Sorry its been a while since last update.
I have been busy with Mike Huckabee campaign stuff, LazyTrading stuff, and the monthly project. Nothing really has changed from my recent comments on DFNS which you need to review.
I wanted to review this last StockDoubling pick of DFNS and the "other stocks" which were picked on April 9th. Which was just over 6 months ago.
You can review that days blog by clicking the link below to read my thoughts on each stock at that time etc..
http://stockdoubling.blogspot.com/2007/04/dfns-5th-pick-for-stockdoublingcom.html
The prices next to the stock are the April 9th prices. Only DFNS did I enter at that time so that is actual entry. The rest are based on the previous days close
DFNS .50 Since then the High has been .70 (Up as much as 40%) and the low has been .46 (Down as much as 8%). Currently the stock is the mid to upper .50's. You can read more about DFNS in recent posts.
GLDS .275 The symbol on this stock changed to AIRI. Since that time the stock has hit a high of .42 (Up as much as 52%) and a low of .22 (Down as much as 20%). Currently the stock is in the upper .20's.
AYSI .67 Since then the High has been .78 (up as much as 16%) and the low has been .30 (Down as much as 55%) Currently the stock is in the mid .60's. As we stated back on April 9th. It had run up quick so their was some risk for a correction. And it did correct but WAY too much. I bought in the upper .30's on the correction and sold a few weeks later in the mid .40's.
TSSW .76 Since then the high has been $2.09 (up as much as 175%) and the low has been .72 (Down as much as 5%). By far this has been the winner of the group. Being up the most and down the least. It took off only a few weeks after our post. Consolidated a bit a month or so ago and has taken off again. Currently the stock is around $2. This was a more than DOUBLE!!
CAGC $2.90 Since then the High has been $6.25 (up as much as 115%) and the low has been $2.05 (Down as much as 29%) Currently the stock is around $5.50. I bought when it came back down to the $2.40 level and road it up for a few weeks exiting in the $5's!! As I said back on April 9th. "As far as safety and longer term play I think this will probably be the one." And it has produced very well.
So out of the 5 stocks 2 of them have doubled within 6 months.
DFNS has been firmly up basically the whole time (though only around 10-20% for the most part.)
GLDS (AIRI) is also up but had to deal with some down times.
AYSI was a double from where I actually bought it in the mid .30's but not from the .67 levels.
Each of the stocks if you would have bought them back then you would currently be up nicely on all of them but AYSI (which is roughly break-even)
Again the project is to find 1 stock a year that doubles. Not in 3 months or 6 months but 1 year! We got spoiled on our early successes of GNBT, PSIT, AND HIHO. DFNS has taken longer then expect that is for sure. I still think we will do well with the stock though even if we have to endure a down faze to the .40's. I think if it did sell off it would have the same kind of reaction of a CAGC or AYSI has had where it gets in some bottom buyers and DFNS will again move up.
Unless the company really has a HORRIBLE Q3 DFNS should do at least $17.5 million for the year. With 29 million shares outstanding a 1 to 1 Price/sales ratio is .60 stock. It should also do at least .06 EPS for the year I would think closer to .07-.08. And it is growing so unless growth just dries up I think we have a winner. Say they do $17.5 million this year and grow 30% next year. (They grew 60-70% this year) That is roughly a $23 million in revenue and a .80 share price for 1 to 1 price to sales assuming the same 29 million shares. And if they earn .07 EPS this year and grow 30% next year that is .09 EPS for the year. At 12x PE that is $1.08 stock.
That of course is a long way away so a lot can still happen. But unless the wheels fall off sales or they can't handle expenses I still think DFNS will do well going forward.
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Friday, October 26, 2007
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
DFNS THOUGHTS
DFNS has a little bit of action today.
It hit a low of .55 today and has been in the .55-.56 range. Sometimes the ask bumps up to .58.
I bought 2,000 shares yesterday at .56 for my IRA and last week bought 1000 at .58 for my IRA.
Not much has changed from my post a few weeks ago.
I feel the company needs to come out with some positive news prior to their Q3 to get the thing moving. If no announcment comes I feel that a disappointment could be in store for Q3 #'s and could send the stock to the .40's.
