thursday for my IRA order I could do it online!
I don't know if other brokers did that or not I just use Scottrade. 300,000+ shares isn't a lot though overall. (They have roughly 29 million outstanding.) And it isn't like 300,000 hasn't been traded before they have actually traded over 280,000 shares 4 times this year. (Those other times did have news releases with them, this one did not)
I wanted to keep you abreast of what was going on and if you saw that message I wanted to let you know what it was about.
Currently the stock is up a bit from this morning so its off to a good start.
Happy trading.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I purchased DFNS last Thursday April 5th in my IRA (1500 shares at .52) It was in the running for my top pick so I wanted to get in the stock. I do own other stocks as well for my IRA.
Anyway last Thursday the stock did over 300,000 in volume traded which is about 5x its normal trading volume for a day. What the reason was I don't know.
When I tried to buy my 8,000 shares this morning for the StockDoubling project I got a message from scottrade.....
"Buys are not allowed for this security. Please call your local branch to place the order."
So I had to call Scottrade in order to place my 8,000 share buy order. (Same commission rate) I just spoke with him again and he didn't show a reason on his screen why I had to call the local branch. I have heard from others though that their scottrade broker has said stuff like pump and dump promotion.
So whether that went happened on Thursday April 5th and that is the reason for the 300,000+ shares traded I am not sure.
Even for my order I had to call it in and that was BEFORE I even posted I owned the stock anywhere online.
However last Thursday for my IRA order I could do it online!
I don't know if other brokers did that or not I just use Scottrade. 300,000+ shares isn't a lot though overall. (They have roughly 29 million outstanding.) And it isn't like 300,000 hasn't been traded before they have actually traded over 280,000 shares 4 times this year. (Those other times did have news releases with them, this one did not)
I wanted to keep you abreast of what was going on and if you saw that message I wanted to let you know what it was about.
Currently the stock is up a bit from this morning so its off to a good start.
Happy trading.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS 5TH PICK FOR STOCKDOUBLING.COM PROJECT
My 5th pick for the StockDoubling.com Project is.....
I purchased 8000 shares at .50 of DFNS (DEFENSE INDUSTRIES)
DFNS Is an company based in Israel that deals with defense.
This company has announced some big orders for their products in the last couple of months. They should grow revenue dramatically especially for the first 2 quarters. The stock has moved up some already though due to that news. Last year they did roughly $10 million in revenue I would think they could do $15-$20 million this year. The Ceo owns 2/3rds of the stock but they are filing their 10k in a few days/week which I would rather have that information in front of me before buying. How much in earnings could they really do? I don't know could be .03-.10 if it is on the lower end the RISK of this stock could be a good deal. With roughly 30 million shares and if it does $15 million in revenue that is a 2 to 1 price to sales ratio. The real question is will the orders they have announced turn into additional orders for now and the future. In the past the company has been stagnate as far as growth so is this year a fluke or can they really continue to grow?
Their seems to be decent support at .45 and .40 if it breaks that then .30. I would probably exit the trade below .30 if it got that low. On the upside they have hit their 52 week high in the low .60's a few weeks ago. If that breaks it could head toward $1.
They should have a couple of monster Q1 (will be out by May 15th) and Q2 (Will be out by August 15th) year over year which could really move the stock. Especially if the company can produce a couple cents per share in each quarter.
It does have some risks if they can't produce additional orders or if they can't turn a profit this could go down to .30.
Here are the other 4 stocks that were in contention for my Stock Pick. They are inNo particular order. (I look through 100's and 100's of stocks. I narrow it downlittle by little usually to a group of 20-30 after a while than really go in-depth.I than narrow it to 5 and out of the 5 I pick the best.) I have always included theother 4 stocks in the original email. The other stocks have usually done pretty well also.
In random order! (I do not own any of these following stocks or plan to unlessotherwise noted. Stock symbols are given with April 4th closing price.)
GLDS .275 This company is buying a couple of other companies and combined revenues should reach $55 million for 2007. Insiders have been buying the stock in recent months. They have about 70 million shares outstanding but with all the additional buying of companies it will probably approach 100+ million. They may lose some money but if they can keep shares outstanding to a minimum they could be ok. A double in price would mean roughly 1 to 1 price to sales. Which wouldn't be bad. It is well off its highs it may take a while though to right the ship. (Has the biggest upside for a multiple gainer but biggest downside if they don't stop issuing shares and can't become profitable.)
