Tuesday, August 19, 2008


DFNS came out with their 10Q report on friday...

A few things.....

1. It looks like they lost some of the backlog orders with the Israel Defense Ministry which is bad news. They did get an additional $1.6 million order it looks like though.

2. They said that the IDM orders should remain steady so I would figure $1.2-$1.6 million each quarter for the next couple quarters.

3. Local civilian and Export Military were both up a good deal which helped.

4. They aren't making money on their existing business. The reason they had a profit was due to a payment from the Israel gov't for leaving a couple years back.

5. in 2006 and prior basically this was a company that did $10 million a year and EPS was anywhere from (.03) to .01. Are we going back to that type of stock and was 2007 just a fluke?

6. 2008 will be more than $10 million but FAR less than last years $19 million. Probably in the $14+ million range I would guess.

7. I don't understand why they would take a $250k loan when they got the cash. I know the cash didn't come until later but $250k shouldn't need that and then they got another one they didn't utlize. And why post a NT 10Q and than a few hours later post the 10Q?

8. Personally I think its run like a mom and pop type deal. The CEO owns most of the shares so he controls everything and don't really care that much about the other 30% or so. If they did why not announce the $1.6 million IDM order?

9. Its a nice book value but they aren't doing enough to MAKE $$$ and not telling their story to anyone to get the share price up.

10. "Since January 2008, we have experienced an increased demand for armored vehicles, from central and south African countries. We believe that the armor car business is growing and will become even more significant for us by the end of 2008. The armor car business is characterized by higher gross margins than our traditional military products. " (PAGE 13)
So Maybe that will mean a couple million in revenue from that this year.

11. an $1.7 million increase in inventories in order to support future sales, new product lines and also reflects the production of a significant amount of finished and semi finished products that were delivered at the beginning of the third quarter," (PAGE 18)
So maybe we will get an UPWARD suprise for Q3?

DFNS didn't trade much on Monday. From this report I don't see any RUSH to buy the stock at these levels. I think it could pop to the .40's but ONLY if they announce some news. And the company don't seem to want to do much of that.
It could fade to the lower .20's and maybe even teens I don't know. At these point they have still lost .01 for the year based on continued operations and their margins haven't improved so I don't know that they will breakeven or earn a penny or two for the year but not much more.

Part of me wants to just dump it and be done with it. If the book value wasn't in the low .40's I probably would. But since the book is over .40 I am not going to dump it in the low .20's. They also have a decent amount of cash for a company this size just depends on what they do with it.

Its always up to you what you want to do with it. At this point I am staying with it, disappointed yes but going to stick it out for a while yet.

Next earnings release won't be until mid November. So unless the company comes out with additional news you won't hear from them for about 3 months.


TATTF came out with their report as well.

They don't have a 10Q I guess cause they are an Israel company so they only come out with revenue earnings etc..
They made a little more revenue but not as much profit.
Still they have .44 for the year so far and I think .80 isn't out of the question.
At 10x P/E its an $8 stock.

I wish they put in their stockholder equity as I think its close to $10 but I am not sure.

TATTF went up after the intital report and went down Monday. I think its a $8-$10 stock in the next few months.


Friday, August 15, 2008


DFNS is delaying their 10Q.
But they did report they did $4,477,086 in revenue

And $195,000 in net income.

The one thing that worries me a little is.... Does that $195k INCLUDE
any payments from the Israel gov't for moving their operations out of
gaza strip. If this is included than OUCH.

If not and those #'s are only based on continued operations than we are
at breakeven earnings for the year.

Not a great quarter by any means on earnings side. .01 is a little
misleading as it is really about .0067 EPS they just round it up to

book value may have gone up a little bit but it is all about the
earnings. I will be waiting to see the 10Q which will probably come in
a week or two.

Hopefully they talk about future prospects though.

Otherwise will probably end up in the $14-$15 million revenue for the
year and maybe .01-.02 EPS for the year. Which on a PE ratio trading in
the .20's is fairly valued. Especially for a company whos revenue is
falling. I understand they got the book value but lack of talking with
investors doesn't get investors excited at all either.

I still would love to see a buyback especially at these levels. They
could pick up 10% of the outstanding shares and about 30% of the float
for less than $1 million. And they would still have plenty of money to
play with.

Its a trading range bound stock until....

Company talks to its investors,
or big order news comes out.

I am holding for right now.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008


Updates on the 2 stocks I own.

First on DFNS.

Nothing new on it. Still in the upper .20's and light volume.

They are due to report Q2 earnings on the 15th which is Friday. I would imagine though they will be late and not report until Monday (or later) of Next week.

Its hard to say what the #'s will be DFNS doesn't like to give out much information so its hard to say. Hopefully the margins improved though and we will see some profits again. I would LOVE to see .02 EPS for the quarter. But I am not sure that we will see that. Whatever the company does, what will move the stock is what the company has to SAY about about performance. If they don't say anything then we may just be treading water for a while.

The book value is still in the low .40's and they still should do $14-$15 million for the year I think. The company has a current market cap of under $8 million so its a good deal at these levels I think. Just have to have some patience with this stock. Which I am kind of running out of especially at the levels I bought at. Those getting in at these levels for the first time though I think will make out pretty well. Unless the company makes some MAJOR blunders.

So we will wait until Q2 earnings come out and hope for the best.

The other stock I am in is TATTF. (not for the stockdoubling project)
I have an average position in the low $7's I believe it is. And bought it about 2 months ago.
You can read all the stats I did on it on the previous blog entries.
But it fell to the low to mid $5 range in July but in the last couple of weeks has moved back up a little bit and as of this writing is trading at $6.20 per share.

They own 8.1 million shares of LIMC which should report earnings by the 15th of August. So if the earnings are good from LIMC that stock should move and so should TATTF.
TATTF is also due to report their own earnings on August 15th that being a friday they each may wait until after the bell on Friday I am not sure.

TATTF earnings will be off last years I am pretty sure but TATTF is just a value play.
They have a marketcap of about $41 million. However their investment in LIMC by itself is worth about $38 million. So the markets are only valuing TATTF assets, cash, other businesses at $3 million which crazy.
TATTF should be trading at $8-$10 per share right now easy I think and eventually I think the market will prove that out assuming my #s are right and the company doesn't crumble.

I will update you when they come out with their earnings.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven