Monday, April 30, 2007
Any additional thoughts you would like to see please let me know NOW so I can include them in the videos/ebook.
Their will be a small fee ($47-$97) for this ebook/videos but hopefully will be quite complete. And some bonuses for those that are currently on the list etc...
Please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org with anything you would like to see in the videos and ebook so I might include them.
Thank you for all the comments on the videos etc.. I hope you have had a chance to view them. If not check them out on last weeks blog posting.
Have a great Monday
Friday, April 27, 2007
I have made another video last night that goes over the 5 stocks I have purchased for the StockDoubling.com project over the last 18 months.
You will see the charts of the 5 stocks with the buy and sell points and some of my comments.
You can find it at
Have a great day and enjoy your weekend.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
These are the same things I do when I look for my stockdoubling.com pick.
PLEASE GIVE ME YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE VIDEO. Whether you would like to see more of them, if it was helpful to you etc.. Just leave a comment on this blog or drop me an email.
Here is the link to the video
Have a great day
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
TSSW (one of my OTHER stocks http://stockdoubling.blogspot.com/2007/04/dfns-5th-pick-for-stockdoublingcom.html ) released Q1 earnings already and they are pretty good.
They improved their revenues and their earnings are .03 for the quarter. If they could do .03 each quarter that is a .12 EPS. (They only did .06 EPS last year) I was figuring .10 EPS for the year. (which still could be the case I don't know.)
But assuming .12 EPS at 10x PE it is a $1.20 stock. At 15x PE its a $1.80 stock.
They announced about a week ago they bought some more software to roll out additional products etc.. They feel strongly that the revenue and earnings will continue to grow over this next year.
It didn't come back down at all like I had hoped in order to purchase some shares. I don't own the stock but it looks like a winner over the next year.
Its over $1 now. A nice stock for those who got in it. Too bad I wasn't able to.
I think DFNS will have the same type of gain when they announce Q1 in mid May.
If you haven't looked at the results of some of the OTHER stocks from the past make sure you check out the FREE EBOOK at www.StockDoubling.net/ebook
Have a great day
Monday, April 23, 2007
Hope your weekend was nice. It was nice and warm here so I got to enjoy some outdoors which was nice.
Still fighting a cold though I guess I should probably start eating right instead of junk all the time that might help.
I wanted to talk a little bit about the 5 stocks.
DFNS is up from the original post looking for a good Q1 in the coming weeks. They announced another order last week so holding on for a couple quarters should do us well.
The OTHER STOCKS....
GLDS is up the biggest % of them all so far from .275 to .40 today. They are closing their deals to buy the other companies. It will have a lot more shares outstanding but will revenue and can they get profitable?
AYSI this stock is the only one down of the 5. It had a major runup this year though so it was due for a bit of a fall. I actually hope it would fall into the low .50's after their Q2 and if Q2 #'s look ok then maybe pick it up there.
TSSW this stock is up a little bit. (The spread is big) Announced they bought another software packages which should increase revenues going forward etc.. If I was able to purchase in the .60 range I would probably be interested there.
CAGC this stock moved up on light volume. Is still up since my original post but has come down off its $3.70 area. A good stock they have an investment forum tomorrow in NYC which may or may not move the shares. I do own a few shares in my IRA. If they can continue to grow I think its a great stock to put away for a while. Good risk/reward for longer term investing. (12-36 months)
Have a good day
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Q1 and Q2 of 2006 DFNS only had $1.8 million in revenue each quarter.
With all the orders, backlog, and smaller orders (that they don't announce). I would expect DFNS would have 150-200% revenue growth for Q1 and Q2.
150% revenue growth for the quarter would mean roughly $4.5 million in revenue.
200% revenue growth for the quarter would mean roughly $5.4 million in revenue.
Depending on when the orders finish. (Some could have fallen in April which is Q2)
Either way I would expect to see some good growth and would be disappointed if I don't see at least $8-$10 million in revenue for the first 2 quarters.
Q3 could be pretty good as well.
I see no reason why DFNS shouldn't do at least $15-$20 million for the year. (They did a little over $10 million in 2006) So the growth should be pretty good.
Now hopefully they can earn a couple cents per share in Q1 and Q2 and this stock will take off.
May 15th is when they will have to release their Q1 #'s. Hopefully before then we will get some more news on orders etc...
