Thursday, August 30, 2007

New Project I need your picks

The New stock project I will release after labor day in a nutshell is the following....

Find 1 maybe 2 stocks in a month that I think over the next 30-60 days can move up 10-30%. I will personally put in $400-$600 in each stock and sell them after it hits the target. (Which of course you will know about etc..)

The stock picks will be FREE no monthly charges at this time I just will have a donation page up if the picks are good you can donate etc.. We will see how it goes for the first couple of months that way and reevaluate it down the road.

I think the stock market is in for a wild ride (both up and down) over the next 2 months so it is an interesting time to start this project but I will give it a go.

If your funds are limited I would NOT take any money out of the stockdoubling project stock in order to do this. The StockDoubling project is for long term gains. And one of the reasons I started it is because I jumped in and out of stocks too much. And maybe its a mistake doing this new project only time will tell but I am not touching my stockdoubling project $$$ for this.

It is for fun and a way hopefully to make some money off the additional stocks that I like etc.. I will be doing the same process I use when finding StockDoubling picks so the #'s will be their it won't be based on HYPE etc..

Those of you whom have purchased the Stock Video/Ebook if you have suggestions on stocks to look at I would LOVE to hear them. I will take a look at them and maybe it will be the first pick for this new project.

I will have a new site and list and blog for this new project probably sometime next week. So that it isn't confusing those who just want to be on the StockDoubling project list.

So if (and ONLY IF) if you purchased the Stock Videos and if you have a stock please email me the stock and your thoughts on it.

Send to with the topic "New Project Stock".

FYI I would also suggest not doing this project if you are going to be putting in less then $250 in a stock. Commissions will be roughly $14 by the time you buy and sell the stock. So if the gain is 10% or $25 on $250 its $11 profit. If you are doing less then $250 minimum I wouldn't suggest doing it, it may not be worth it after all the fees etc.. Each stock will be different some I will look for 10% some 30% etc..

Let me know your stocks and your thoughts on the new project.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

This is what I just did

I wanted to let you know of what I just did.

I sold 2450 from my regular scottrade account. But bought 2000 shares in my IRA of DFNS.

So now I have 8000 shares (StockDoubling account) of DFNS

I have 2000 DFNS in my IRA (which is actually going to be used for a trip in early 2008 if DFNS produces well by then.)

I also have 500 shares of CAGC in my IRA as well. Which as of right now will be left in for a while 6-12 months looking for a good return on that.

Anyway I wanted to let you know about the changes.


I had to move the shares around a little bit though due to the new stock project that I will start after Labor day. (Which was discussed on this blog a month + ago)

I have a bunch of free trades available in my regular account so I needed to free up some money in that account in order to purchase the NEW stocks for this new stock project that I will discuss after Labor day.


I wanted to let you know for full disclosure reasons.

If you are still looking for passive $$$ and the goal of the $1 million after 11 stocks etc.. I still think the StockDoubling project is the way to go. That will NOT change even with this new project.

The new project is strictly for those people who would like to see some more action rather than waiting on the stockdoubling project. (They should still have money in the stockdoubling project.)

Anyway I will let you know more information on that when its available.

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven

Tuesday, August 28, 2007


Here are my estimates for Q3 for DFNS. (which ends September 30th but will be announced November 15th or so.)

Just rough #'s there is no way to know for sure. I think the revenue #'s could be close but its so hard to say with the earnings due to so many different expenses that vary each quarter but here are my guesses etc...


Local Civilian $800,000 (this tends to be about there average each quarter.)
Export Civilian $300,000 (If you look at backlog in the Q2 which is on page 13 they list $600k for US I took 1/2 of that # to be filled in Q3.)
Local Military $1,500,000 (Page 12 of Q2 report says they expect to do $3 million for the rest of the year. I took 1/2 that # to be filled in Q3)
Export Military $1,700,000 (Press release August 8th $1.2 million order due in Q3. Also backlog page 13 of Q2 report had $1.4 million I took $500k of that for Q3)

So that is a total of $4.3 million in revenue.

Is that down from Q2? YES As I said before I felt that Q2 would be the largest revenue quarter for DFNS for that year. That is why I was a little disappointed with the big tax issues DFNS faced in Q2. Otherwise we could have seen .03 for the quarter and this stock would be in the .80 range right now instead of .60.

