I have gotten emails from people asking my thoughts on DFNS etc.. Well my thoughts are posted on this blog and I also post them on Ragingbull.com on the DFNS board.
Some people have mentioned they just found out about Stockdoubling and would like to get involved with the next pick. Well the next pick could be a good long while from now.
And since I normally find 4 OTHER stocks that are in the running to maybe us those in a different project. (I will still have the monthly project down the road as well)
But this 2nd project would be just like StockDoubling.com Project take $500 and try and double it once a year etc.. I wouldn't suggest anyone selling out of DFNS to get into the new project it would be a totally seperate project with different funds etc.. At least that is what I would suggest.
You can see the poll to the left and make your decisions and I will determine whether its worth my time to go ahead and do another TWIN project to stockdoubling.com
Let me know by voting.
Merry Christmas
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Thursday, December 13, 2007
DFNS WHAT NOW?
DFNS where do we go from here?
DFNS continues to be down in the upper.20's to low .30's. I have emailed the company NUMEROUS times since Nov. 26th and have yet to hear anything from them. I had some questions I wanted addressed by the company.
One of which was why they didn't put out a press release after the Q3 report. It wasn't as good of report as Q2 (and I didn't expect it to be) but it was their 2nd best quarter they had in YEARS! So why they didn't put out a statement saying they were happy with sales etc... Was puzzling to me. The only reason I could come up with is they didn't want to put it out because future sales don't look that promising. I don't know if that is the case or not but they have been a reason for the huge selloff.
I love to see a company that insiders own a good portion of the stock. In DFNS case though the CEO owns over 60% of the stock which means whatever he says goes anyway. Doesn't matter what the shareholders think as he controls it. Which is fine as he has a lot invested but what tends to happen is lack of effort on the company side to give QUALITY information to the general public.
I haven't sold a single share and WON'T until we hit the mid .40's again AT LEAST!! (Not sure if I would then but that would probably be the minimum I would sell some at.) I am 100% in on DFNS it is the only stock I own and don't have any $$$ in my brokerage account to buy anything else. So if I did sell any shares it would be my excess shares NOT my stockdoubling project shares. The only way I would sell some before the mid .40's would be if news came out that sales have dried up or something else major happened.
The bottom-line though is this stock can be bought many times during the week for as little as .30. It is still a company that has a BOOK VALUE (The breakup value of the company) of .24. Also market value of the company when trading at .30 is LESS then $9 million. (That is how much it would cost to buy ALL the shares at .30) Which for a company that should do $17 million in revenue for the year is A STEAL!!
So the #'s are there as far as undervalued I would say that. It just depends is the underlying business still viable going forward. Was it a 1 year fluke in business or is this something that the company can sustain and build on going forward? And that is a question I don't have an answer to and the company isn't giving out any hints either. As I said before I could wait until the end of October 2008 for the stock to hit .50 and still be on pace for the stockdoubling project. I would prefer not to wait that long of course but I do have time to wait. When things look this undervalued I just am not going to sell any shares.
An interesting bit of information though which you can study yourself if you so desire.... Looking at a 5 year chart of DFNS. (go to www.bigcharts.com and use the weekly charts) Around this time of the year should you have purchased DFNS around the mid/late December each year and held it for a couple weeks in the new year you would have made quite a nice return each time. What tends to happen especially with a lot of small cap stocks is people sell their losing stocks before the end of the year to get the tax write off. Then a flood of people come into to "cheap" or "value" stocks to start the year. And DFNS has value I think (assuming the business remains strong.) So we could see a bounce in it if history repeats itself on that. Time will tell on what happens.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS continues to be down in the upper.20's to low .30's. I have emailed the company NUMEROUS times since Nov. 26th and have yet to hear anything from them. I had some questions I wanted addressed by the company.
One of which was why they didn't put out a press release after the Q3 report. It wasn't as good of report as Q2 (and I didn't expect it to be) but it was their 2nd best quarter they had in YEARS! So why they didn't put out a statement saying they were happy with sales etc... Was puzzling to me. The only reason I could come up with is they didn't want to put it out because future sales don't look that promising. I don't know if that is the case or not but they have been a reason for the huge selloff.
I love to see a company that insiders own a good portion of the stock. In DFNS case though the CEO owns over 60% of the stock which means whatever he says goes anyway. Doesn't matter what the shareholders think as he controls it. Which is fine as he has a lot invested but what tends to happen is lack of effort on the company side to give QUALITY information to the general public.
I haven't sold a single share and WON'T until we hit the mid .40's again AT LEAST!! (Not sure if I would then but that would probably be the minimum I would sell some at.) I am 100% in on DFNS it is the only stock I own and don't have any $$$ in my brokerage account to buy anything else. So if I did sell any shares it would be my excess shares NOT my stockdoubling project shares. The only way I would sell some before the mid .40's would be if news came out that sales have dried up or something else major happened.
The bottom-line though is this stock can be bought many times during the week for as little as .30. It is still a company that has a BOOK VALUE (The breakup value of the company) of .24. Also market value of the company when trading at .30 is LESS then $9 million. (That is how much it would cost to buy ALL the shares at .30) Which for a company that should do $17 million in revenue for the year is A STEAL!!
So the #'s are there as far as undervalued I would say that. It just depends is the underlying business still viable going forward. Was it a 1 year fluke in business or is this something that the company can sustain and build on going forward? And that is a question I don't have an answer to and the company isn't giving out any hints either. As I said before I could wait until the end of October 2008 for the stock to hit .50 and still be on pace for the stockdoubling project. I would prefer not to wait that long of course but I do have time to wait. When things look this undervalued I just am not going to sell any shares.