If we do get an announcement I think we could be in the .60's prior to Q3 and move up nicely from there should we get a positive Q3 announcement.
The company should do $17-18 million in revenue for the year. It has roughly 29 million shares outstanding. So a .60 stock price would put the Price to sales at roughly 1. It has a book around .20 so Price to book is around 3. They have earned .035 roughly for the year so far I would think they could do .07-.08 for the year depending on how Q3 is. At .07 EPS for the year a .60 stock price would be 8.5x P/E. Growing at the rate that DFNS is growing at least this year I would think a 12x PE would be reasonable for them. Which would mean roughly .84 share price. I think if they could earn close to .10 EPS for next year and get a 12x PE you are talking over $1.20 share price. Which if they get the orders wouldn't take too much.
The question though is can they keep expenses under control? If they have a breakeven or losing quarter for Q3 this stock will probably go down to the low .40's if not lower. It has been a stalled stock as of late and a lot of people are feeling antsy so that is why we have drifted down as we have.
I still have a lot of faith in DFNS. I think their investor relations is lacking for sure and should offer more support that way. But that is one of the drawbacks as well when the CEO owns the majority of the shares.
This month will determine whether we see low .40's or mid .70's+.
Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
It hit a low of .55 today and has been in the .55-.56 range. Sometimes the ask bumps up to .58.
I bought 2,000 shares yesterday at .56 for my IRA and last week bought 1000 at .58 for my IRA.
Not much has changed from my post a few weeks ago.
I feel the company needs to come out with some positive news prior to their Q3 to get the thing moving. If no announcment comes I feel that a disappointment could be in store for Q3 #'s and could send the stock to the .40's.
If we do get an announcement I think we could be in the .60's prior to Q3 and move up nicely from there should we get a positive Q3 announcement.
The company should do $17-18 million in revenue for the year. It has roughly 29 million shares outstanding. So a .60 stock price would put the Price to sales at roughly 1. It has a book around .20 so Price to book is around 3. They have earned .035 roughly for the year so far I would think they could do .07-.08 for the year depending on how Q3 is. At .07 EPS for the year a .60 stock price would be 8.5x P/E. Growing at the rate that DFNS is growing at least this year I would think a 12x PE would be reasonable for them. Which would mean roughly .84 share price. I think if they could earn close to .10 EPS for next year and get a 12x PE you are talking over $1.20 share price. Which if they get the orders wouldn't take too much.
The question though is can they keep expenses under control? If they have a breakeven or losing quarter for Q3 this stock will probably go down to the low .40's if not lower. It has been a stalled stock as of late and a lot of people are feeling antsy so that is why we have drifted down as we have.
I still have a lot of faith in DFNS. I think their investor relations is lacking for sure and should offer more support that way. But that is one of the drawbacks as well when the CEO owns the majority of the shares.
This month will determine whether we see low .40's or mid .70's+.
Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Thursday, October 11, 2007
OUT OF CAGC AT $5.20 116% PROFIT
I just sold my CAGC shares at $5.20.
Bought at $2.40 on August 17th.
That is a 116% profit in less then 2 months. I will take that. If it continues to run GREAT. But I am fine with that kind of return.
TATTF having a nice day so far as well.
Right now I only own 2 stocks
DFNS for the stockdoubling project. (And some shares in my IRA)
And
TATTF for the monthly stockdoubling project.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Bought at $2.40 on August 17th.
That is a 116% profit in less then 2 months. I will take that. If it continues to run GREAT. But I am fine with that kind of return.
TATTF having a nice day so far as well.
Right now I only own 2 stocks
DFNS for the stockdoubling project. (And some shares in my IRA)
And
TATTF for the monthly stockdoubling project.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
CAGC WOW!!!
Just 2 days ago I wrote about CAGC and said I thought it was still a good investment over the next 6-18 months with a target of $5-$7. Well it took off yesterday and almost hit $5 already!
I got in on August 17th less than 2 months ago at $2.40 which is a double in price based on yesterdays close.
I will monitor it today if we get higher prices above $5 per share I may consider an exit at that point. That was my target anyway and if its going to give me those kind of profits that quickly then I will take it. I probably won't sell for less than $5 though. I still think it is solid going forward and will do well. So I am not going to give it away.