AYSI .67 This stock has taken off in the last couple of months it is up from the .10-.15 range just a couple of months ago. They earned .03 EPS for the first quarter 07. They seem to have turned the corner on revenue and growth. This is a very small company they only did $3-4 million all year last year. However what matters is EPS. And its possible they could earn .08-.10 for the year. They said 2nd quarter results would be down from 1st quarter what that means I don't know. But if the stock price slips to the .50 range I think it would be a good buying opportunity. Insiders own most of the shares. (basically 2 guys) Investor relations aren't pleased with them though for various reasons. A decent amount of risk at these levels due to the quick move up. If it can come back down a little and after the 2nd quarter earnings. (which will be out by mid May) if the stock comes back to the .40-.50 range and it still looks like .08-.10EPS for the year could be a good buy there.
TSSW .76 This stock has also moved up a bit in the last month or two. They are also a very small company having revenue of just over $3 million for 2006. But they made .06 EPS and grew about 100% last year. They seem to have things together and their websites (which is how they sell) are ever increasing in hits each month. They also have plans for other products that could increase revenues. Insiders own a good deal of this stock (35%) Issue is I am looking for a double in price or $1.50 can this stock get there. A $1.50 stock price would mean a $20 million marketcap for a company that may do $5 million this year in revenue. EPS does matter but where will they be even with .10 EPS for the year I would need a 15 x EPS. Which for the industry they are in is very low but it is also a small stock. I think it has potential to go higher I would like to see a bit lower price though first.
CAGC $2.90 This stock deals with fertilizer in China they have opened a couple of factories the last few months and have a couple more coming on within the next 60 days. They are profitable company earning .29 EPS for 2006. So they are trading at roughly a 10x PE. With the additional factories coming online they should increase revenue and EPS a good deal. Their is good support at $2.40-.50 in this stock so the downside isn't too bad. Other factors that could cause this stock problems is CHINA. If China revalues their currencies the sales for CAGC will go down comparative. Also China has announced new tax laws going into effect Jan 1 2008 which when announced the rates could send ALL china stocks lower.(Assuming they are high) Both the currency aspect and tax aspect have me a little worried about the hits China stocks could take. I think the stock is very good though and will continue to grow and its hard to invest in WHAT IF'S. As if the tax rate is good then it would be a non event or if the currency doesn't revalue this year its a non event.
I would also need a $6 stock price in order to get my double. With 19 million shares out that roughly a $115 million dollar market cap for a company that will do $40 million in revenue or so. I would need a roughly 15x PE. As far as safety and longer term play I think this will probably be the one.
Thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Risk disclosure and system result disclosure: This is not a prospectus; no offer onour part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities/currencies isintended or implied, and nothing contained herein is to be construed as arecommendation to take a position in any market. It is possible that at this date orsome subsequent date the owners, directors of Alley Cat News and its affiliates ownindices/currencies/stocks, or buy or sell indices/currencies/stocks mentioned inthis system or those not so mentioned. The intent of this site is for informationalpurposes only. The material presented herein has been obtained or derived fromsources believed to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. TheInformation is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or anyother advice. The Information on this Site is general in nature and is not specificto you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any ofthe Information on this site without undertaking your own due diligence. You agreethat any and all use of the Information, which you make, is solely at your own riskand without recourse to Alley Cat News/StockDoubling.com or its owners. All tradinginvolves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of futureresults. There have been no promises, guarantees or warranties suggesting that anytrading will result in a profit or will not result in a loss. Stock trading involveshigh risk and you can lose a substantial amount of money. Readers use theinformation and links entirely at their own risk. Alley Cat News/StockDoubling.comdoes not accept any liability in respect of any loss or damage arising from or inconnection with any use of the information on or accessed through this document orour company websites. All intellectual property rights in this report remain theproperty of Alley Cat News. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION!
I purchased 8000 shares at .50 of DFNS (DEFENSE INDUSTRIES)
DFNS Is an company based in Israel that deals with defense.
This company has announced some big orders for their products in the last couple of months. They should grow revenue dramatically especially for the first 2 quarters. The stock has moved up some already though due to that news. Last year they did roughly $10 million in revenue I would think they could do $15-$20 million this year. The Ceo owns 2/3rds of the stock but they are filing their 10k in a few days/week which I would rather have that information in front of me before buying. How much in earnings could they really do? I don't know could be .03-.10 if it is on the lower end the RISK of this stock could be a good deal. With roughly 30 million shares and if it does $15 million in revenue that is a 2 to 1 price to sales ratio. The real question is will the orders they have announced turn into additional orders for now and the future. In the past the company has been stagnate as far as growth so is this year a fluke or can they really continue to grow?
Their seems to be decent support at .45 and .40 if it breaks that then .30. I would probably exit the trade below .30 if it got that low. On the upside they have hit their 52 week high in the low .60's a few weeks ago. If that breaks it could head toward $1.
They should have a couple of monster Q1 (will be out by May 15th) and Q2 (Will be out by August 15th) year over year which could really move the stock. Especially if the company can produce a couple cents per share in each quarter.