As far as earnings this is where it gets tricky but I figured I would put the #'s out anyway.

$800,000 revenue. Local Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 13% profit margin. I put a 10% margin on it for Q3 so $80,000 profits
$300,000 revenue. Export Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $45,000 profits.
$1,500,000 revenue. Local Military so far for the 6 months has been a 24% profit margin. I put a 20% margin on it for Q3 so $300,000 profits.
$1,700,000 revenue. Export Military so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $255,000 profits.

So a total of $4.3 million in revenue and $680,000 in profits.

Take 25% out for taxes ($170,000)


Which is about .017 EPS for the quarter. (They did $3.9 million in Q1 revenue and $478,000 in net income)

Add that to the other profits and after Q3 stands at roughly .053 EPS for the year.

AGAIN JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE BUT UNLESS they keep a bunch back for Q4 I think the revenue #'s I presented here will be within 300-400k +/-.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven

Monday, August 27, 2007

CAGC and DFNS update

Hello StockDoubling members,

Sorry I haven't updated I was out of town for a while with the funeral etc..

I did end up listening to the conference call on CAGC's 2nd quarter earnings. It is very interesting and if any of you have an interest in the stock it is something you would want to listen to. (It is around 45-50 minutes the first part and the Q&A are the most interesting. You could skip thru the financial readings etc..)

The stock fell like a rock after earnings and fell some more after the call. I did buy some at $2.40 a share (500 shares) and will hold for more longer term. (I bought for my IRA) I think it could be a double in price over the next 12-18 months for sure at these levels. Currently trading a little over 1x P/S for this year. Even with all the issues they should earn .20-.30 I would think for the year. Which would be in the less than 10x PE ratio.
It could go down further if a ticked off investor decides to dump it. But based on a longer term horizon I think they are in good shape going forward. Their may be some bumps in the road but I think its a solid play for those willing to hold a year+.

As far as DFNS, not much is new since last posting. Still in the high .50's or low .60's. The next 2 weeks or so hopefully we get a news release about more orders which would effect this year's earnings. Any news release about new orders will bump up the stock price a little bit at least.

We are in a good position where we are UP in the stock now just waiting for a bigger payoff. It's better then being down a little bit and having to wait for a turnaround. So we have some breathing room even if the stock was to go down a little bit.

later this week I will give my estimates for Q3 for DFNS.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven

Friday, August 17, 2007

wild market

DFNS took a hit yesterday with the rest of the market.

It was a wild ride on the DOW.
And with the Fed cut rates has helped stocks a bit.

Its a good thing I didn't sell DFNS to buy CAGC. It got hammered after its earnings.

And was way down yesterday. A great buying opportunity for those willing to hold for a year+.

The company projects about .32 EPS this year based on the outstanding shares now. Not a ton of downside unless the market crashes or something. Their 2nd quarter was disappointing but I think it will still do quite well over a year+.

They had a conference call you can listen to via yahoo if you are interested in the stock check that out first. (I haven't listened to it yet.)

Due to the death of my wife grandmother (92). I will be traveling and attending the funeral etc.. so unless something MAJOR happens with DFNS I won't be having a blog on Monday or Tuesday of next week.

Have a great weekend.

Steve Hoven

Thursday, August 16, 2007

DFNS press release is out

DFNS came out with their press release. They didn't say a whole lot expect this....

"Our enhanced sales and marketing efforts are already paying off, as we are receiving new orders from new significant customers world-wide. An example of this is our recently announced order for a body armor product from a new client from a CIS country."

So that is good news for future orders.

I would like to see some more order announcements between now and mid September to have any effect on this years revenue and earnings.

Anything after that probably won't effect this years earnings at all.

So unless we hear from the company about new orders etc... We won't hear from them again until mid November with the 3rd quarter earnings release.

The StockDoubling project is a 1 year project per stock. (though we have done it on average less then 4 months for the other ones) We are only 4 months into DFNS and we are still up over 20% right now. Not amazing but still what many people would LOVE over 1 year.

Assuming the company doesn't come out with bad news. (IE lost contracts, lawsuit, issuing more shares etc...) I wouldn't think the stock should see much lower than around .50 (which is our purchase point.)

Assuming the company doesn't come out with good news. (IE new orders, buyback, buying company etc..)
I wouldn't think the stock should see much higher than .70.

So I think we are range bound in the .50-.70 range for a while.
I think their is more possibility of GOOD news over the next 3 months then their is bad news though.

I still think its a good medium term buy if you can get it for .50. But short term its a little top heavy at .70

I am in and looking forward to good news coming from DFNS.

Have a good trading day.

Steve Hoven

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Sold some DFNS IRA shares

I sold my shares I had in my IRA for DFNS.

(4700 shares at .64)

I wanted to free up some cash for the monthly stock selections I will be having hopefully later this month or after Labor day.

I still feel confident in DFNS. However I don't know that it will run too high unless they get some big order announcements.

I also didn't like the fact I was 100% into DFNS and didn't have any cash on the sidelines or another stock. (I still own the 8000 shares of DFNS for the stockdoubling project and another 2450 shares for my personal account.)

We could be stuck in the .50-.70 range for a while unless we see some news from the company on new orders etc..
The revenue # was GREAT. The earnings # was OK at best. Without the big tax issues I think we would have seen .70+ today.

The company should come out with a Press release either today or tomorrow I would think just giving their thoughts and future comments which could bump the stock a little bit.

Next earnings release isn't until mid Nov. I will give projections on that in future blog postings etc...

Currently I am sitting tight on the stockdoubling project shares.

I don't see a reason why it should trade less than .50 but don't see a reason why it should trade more than .70+ right now either. UNLESS WE GET SOME MORE NEWS ON ORDERS FROM THE COMPANY!

Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven


Earnings for DFNS were released after the bell on Tuesday August 14th.

Overall it is pretty good news.

Highlights.... Margins are UP and company says will stay up. Revenue is nice at $5.6 million Didn't issue many more shares still under 29 million. Backlog still around $7 million after big revenues. Lowlights.... Taxes got WHACKED!!! Almost 50% taxes due to interest and issues dating back to 2002. I would like to know for sure if that is totally handled now? That is almost .01 EPS right there because of that. Currency exchange got hit on that. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A very good report based on what I see. Not an out of the park report due to the tax issues but very good.

Earnings were just under .02 (They rounded up to .02)

One of the reasons I wanted .025+ on earnings is because I think this will be DFNS biggest quarter for the year.

I don't foresee $1 any time soon. But I don't think it will hit .30 either.

As far as where it will go today I don't really know. Without the tax issue I think it could have hit the high.70's. Because of it could go down a some or up a little.

I may or may not exit some of my excess shares that I have if I get a good price for them. I WILL NOT SELL MY STOCKDOUBLING SHARES AT THIS TIME.

I will post more on today's price action after the market opens.
DFNS should probably also have a press release come out as well sometime today.

Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Interesting trading for DFNS

Good morning,

DFNS traded 30,000+ shares in the last 5 minutes of trading yesterday. Which is about 1/2 of what they did ALL DAY.

Most of it was at .62 as well. Although in the grand scheme of things that isn't a lot of volume overall its a nice sign that possibly someone knows something (or think they know something) and want to get in before the announcement.

Historically DFNS has been late on their filings more often then on time. We will see if they are on time this time around. I would think they would be based on the momentum that is gaining in the stock. It would be silly to be late this time around as it may get a few investors edgy about it.

Last November they released their earnings on the 14th (a day early) that is the only time I see in the last year+ they have done that. So I would think tomorrow would be the day. When they announce (before or after the bell) I have no idea.

But I think today would be the last full day to get the stock before the earnings release.

Maybe their problem will be its so much money to count they need a couple of extra days. LOL I could live with that I guess.

I still expect a 15th earnings release and .02+ EPS.

I'll keep you posted on things once the earnings are out. It will take me an hour or so to review the release and write up something for the blog.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven

Monday, August 13, 2007

Interesting week ahead

It should be an interesting week for stocks.

Not only on the whole stock market with the credit and interest rate issues but also and more importantly for us the stocks that I have a watch on.