TATTF which is the stock for the monthly project also did well yesterday that is up roughly 16% from my purchase price just 2 weeks ago.
DFNS had a little bit more volume a few more 10,000 share blocks are trading which is good and now it is in the higher end of the .50's range. That is the only stock that I have held lately that hasn't done really well. So maybe its due for a nice move coming we will see.
I will let you know what I do with CAGC.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I got in on August 17th less than 2 months ago at $2.40 which is a double in price based on yesterdays close.
I will monitor it today if we get higher prices above $5 per share I may consider an exit at that point. That was my target anyway and if its going to give me those kind of profits that quickly then I will take it. I probably won't sell for less than $5 though. I still think it is solid going forward and will do well. So I am not going to give it away.
TATTF which is the stock for the monthly project also did well yesterday that is up roughly 16% from my purchase price just 2 weeks ago.
DFNS had a little bit more volume a few more 10,000 share blocks are trading which is good and now it is in the higher end of the .50's range. That is the only stock that I have held lately that hasn't done really well. So maybe its due for a nice move coming we will see.
I will let you know what I do with CAGC.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Not available today
I will be gone today at the GOP debate in Dearborn MI.
So if DFNS takes off or tanks or CAGC or TATTF do anything you will be on your own today.
You can watch the debate on cnbc at 4pm though or MSNBC at 9pm. It will also be streamed live on the cnbc site at www.cnbc.com
Go Mike Huckabee Go.
It should be a lot of fun
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
So if DFNS takes off or tanks or CAGC or TATTF do anything you will be on your own today.
You can watch the debate on cnbc at 4pm though or MSNBC at 9pm. It will also be streamed live on the cnbc site at www.cnbc.com
Go Mike Huckabee Go.
It should be a lot of fun
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Monday, October 8, 2007
CAGC moving today
CAGC is up nicely today 17% as of this writing.
I don't see any news release but the volume is strong. Maybe a buyer coming in and felt any price below X was a deal I don't know.
I will take it though its up almost 40% since the purchase back a month + ago at $2.40. Still at these levels is a good price if willing to hold 6-18 months. I think $5-7 is a real possiblity in that time.
DFNS still hanging around the .55-.60 levels. Not much will change unless holders get sick of holding and dump their shares. Or the company comes out with another order release which would send the stock above .60 again I think. Otherwise we will be caught in the .55-.60 range more than likely.
TATTF (a stock for the monthly project is up nicely over the last 2 weeks.)
Thank you for taking part in the poll. I will have additional ones in the future.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I don't see any news release but the volume is strong. Maybe a buyer coming in and felt any price below X was a deal I don't know.
I will take it though its up almost 40% since the purchase back a month + ago at $2.40. Still at these levels is a good price if willing to hold 6-18 months. I think $5-7 is a real possiblity in that time.
DFNS still hanging around the .55-.60 levels. Not much will change unless holders get sick of holding and dump their shares. Or the company comes out with another order release which would send the stock above .60 again I think. Otherwise we will be caught in the .55-.60 range more than likely.
TATTF (a stock for the monthly project is up nicely over the last 2 weeks.)
Thank you for taking part in the poll. I will have additional ones in the future.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Friday, October 5, 2007
The stock market
China stocks have been hot lately.
Some of the stocks I have looked at in the past or owned in the past have really moved over the last couple of weeks. They can be very rewarding and very scary at the same time.
We have a new poll on our blog check it out and vote it is on the left hand side.
DFNS is asking .56 right now. Which is tempting but I think could come down a few more cents. If it does I will probably buy some more for my IRA.
The next month will be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR THE STOCK.
I think we need to see some kind of good news IE a new order BEFORE the Q3 earnings.
That will get the momentum going and assuming Q3 is strong we can spring up to the .70's-.80+.
If we don't get any news I think its going to be tough for a HUGE move up after Q3. I would also be cautious about what Q3 will say. This is a company that is based on new orders coming in. And although they have said demand is strong it can dry up in a hurry for numerous reasons.