An interesting bit of information though which you can study yourself if you so desire.... Looking at a 5 year chart of DFNS. (go to www.bigcharts.com and use the weekly charts) Around this time of the year should you have purchased DFNS around the mid/late December each year and held it for a couple weeks in the new year you would have made quite a nice return each time. What tends to happen especially with a lot of small cap stocks is people sell their losing stocks before the end of the year to get the tax write off. Then a flood of people come into to "cheap" or "value" stocks to start the year. And DFNS has value I think (assuming the business remains strong.) So we could see a bounce in it if history repeats itself on that. Time will tell on what happens.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
DFNS and the StockDoubling Project
Hello StockDoubling members,
I haven't had an update in a while. Not much is new with DFNS it is WAY undervalued I believe at these prices the bid is .30 (what you can sell it for) ask is .36 (what you buy it for)
Based on .31 which was its last traded price and 29 million shares outstanding it has a market cap of $9 million. (That is the worth supposedly of the company.)
The company will do $17-18 million for the year in revenue more than likely so its value is 1/2 its sales. It also already has .042 in EPS for the year and may or may not earn more in Q4.
We could have some tax selloff before the end of the year yet on DFNS. But I think after the New year if not before we will see a move higher and people look for value and this has a ton of value.
It had a big 300k+ volume day last week but nothing really happened with it. Not sure what to think. They did also make an announcement about a new order for a product but the order was only for 250k so it isn't that big of deal. The only issue that I can foresee is that sales have just dried up. During their slow times though over the last few years they were still able to do $10 million or so a year in revenue which would still put our Price to Sales ratio at less then 1. So unless this stock simply implodes I just don't see it being down at these levels for too long.
Now on to the StockDoubling project itself......
I started the project back on October 31st 2005. The goal is to get 1 stock to double each year and after 11 years I would have $1 million after starting with just $500. Well we started off with a bang and were doubling stocks in 4 months time. Well obviously this year hasn't been good to us but we are still on track.
Starting with $500 on October 31st 2005
$1000 would be needed by October 31st 2006 (Which we had)
$2000 would be needed by October 31st 2007 (Which we had)
$4000 would be needed by October 31st 2008 (We actually put $4k into DFNS)
Anyway my point is we are still 10-11 months from the October 31st 2008 time frame when we should have $4,000. Currently I have 8000 DFNS shares at .30 so that is $2400. If DFNS came back up to .50 the $4,000 would be there.
So we just have to take a step back and look at the goals for the long term. Again this project is to see if it can get done, and hopefully it can but it wasn't a project to double stocks every 4 months it was to find 1 stock a YEAR.
With the wildness of the markets lately their are always good opportunities to look at. Right now for me I still feel DFNS is very undervalued. And unless something big happens one way or another I will be staying in it. Whether I try and ride it to $1 is another story but I don't foresee me selling it at these prices. If something changes with the company I will have to reevaluate but at this time I see a LOT more upside then downside.
Have a Great Trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I haven't had an update in a while. Not much is new with DFNS it is WAY undervalued I believe at these prices the bid is .30 (what you can sell it for) ask is .36 (what you buy it for)
Based on .31 which was its last traded price and 29 million shares outstanding it has a market cap of $9 million. (That is the worth supposedly of the company.)
The company will do $17-18 million for the year in revenue more than likely so its value is 1/2 its sales. It also already has .042 in EPS for the year and may or may not earn more in Q4.
We could have some tax selloff before the end of the year yet on DFNS. But I think after the New year if not before we will see a move higher and people look for value and this has a ton of value.
It had a big 300k+ volume day last week but nothing really happened with it. Not sure what to think. They did also make an announcement about a new order for a product but the order was only for 250k so it isn't that big of deal. The only issue that I can foresee is that sales have just dried up. During their slow times though over the last few years they were still able to do $10 million or so a year in revenue which would still put our Price to Sales ratio at less then 1. So unless this stock simply implodes I just don't see it being down at these levels for too long.
Now on to the StockDoubling project itself......
I started the project back on October 31st 2005. The goal is to get 1 stock to double each year and after 11 years I would have $1 million after starting with just $500. Well we started off with a bang and were doubling stocks in 4 months time. Well obviously this year hasn't been good to us but we are still on track.
Starting with $500 on October 31st 2005
$1000 would be needed by October 31st 2006 (Which we had)
$2000 would be needed by October 31st 2007 (Which we had)
$4000 would be needed by October 31st 2008 (We actually put $4k into DFNS)
Anyway my point is we are still 10-11 months from the October 31st 2008 time frame when we should have $4,000. Currently I have 8000 DFNS shares at .30 so that is $2400. If DFNS came back up to .50 the $4,000 would be there.
So we just have to take a step back and look at the goals for the long term. Again this project is to see if it can get done, and hopefully it can but it wasn't a project to double stocks every 4 months it was to find 1 stock a YEAR.
With the wildness of the markets lately their are always good opportunities to look at. Right now for me I still feel DFNS is very undervalued. And unless something big happens one way or another I will be staying in it. Whether I try and ride it to $1 is another story but I don't foresee me selling it at these prices. If something changes with the company I will have to reevaluate but at this time I see a LOT more upside then downside.
Have a Great Trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
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