The stock went up nicely yesterday on the news. Though seems pretty dead this morning so far. Its only .06 from its highs set back in Feb. And IF todays close is good we should test .60-.63 range in the coming week or two I would think.
Have a good day
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
I have gotten this question many times over the last 18 months since I started the StockDoubling.com Project. (Wow its only been 18 months it feels like longer then that.)
The easiest way to answer that is I look for VALUE.
Their are stocks trading that I feel are undervalued, fairly valued, and overvalued. Of course this is all based on the #'s that I look at. I am not saying I have the PERFECT valuation for all stocks. Their are stocks out their that will always be undervalued on paper but are really dogs because of one thing or another. And other stocks that I feel are EXTREMELY OVERVALUED continue to go higher and higher.
This is what works for me and that is all I can go by. I can't take someone else valuations and use it for my own trading as that may not suit my type of trading or risk factors.
When I go looking for stocks whether it be just looking in Barrons or on message boards I look for the doubling factor. Does the stock have the ability to double in the coming 12 months. In other words if the stock has traded between $1.50-2.25 for the last 2 years and doesn't move much and is currently at $2 per share more than likely I am not going to look at that stock. I don't want to be sitting in a stock for years even if it is undervalued but if NO ONE knows about it, it will always be undervalued.
I want to see some movement so as to know that people are following the stock. Even if its at its lows for the year I don't care at least I know people did own it and sold it and may jump back in if things turn around etc..
I look at value thru a couple different data sources. The one I will talk about today is book value. ( I use yahoo finance for a lot of my data it will show you book value as well under key stats when you type in symbol of the company you are looking at. It isn't always accurate but it gives you a rough idea. You will have to look at recent 10Q's for the company for exact #'s.)
Book value is all the company's assets minus all the company's debt. (Hopefully they will have a positive book value.)
A great example of this was my 2nd pick PSIT.
At the time when I picked the stock the company had a book value of $2.12. But the stock was only trading at .76 per share.
(Their are different things that go into book value as far how much cash they have, true assets vs goodwill etc.. which I won't get into a great deal here.)
So the company had a worth of over $2 per share yet the stock was trading at less than .80 that was good value. Does that mean its a good stock to buy? NO!!! I don't base what I look at always on book value. But it is something that I do look at and I think is important.
Other factors that went into my decision for PSIT were price to sales and the fact they were growing revenues at a good clip.
They had a market cap of roughly $10 million and the company was doing over $80 million in revenue. And they were looking to do $90 million in the coming year.
Their book value was actually going DOWN by about .25-30 per quarter. But revenue was increasing at a good rate.
They were still losing money each quarter but being a company that I projected would do $90 million in revenue and the company was only worth $10 million. And they had a book value of $2+ a share I thought it was a great stock.
And PSIT proved me right. (I got out on a big rally one day however since that one day PSIT has continue to move upward)
Actually it is about 11 months since I originally purchased PSIT for the StockDoubling.com project. I bought it on May 24th 2006. As of today April 17th the stock is at $1.90. (FYI the PSIT finished with $91 million in revenue for 2006 so I was in the ballpark)
Had PSIT not been growing but had a good book value. (Say I forecasted them to do $65 million in revenue for 2006 instead of $90 million) Then book value really isn't that important because they aren't growing their business anyway and they will be losing money quarter after quarter.
So their is NEVER only 1 thing that matters. Their has got to be more than just 1 thing otherwise it won't make my list.
So far all 4 of my stock picks for the project (Not including DFNS) I have exited the stock in about 4 months or less. (GNBT, PSIT were in 4 months, HIHO was 2.5 months, ATSX about 2 months)
Exiting all the stocks that quickly is GREAT the problem comes in when it happens so fast you lose the vision of what the point of the project is. Which is to find 1 stock per YEAR to double. And so far we have been fortunate enough where we have only had to wait 4 months. Sometimes it will take longer though so patience is key. The PSIT entry was only 11 months ago but since that time I have entered 3 other stocks (HIHO, ATSX, DFNS) that is why it seems so long ago to me. I have to be careful in that not to rush the project faster than it needs to go.
Watch book value it is one of the things I look for when picking stocks!