So if their isn't an announcement about a new order by NOV 9TH. I would worried about the prospects of this stock. I don't think the downside is a ton unless of course they come out with a horrible Q3. IE losing money etc.. But I don't think the upside is around the corner either if they can't close some additional orders.
If you haven't checked out the monthly stock picks you really need to they have been on FIRE. Our current pick is up roughly 8% in just over a week. (TATTF)
http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Some of the stocks I have looked at in the past or owned in the past have really moved over the last couple of weeks. They can be very rewarding and very scary at the same time.
We have a new poll on our blog check it out and vote it is on the left hand side.
DFNS is asking .56 right now. Which is tempting but I think could come down a few more cents. If it does I will probably buy some more for my IRA.
The next month will be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR THE STOCK.
I think we need to see some kind of good news IE a new order BEFORE the Q3 earnings.
That will get the momentum going and assuming Q3 is strong we can spring up to the .70's-.80+.
If we don't get any news I think its going to be tough for a HUGE move up after Q3. I would also be cautious about what Q3 will say. This is a company that is based on new orders coming in. And although they have said demand is strong it can dry up in a hurry for numerous reasons.
So if their isn't an announcement about a new order by NOV 9TH. I would worried about the prospects of this stock. I don't think the downside is a ton unless of course they come out with a horrible Q3. IE losing money etc.. But I don't think the upside is around the corner either if they can't close some additional orders.
If you haven't checked out the monthly stock picks you really need to they have been on FIRE. Our current pick is up roughly 8% in just over a week. (TATTF)
http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Monday, October 1, 2007
Update on a few stocks etc...
Happy Monday Morning,
1. AYSI has moved up a bunch today. We got out of the stock for a nice profit a couple of weeks ago at .44. (bought at .37) it hit a high of .69 today! If you stayed in that stock CONGRATS! A lot of volume with that stock not something I am interested in right now but a nice recovery from prices in the mid .30's.
2. DFNS just closed their 3rd quarter yesterday so we have to wait 45 days to hear what their 3rd quarter results will be. I would hope between now and then though we would see some announcements for additional orders etc.. We are still in profit with the stock so we have some wiggle room. But would hope for some prices in the low-mid .60's before the announcement I don't know if we will get their though without news.
3. CAGC also just closed their 3rd quarter yesterday. This will be a VERY important quarter for them. They would need to see some very good #'s in order for their estimates to hold true. I think after their 3rd quarter announcement (Nov. 15th) you will see this stock close to $4 or below $2. If they are bad I think people will just bail and move on. If its good they will jump on board. I am looking more for a 6-18 month investment so I will take the bumps in the road plus I have a good fill at $2.40 per share.
4. If you are interested in Forex Trading. I have my Forex trading software available for the next 2 weeks.
It can be found at www.LazyTrading.com It has a 8 week money back guarantee and 90 day Instant messenger support with me. Check it out if you are interested in forex trading.
Have a good trading day,
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
1. AYSI has moved up a bunch today. We got out of the stock for a nice profit a couple of weeks ago at .44. (bought at .37) it hit a high of .69 today! If you stayed in that stock CONGRATS! A lot of volume with that stock not something I am interested in right now but a nice recovery from prices in the mid .30's.
2. DFNS just closed their 3rd quarter yesterday so we have to wait 45 days to hear what their 3rd quarter results will be. I would hope between now and then though we would see some announcements for additional orders etc.. We are still in profit with the stock so we have some wiggle room. But would hope for some prices in the low-mid .60's before the announcement I don't know if we will get their though without news.
3. CAGC also just closed their 3rd quarter yesterday. This will be a VERY important quarter for them. They would need to see some very good #'s in order for their estimates to hold true. I think after their 3rd quarter announcement (Nov. 15th) you will see this stock close to $4 or below $2. If they are bad I think people will just bail and move on. If its good they will jump on board. I am looking more for a 6-18 month investment so I will take the bumps in the road plus I have a good fill at $2.40 per share.
4. If you are interested in Forex Trading. I have my Forex trading software available for the next 2 weeks.
It can be found at www.LazyTrading.com It has a 8 week money back guarantee and 90 day Instant messenger support with me. Check it out if you are interested in forex trading.
Have a good trading day,
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
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