It has been just over 4 months since our 5th pick for the stockdoubling blog. (April 9th)

Out of the 5 stocks mentioned at that time, 1 has doubled (TSSW) 1 is down (AYSI) and the other 3 are up (DFNS, CAGC,AIRI)

DFNS, CAGC, and AIRI all have their quarterly #'s release this week so it should be interesting.

I only own DFNS at this time. But I would expect to see good #'s from the other 2 as well. (Though I haven't really followed AIRI that much)

I think all 3 of those stocks will have BIG revenue increases the key will be if they can turn that into EARNINGS.

I have no idea what the earnings will be on any of the stocks. It will depend on if they are issuing more shares, more expenses than first thought etc..

On DFNS specifically the company continues to announce new orders and the CEO continues to say that things look good for the future. I will take him at his word if they are turning that new revenue into EARNINGS we have a winner. If not then we will have to wait it out for a while.

DFNS needs to announce by August 15th so we will see what happens then.
Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven

Thursday, August 9, 2007

August 9th news for the blog

I considered selling some shares in DFNS today at .62 (only for my IRA)

Currently I only have DFNS in both my stockdoubling account and my IRA I have no other stocks and no other money in my accounts so like I said I am ALL IN on DFNS.

I had my order in but it didn't get filled I was planning on purchases some shares of CAGC. They should come out with their Q2 August 15th as well. And historically that is their biggest quarter. Even though they have added a bunch of shares I still look for a monster quarter. It wasn't going to be a long term hold just look for a pop back to the $3.50-$3.80 range.

And the only reason I was going to do it is so I could be a bit diversified although I feel DFNS will have a monster quarter I don't want to necessary be at its mercy if it doesn't.

I am not willing to sell lower though so if I find an exit at .62 on DFNS prior to earnings I may still take it.
ONLY FOR 2700 shares in my IRA. I OWN OVER 15,000 SHARES.

8000 shares for the STOCKDOUBLING project which WON'T be sold until $1 unless otherwise noted.
2450 shares for a personal account that if all turns out well will be a nice trip for my wife this winter.
4700 shares for my IRA (of which I would sell 2700 to buy 500 shares of CAGC)

Anyway I didn't get the price I wanted so I didn't sell. I don't have an order in at this time if I do see that price I will sell some shares. (assuming CAGC doesn't come out with earnings prior to that.)

Thought I would keep you posted.

Dealing with that much money all in one stock and being that it is all my money at my brokers right now with none on the sidelines thought I would diversify a bit.

If I had only a couple thousand or less I wouldn't worry about it.


Talk to you friday
Steve Hoven

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

DFNS $1.2 million contract news

DFNS just came out with news on a new order.

$1.2 million new order should deliver in Q3.

here is some other notes about the news release.

"Joseph Postbinder, CEO of Defense Industries said: "We are extremely pleased with this initial order for this customer. An important factor in this customer's decision was our ability to deliver a competitive quality product in a prompt manner. In addition to enhancing our momentum in the Israeli military market, we have been focusing our efforts on expanding our international reach. Our sales and marketing efforts are already paying off, as we are receiving new orders from new significant customers world-wide. Moreover, as we noted at the beginning of the year, when we announced our first orders from the Israeli Defense Ministry, we are continuing to witness a shift in the Israeli Defense Ministry's attitude towards the importance of personal military protective equipment. We see the stream of orders from the Israeli Defense Ministry as an ongoing source of revenues for us and we anticipate significant growth opportunities in this domestic military market segment in the future."

You can view the entire news release at

This $1.2 million and the $1.5 million news a couple weeks ago is great news. Based on past margins (doesn't mean they will get those margins on these orders.) these 2 orders mean $2.7 million in revenue and mean almost $500,000 of gross earnings. That is .01-.015 gross earnings per share. And in the .01 EPS which at a 10x PE is a .10 move in the stock.

6 more trading days until the Q2 release.

DFNS went from 0 volume to about 50,000 volume in 30 minutes on the news and is up a few cents.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Blowout or disappointing? No inbetween

The more I think and look at DFNS.

I think DFNS will either have a blowout quarter or a very disappointing quarter. I don't think it will be anywhere in between.

By a blowout quarter I mean $5+ million in revenue and .02+ in EPS.
By a disappoint quarter I mean $4 million or less in revenue and breakeven or lower EPS.