Monday, April 16, 2007
I appreciate the comments I am receiving about what you would like to see on the blog. If you have any additional comments please use the comments section or email me at email@example.com
Many of you have asked for comments on how I pick stocks and updates on the "other stocks" as well.
I went to my tax man today and gave him all the paperwork he should have it done tomorrow. (At least he better LOL) Once that is behind me I have a couple of small loose ends to finish up on a few other things but later this week I should hopefully start writing an ebook about EXACT step by step of what I do to look for stocks etc.. Hopefully if time permits I may even have video and audio for it as well. The finished ebook will be weeks if not months down the road but I hope to put some of the product here on the blog for everyone to look at and learn from.
For those of you new readers check out my free ebook how I turned $500 into $4000 in 14 months at www.StockDoubling.NET
Enjoy the rest of your Monday.
Friday, April 13, 2007
More coverage of the other stocks?
More articles on stock trading?
Show me how to pick stocks?
Penny Stock coverage?
Please let me know via email or leave comments on this blog. I would love to hear what you would like to see on this StockDoubling site each day.
Have a great weekend and would love to hear your comments.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
I am happy to give my opinion on certain stocks etc.. But if you want indepth research on a certain stock like the research I do in finding my StockDoubling pick I ask that you would go to www.StockDoubling.INFO and fill out the form there.
I am still working on my taxes. (All this has motivated me to get better organized on that stuff for next year that is for sure.)
I have a couple of ideas I am kicking around once the taxes are taken care of.
Which hopefully will benefit every ones Stock trading and research ability.
Have a great day talk again tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
It has done over 750,000 volume in the last 3 days. (And not due to my coverage) Which is WAY higher than normal.
Its about a month prior to their Q1 report will come out. (by May 15th) We should see some big revenue increases and hopefully a penny or two for net earnings. If that happens we will be looking very good. If they aren't able to earn a profit with all this added revenue then this stock may not go anywhere.
Maybe over the next month prior to the news release they will announce additional orders. We will have to wait and see.
I have 2 different accounts a Roth IRA for retirement and an individual account which is what I use for the StockDoubling project. I own 8000 shares of DFNS for the StockDoubling.com project and 1500 shares in my Roth. I also own other stocks in my Roth and look for longer term gains in my Roth.
One stock I would suggest looking at if you are looking for a stock over the next couple of years is HIHO. (It was my 3rd stock pick for the StockDoubling.com project. It is back down to the prices where I originally bought.)
I don't feel it will be a double in 12 months otherwise I would have picked it again. I do think though over the next 24+ months you could see a double from current prices. I think they can grow at 30% over the next couple of years. The stock price usually tends to come down a bit in the spring ahead of their Annual report which comes out in late June. And they usually announce a dividend in early July.
I do own this stock in my Roth and plan on buying some more if it comes down to the $4 area over the next month or two. They have a book value of $3.50 a share so the downside is really about $1 and the upside is $3-4 over current prices the next couple of years. So the risk/reward is very good. Plus if you reinvest the dividends they pay you, (Assuming they will continue to pay dividends) your return would even be greater.
I think it is a very good low risk/high reward stock for an IRA.
(NOT A RECOMMENDATION JUST MY THOUGHTS.)
Have a great trading day.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
DFNS released their 10k after the bell yesterday. I read thru it last night and things look pretty good.
They have just less than 29 million shares outstanding which was a concern of mine. (Especially after the ATSX ordeal) It doesn't look they are issuing a bunch either. It looks like they have a decent amount of cash as well.
With all the new orders assuming they are making a profit on the orders they should have some nice cash flow coming.
Their backlog was $3.5 million which is up.
They have $6.9 million in orders from the Israel Defense department.
Another $780,000 from U.S and Latin america (Jan 17th news release)
Another $280,000 for a bus contract and maybe $1 million from that.
And that doesn't include the smaller orders or if the civilians are buying. (They did $4 million in civilian orders or $1 million per quarter for 2006.)
All totaled that should mean $8-$10+ million for the first 2 quarters for DFNS. They only did about $3.6 million for the first 2 quarters of 2006.
So we could have revenue growth of over 100% for the first 2 quarters Year over Year.
Someone with a lot of volume is taking the stock down a bit today now as of this writing is back to .50
I think as long as they continue to grow revenue and if they could earn .02 each of the first 2 quarters this stock will really move. Next important date is May 15th which is when the Q1 will be need to be released by.