It does have some risks if they can't produce additional orders or if they can't turn a profit this could go down to .30.
Here are the other 4 stocks that were in contention for my Stock Pick. They are inNo particular order. (I look through 100's and 100's of stocks. I narrow it downlittle by little usually to a group of 20-30 after a while than really go in-depth.I than narrow it to 5 and out of the 5 I pick the best.) I have always included theother 4 stocks in the original email. The other stocks have usually done pretty well also.
In random order! (I do not own any of these following stocks or plan to unlessotherwise noted. Stock symbols are given with April 4th closing price.)
GLDS .275 This company is buying a couple of other companies and combined revenues should reach $55 million for 2007. Insiders have been buying the stock in recent months. They have about 70 million shares outstanding but with all the additional buying of companies it will probably approach 100+ million. They may lose some money but if they can keep shares outstanding to a minimum they could be ok. A double in price would mean roughly 1 to 1 price to sales. Which wouldn't be bad. It is well off its highs it may take a while though to right the ship. (Has the biggest upside for a multiple gainer but biggest downside if they don't stop issuing shares and can't become profitable.)
AYSI .67 This stock has taken off in the last couple of months it is up from the .10-.15 range just a couple of months ago. They earned .03 EPS for the first quarter 07. They seem to have turned the corner on revenue and growth. This is a very small company they only did $3-4 million all year last year. However what matters is EPS. And its possible they could earn .08-.10 for the year. They said 2nd quarter results would be down from 1st quarter what that means I don't know. But if the stock price slips to the .50 range I think it would be a good buying opportunity. Insiders own most of the shares. (basically 2 guys) Investor relations aren't pleased with them though for various reasons. A decent amount of risk at these levels due to the quick move up. If it can come back down a little and after the 2nd quarter earnings. (which will be out by mid May) if the stock comes back to the .40-.50 range and it still looks like .08-.10EPS for the year could be a good buy there.
TSSW .76 This stock has also moved up a bit in the last month or two. They are also a very small company having revenue of just over $3 million for 2006. But they made .06 EPS and grew about 100% last year. They seem to have things together and their websites (which is how they sell) are ever increasing in hits each month. They also have plans for other products that could increase revenues. Insiders own a good deal of this stock (35%) Issue is I am looking for a double in price or $1.50 can this stock get there. A $1.50 stock price would mean a $20 million marketcap for a company that may do $5 million this year in revenue. EPS does matter but where will they be even with .10 EPS for the year I would need a 15 x EPS. Which for the industry they are in is very low but it is also a small stock. I think it has potential to go higher I would like to see a bit lower price though first.
CAGC $2.90 This stock deals with fertilizer in China they have opened a couple of factories the last few months and have a couple more coming on within the next 60 days. They are profitable company earning .29 EPS for 2006. So they are trading at roughly a 10x PE. With the additional factories coming online they should increase revenue and EPS a good deal. Their is good support at $2.40-.50 in this stock so the downside isn't too bad. Other factors that could cause this stock problems is CHINA. If China revalues their currencies the sales for CAGC will go down comparative. Also China has announced new tax laws going into effect Jan 1 2008 which when announced the rates could send ALL china stocks lower.(Assuming they are high) Both the currency aspect and tax aspect have me a little worried about the hits China stocks could take. I think the stock is very good though and will continue to grow and its hard to invest in WHAT IF'S. As if the tax rate is good then it would be a non event or if the currency doesn't revalue this year its a non event.
I would also need a $6 stock price in order to get my double. With 19 million shares out that roughly a $115 million dollar market cap for a company that will do $40 million in revenue or so. I would need a roughly 15x PE. As far as safety and longer term play I think this will probably be the one.
Thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Risk disclosure and system result disclosure: This is not a prospectus; no offer onour part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities/currencies isintended or implied, and nothing contained herein is to be construed as arecommendation to take a position in any market. It is possible that at this date orsome subsequent date the owners, directors of Alley Cat News and its affiliates ownindices/currencies/stocks, or buy or sell indices/currencies/stocks mentioned inthis system or those not so mentioned. The intent of this site is for informationalpurposes only. The material presented herein has been obtained or derived fromsources believed to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. TheInformation is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or anyother advice. The Information on this Site is general in nature and is not specificto you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any ofthe Information on this site without undertaking your own due diligence. You agreethat any and all use of the Information, which you make, is solely at your own riskand without recourse to Alley Cat News/StockDoubling.com or its owners. All tradinginvolves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of futureresults. There have been no promises, guarantees or warranties suggesting that anytrading will result in a profit or will not result in a loss. Stock trading involveshigh risk and you can lose a substantial amount of money. Readers use theinformation and links entirely at their own risk. Alley Cat News/StockDoubling.comdoes not accept any liability in respect of any loss or damage arising from or inconnection with any use of the information on or accessed through this document orour company websites. All intellectual property rights in this report remain theproperty of Alley Cat News. THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION!