The more I look at the #'s I see myself either being dead on with the positive #'s. Or WAY OFF which would be the disappointing #'s. I also don't like the reaction the share price has been giving lately now under .60 again.

I think after the #'s we will either see .80's for share prices on a blowout quarter or .40's for a disappointing quarter.

Based on the comments from management I would tend to still say they will be blowout. However the key is can they turn the revenue into earnings!!

7 more trading days until we find out.

As far as the monthly stock selections (3 picks a month etc..) I still have plans for that but I don't want to unroll that until I have the time needed to provide all the picks etc.. Doing the research etc.. So it will probably be the tail end of August before that is going to be released.

have a great trading day
Steve Hoven

Monday, August 6, 2007


Here is a 1 year chart of DFNS with some additional thoughts from me.
Just click the image for a bigger picture.
have a good day
Steve Hoven

Friday, August 3, 2007

StockDoubling Weekend

Hello StockDoubling members,

8 more trading days for DFNS. Before the big news arrives. Hopefully its really good news for us.

Those that are now just following us check out the April 9th edition of the blog at for information on DFNS.

If the news is good picking it up at .59 should be good trade. If the news is bad it could be a little while before we see those prices again.

We will see how it works out. Just put yourself in front of good opportunities hopefully this is one of them.

Remember to check out the site today or early Saturday.

I will be raising the price on Saturday to $97. (Currently just $47)

It is almost 1 hour worth of videos on how I find stocks to buy for my own account and for the stockdoubling project. If you plan on trading for years to come it is a great tool to use to evaluate stocks.

Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Donations, Beforeitmoves, DFNS sign?

Thank you for all those who have donated to the project lately I appreciate it.

For those of you who don't know I have a donation link on the site. If you feel so inclined based on your results of trading to donate to site check out the bottom of the page.

We are a free site as of now and the donations help keep it that way. Stock Video ebook price will be raised on Saturday at some point. I got the clearance from clickbank so it will be ready to move up to its new price on Saturday.

In the videos I show you exactly how I find stocks myself to trade.

Here is a portion of a testimonial I recently received about the videos...

"Good Morning Steve and Greetings from New ZealandI purchased the stock doubling video as soon as you put it on the market.Just wanted to say thanks. I am have a ball with it. I even run all thespam stock picks thru it for practice and can see them for what they are.The biggest benefit to me is the knowledge I am gaining by researching theshort list.Keep up the good work Steve you are doing a great job.Regards Rod M." remember we offer an 8 week money back guarantee.

As far as DFNS I don't expect any big movement one way or the other before the Q2 earnings release (August 15th). I wouldn't think they would put out another press release prior to earnings. (If they had another release I would put it after Q2 earnings to get more momentum from the press release just my opinion.)

Watch a day or two prior to August 15th if their is good volume and an up or down direction in the stock at that time it may be an indication of where the stock is going. (someone may have gotten wind of news.)

Have a great Thursday.
Steve Hoven

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

2 weeks from TODAY!

2 weeks to go before DFNS needs to report their Q2 #'s.

They can report early. In the past though they have been on the deadline day OR have been late.

When they are late though they tend to post in the report stating their late what the #'s are as far as revenue and earnings.

No idea if they will release the #'s after the bell or before the bell or what.

Here is a breakdown of what I think the stock could do based on different earnings #'s. A lot more goes into it. But I didn't have a lot to say in today's blog so I thought I would post this.

If they do .03+ EPS for the quarter I think the stock goes to .90-$1+
If they do .02+ EPS for the quarter I think the stock goes to the .70-.90 range.
If they do less then .02 EPS for the quarter I think the stock goes to the .50-.70 range.
If they do less then .01EPS for the quarter I think it goes to .40-.50's range.

I personally feel the .02+EPS for the quarter or .70-.90 range is doable. Which if I am right today's prices of .61 are a good deal. But I am hoping for .03EPS.

I don't think the risk is much less then .40 unless they come out with a losing quarter or something. Even at .40 that is about 20% down on the stock so we wouldn't be down too bad. Not the direction I want to go but still lots of room for error at least right now.

Have a great day.
10 more trading days until Q2!

Remember the stock videos price goes up later this week.

Steve Hoven