The owner of the company and another big investor own roughly 80% of the stock. Which means their is roughly only about 6 million shares in the float. So a quarter with huge growth especially if it comes with earnings will really move this stock.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Monday, April 9, 2007
I purchased DFNS last Thursday April 5th in my IRA (1500 shares at .52) It was in the running for my top pick so I wanted to get in the stock. I do own other stocks as well for my IRA.
Anyway last Thursday the stock did over 300,000 in volume traded which is about 5x its normal trading volume for a day. What the reason was I don't know.
When I tried to buy my 8,000 shares this morning for the StockDoubling project I got a message from scottrade.....
"Buys are not allowed for this security. Please call your local branch to place the order."
So I had to call Scottrade in order to place my 8,000 share buy order. (Same commission rate) I just spoke with him again and he didn't show a reason on his screen why I had to call the local branch. I have heard from others though that their scottrade broker has said stuff like pump and dump promotion.
So whether that went happened on Thursday April 5th and that is the reason for the 300,000+ shares traded I am not sure.
Even for my order I had to call it in and that was BEFORE I even posted I owned the stock anywhere online.
However last Thursday for my IRA order I could do it online!
I don't know if other brokers did that or not I just use Scottrade. 300,000+ shares isn't a lot though overall. (They have roughly 29 million outstanding.) And it isn't like 300,000 hasn't been traded before they have actually traded over 280,000 shares 4 times this year. (Those other times did have news releases with them, this one did not)
I wanted to keep you abreast of what was going on and if you saw that message I wanted to let you know what it was about.
Currently the stock is up a bit from this morning so its off to a good start.
I purchased 8000 shares at .50 of DFNS (DEFENSE INDUSTRIES)
DFNS Is an company based in Israel that deals with defense.
This company has announced some big orders for their products in the last couple of months. They should grow revenue dramatically especially for the first 2 quarters. The stock has moved up some already though due to that news. Last year they did roughly $10 million in revenue I would think they could do $15-$20 million this year. The Ceo owns 2/3rds of the stock but they are filing their 10k in a few days/week which I would rather have that information in front of me before buying. How much in earnings could they really do? I don't know could be .03-.10 if it is on the lower end the RISK of this stock could be a good deal. With roughly 30 million shares and if it does $15 million in revenue that is a 2 to 1 price to sales ratio. The real question is will the orders they have announced turn into additional orders for now and the future. In the past the company has been stagnate as far as growth so is this year a fluke or can they really continue to grow?
Their seems to be decent support at .45 and .40 if it breaks that then .30. I would probably exit the trade below .30 if it got that low. On the upside they have hit their 52 week high in the low .60's a few weeks ago. If that breaks it could head toward $1.
They should have a couple of monster Q1 (will be out by May 15th) and Q2 (Will be out by August 15th) year over year which could really move the stock. Especially if the company can produce a couple cents per share in each quarter.
It does have some risks if they can't produce additional orders or if they can't turn a profit this could go down to .30.
Here are the other 4 stocks that were in contention for my Stock Pick. They are inNo particular order. (I look through 100's and 100's of stocks. I narrow it downlittle by little usually to a group of 20-30 after a while than really go in-depth.I than narrow it to 5 and out of the 5 I pick the best.) I have always included theother 4 stocks in the original email. The other stocks have usually done pretty well also.
In random order! (I do not own any of these following stocks or plan to unlessotherwise noted. Stock symbols are given with April 4th closing price.)
GLDS .275 This company is buying a couple of other companies and combined revenues should reach $55 million for 2007. Insiders have been buying the stock in recent months. They have about 70 million shares outstanding but with all the additional buying of companies it will probably approach 100+ million. They may lose some money but if they can keep shares outstanding to a minimum they could be ok. A double in price would mean roughly 1 to 1 price to sales. Which wouldn't be bad. It is well off its highs it may take a while though to right the ship. (Has the biggest upside for a multiple gainer but biggest downside if they don't stop issuing shares and can't become profitable.)