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Pick for the StockDoubling Project coming Monday?
I have narrowed my search down to 5 stocks. And I SHOULD be releasing them sometime on Monday. I will pick the one I like the best and put my money into it for the StockDoubling project. I will then also post the "other 4" stocks.
The update won't come until after the market opens as I have to get on a 9am call and still talk to a few people before narrowing my 5 stocks down to the ONE! No I haven't picked the ONE stock yet but should hopefully with some more research today and Monday.
If I find the one stock and get a good value for it in the markets I will buy and then let everyone know what it is.
So keep your eyes on the blog Monday for the possible pick.
I have put a lot of hours into 10k's this time around on a LOT of different stocks so hopefully it will really pay off. We will have to wait and see.
Have a Happy Easter! He is risen
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
The update won't come until after the market opens as I have to get on a 9am call and still talk to a few people before narrowing my 5 stocks down to the ONE! No I haven't picked the ONE stock yet but should hopefully with some more research today and Monday.
If I find the one stock and get a good value for it in the markets I will buy and then let everyone know what it is.
So keep your eyes on the blog Monday for the possible pick.
I have put a lot of hours into 10k's this time around on a LOT of different stocks so hopefully it will really pay off. We will have to wait and see.
Have a Happy Easter! He is risen
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Thursday, April 5, 2007
No 5th pick today
Sorry no 5th pick today.
The stock recovered very quickly and I couldn't get the price I wanted. It has since moved up a bit and I don't know if that will end up being the stock or not anymore.
Yes that stock may move higher but will move enough for the double?
I am feeling a bit better today and will hopefully do some research Friday and Saturday and if all goes well maybe have the pick on Monday. ASSUMING I CAN GET THE PRICE I WANT.
If not I will wait it out for one of the stocks to fall a bit before picking it up.
Have a great day and a very HAPPY EASTER. (He is Risen!)
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
The stock recovered very quickly and I couldn't get the price I wanted. It has since moved up a bit and I don't know if that will end up being the stock or not anymore.
Yes that stock may move higher but will move enough for the double?
I am feeling a bit better today and will hopefully do some research Friday and Saturday and if all goes well maybe have the pick on Monday. ASSUMING I CAN GET THE PRICE I WANT.
If not I will wait it out for one of the stocks to fall a bit before picking it up.
Have a great day and a very HAPPY EASTER. (He is Risen!)
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
5th Stock Pick Today?????
Just an FYI I MIGHT!! Have the 5th stock pick later today. I want to see if I can get the right price for it first. If I can't I will wait until Monday.
Anyway keep an eye out for an email or watch the blog.
Thanks
Steve Hoven
Anyway keep an eye out for an email or watch the blog.
Thanks
Steve Hoven
Monday, April 2, 2007
Monday April 2nd
Sorry for the delay. Not much to report except my Allergies are kicking my butt today and yesterday.
I did do some research on Saturday but nothing has really jumped at me yet. Shoot if you got something for me to look at that IS NOT A STORY STOCK. Send it to me I will take and look and maybe it will become the next pick. (alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net ) Must be GROWING and close to earning money if not already doing so. NO PINKS!
I am NOT going to rush things at all. I am still WAY ahead of schedule on the project so I have all kinds of time as far as that goes.
If I can kick the allergies I may get a stock in this week. But at this point I would probably say no. I still would like to get all my taxes done YIKES THIS YEAR with all the paperwork I got to do. Anyway I would like that done prior to picking a stock as usually I am pretty focused on the stock for the first few days after I pick it.
It is also a short week due to GOOD FRIDAY this week the markets are closed that day.
Anyway if I had to predict it would probably be next week but will see over the next couple of days.
Have a good day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I did do some research on Saturday but nothing has really jumped at me yet. Shoot if you got something for me to look at that IS NOT A STORY STOCK. Send it to me I will take and look and maybe it will become the next pick. (alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net ) Must be GROWING and close to earning money if not already doing so. NO PINKS!
I am NOT going to rush things at all. I am still WAY ahead of schedule on the project so I have all kinds of time as far as that goes.
If I can kick the allergies I may get a stock in this week. But at this point I would probably say no. I still would like to get all my taxes done YIKES THIS YEAR with all the paperwork I got to do. Anyway I would like that done prior to picking a stock as usually I am pretty focused on the stock for the first few days after I pick it.
It is also a short week due to GOOD FRIDAY this week the markets are closed that day.
Anyway if I had to predict it would probably be next week but will see over the next couple of days.
Have a good day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
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