Friday, October 26, 2007

StockDoubling Pick Update

Sorry its been a while since last update.

I have been busy with Mike Huckabee campaign stuff, LazyTrading stuff, and the monthly project. Nothing really has changed from my recent comments on DFNS which you need to review.

I wanted to review this last StockDoubling pick of DFNS and the "other stocks" which were picked on April 9th. Which was just over 6 months ago.

You can review that days blog by clicking the link below to read my thoughts on each stock at that time etc..

The prices next to the stock are the April 9th prices. Only DFNS did I enter at that time so that is actual entry. The rest are based on the previous days close

DFNS .50 Since then the High has been .70 (Up as much as 40%) and the low has been .46 (Down as much as 8%). Currently the stock is the mid to upper .50's. You can read more about DFNS in recent posts.

GLDS .275 The symbol on this stock changed to AIRI. Since that time the stock has hit a high of .42 (Up as much as 52%) and a low of .22 (Down as much as 20%). Currently the stock is in the upper .20's.

AYSI .67 Since then the High has been .78 (up as much as 16%) and the low has been .30 (Down as much as 55%) Currently the stock is in the mid .60's. As we stated back on April 9th. It had run up quick so their was some risk for a correction. And it did correct but WAY too much. I bought in the upper .30's on the correction and sold a few weeks later in the mid .40's.

TSSW .76 Since then the high has been $2.09 (up as much as 175%) and the low has been .72 (Down as much as 5%). By far this has been the winner of the group. Being up the most and down the least. It took off only a few weeks after our post. Consolidated a bit a month or so ago and has taken off again. Currently the stock is around $2. This was a more than DOUBLE!!

CAGC $2.90 Since then the High has been $6.25 (up as much as 115%) and the low has been $2.05 (Down as much as 29%) Currently the stock is around $5.50. I bought when it came back down to the $2.40 level and road it up for a few weeks exiting in the $5's!! As I said back on April 9th. "As far as safety and longer term play I think this will probably be the one." And it has produced very well.

So out of the 5 stocks 2 of them have doubled within 6 months.
DFNS has been firmly up basically the whole time (though only around 10-20% for the most part.)
GLDS (AIRI) is also up but had to deal with some down times.
AYSI was a double from where I actually bought it in the mid .30's but not from the .67 levels.

Each of the stocks if you would have bought them back then you would currently be up nicely on all of them but AYSI (which is roughly break-even)

Again the project is to find 1 stock a year that doubles. Not in 3 months or 6 months but 1 year! We got spoiled on our early successes of GNBT, PSIT, AND HIHO. DFNS has taken longer then expect that is for sure. I still think we will do well with the stock though even if we have to endure a down faze to the .40's. I think if it did sell off it would have the same kind of reaction of a CAGC or AYSI has had where it gets in some bottom buyers and DFNS will again move up.

Unless the company really has a HORRIBLE Q3 DFNS should do at least $17.5 million for the year. With 29 million shares outstanding a 1 to 1 Price/sales ratio is .60 stock. It should also do at least .06 EPS for the year I would think closer to .07-.08. And it is growing so unless growth just dries up I think we have a winner. Say they do $17.5 million this year and grow 30% next year. (They grew 60-70% this year) That is roughly a $23 million in revenue and a .80 share price for 1 to 1 price to sales assuming the same 29 million shares. And if they earn .07 EPS this year and grow 30% next year that is .09 EPS for the year. At 12x PE that is $1.08 stock.
That of course is a long way away so a lot can still happen. But unless the wheels fall off sales or they can't handle expenses I still think DFNS will do well going forward.

Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven

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