AYSI .67 This stock has taken off in the last couple of months it is up from the .10-.15 range just a couple of months ago. They earned .03 EPS for the first quarter 07. They seem to have turned the corner on revenue and growth. This is a very small company they only did $3-4 million all year last year. However what matters is EPS. And its possible they could earn .08-.10 for the year. They said 2nd quarter results would be down from 1st quarter what that means I don't know. But if the stock price slips to the .50 range I think it would be a good buying opportunity. Insiders own most of the shares. (basically 2 guys) Investor relations aren't pleased with them though for various reasons. A decent amount of risk at these levels due to the quick move up. If it can come back down a little and after the 2nd quarter earnings. (which will be out by mid May) if the stock comes back to the .40-.50 range and it still looks like .08-.10EPS for the year could be a good buy there.
TSSW .76 This stock has also moved up a bit in the last month or two. They are also a very small company having revenue of just over $3 million for 2006. But they made .06 EPS and grew about 100% last year. They seem to have things together and their websites (which is how they sell) are ever increasing in hits each month. They also have plans for other products that could increase revenues. Insiders own a good deal of this stock (35%) Issue is I am looking for a double in price or $1.50 can this stock get there. A $1.50 stock price would mean a $20 million marketcap for a company that may do $5 million this year in revenue. EPS does matter but where will they be even with .10 EPS for the year I would need a 15 x EPS. Which for the industry they are in is very low but it is also a small stock. I think it has potential to go higher I would like to see a bit lower price though first.
CAGC $2.90 This stock deals with fertilizer in China they have opened a couple of factories the last few months and have a couple more coming on within the next 60 days. They are profitable company earning .29 EPS for 2006. So they are trading at roughly a 10x PE. With the additional factories coming online they should increase revenue and EPS a good deal. Their is good support at $2.40-.50 in this stock so the downside isn't too bad. Other factors that could cause this stock problems is CHINA. If China revalues their currencies the sales for CAGC will go down comparative. Also China has announced new tax laws going into effect Jan 1 2008 which when announced the rates could send ALL china stocks lower.(Assuming they are high) Both the currency aspect and tax aspect have me a little worried about the hits China stocks could take. I think the stock is very good though and will continue to grow and its hard to invest in WHAT IF'S. As if the tax rate is good then it would be a non event or if the currency doesn't revalue this year its a non event.
I would also need a $6 stock price in order to get my double. With 19 million shares out that roughly a $115 million dollar market cap for a company that will do $40 million in revenue or so. I would need a roughly 15x PE. As far as safety and longer term play I think this will probably be the one.
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Saturday, April 7, 2007
The update won't come until after the market opens as I have to get on a 9am call and still talk to a few people before narrowing my 5 stocks down to the ONE! No I haven't picked the ONE stock yet but should hopefully with some more research today and Monday.
If I find the one stock and get a good value for it in the markets I will buy and then let everyone know what it is.
So keep your eyes on the blog Monday for the possible pick.
I have put a lot of hours into 10k's this time around on a LOT of different stocks so hopefully it will really pay off. We will have to wait and see.
Have a Happy Easter! He is risen
Thursday, April 5, 2007
The stock recovered very quickly and I couldn't get the price I wanted. It has since moved up a bit and I don't know if that will end up being the stock or not anymore.
Yes that stock may move higher but will move enough for the double?
I am feeling a bit better today and will hopefully do some research Friday and Saturday and if all goes well maybe have the pick on Monday. ASSUMING I CAN GET THE PRICE I WANT.
If not I will wait it out for one of the stocks to fall a bit before picking it up.
Have a great day and a very HAPPY EASTER. (He is Risen!)
Monday, April 2, 2007
I did do some research on Saturday but nothing has really jumped at me yet. Shoot if you got something for me to look at that IS NOT A STORY STOCK. Send it to me I will take and look and maybe it will become the next pick. (firstname.lastname@example.org ) Must be GROWING and close to earning money if not already doing so. NO PINKS!
I am NOT going to rush things at all. I am still WAY ahead of schedule on the project so I have all kinds of time as far as that goes.
If I can kick the allergies I may get a stock in this week. But at this point I would probably say no. I still would like to get all my taxes done YIKES THIS YEAR with all the paperwork I got to do. Anyway I would like that done prior to picking a stock as usually I am pretty focused on the stock for the first few days after I pick it.
It is also a short week due to GOOD FRIDAY this week the markets are closed that day.
Anyway if I had to predict it would probably be next week but will see over the next couple of days.
Have a good day.