Friday, March 7, 2008
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
DFNS UP TODAY
DFNS came out with news that the SEC inquiry is over and no need to make further changes.
The market likes it as it is UP a bit today on nice volume.
March 31st is the big day where they will have to release their 10k report. If DFNS broke even or MADE money for the quarter this stock will be in the .40's again. If they lost money we may be in the .30's for a while.
The risk/reward in the low .30's is still pretty good though I think.
At .33 and 29 million shares outstanding you have a company worth $9.6 million. The company should do close to $17+ million for 2007. So is trading at a discount to sales. The book value of the company is .24 and growing. They aren't issuing a lot of stock so that is a plus.
They have some smaller orders that they announced but nothing big.
I would think the revenues for Q4 would be in the $2.5-$3 million range.
Earnings is going to be tough. Heart wants it to be up but I think they may lose money based on what I see.
I hope to see some projections from the company on 2008 though that would be nice.
Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
The market likes it as it is UP a bit today on nice volume.
March 31st is the big day where they will have to release their 10k report. If DFNS broke even or MADE money for the quarter this stock will be in the .40's again. If they lost money we may be in the .30's for a while.
The risk/reward in the low .30's is still pretty good though I think.
At .33 and 29 million shares outstanding you have a company worth $9.6 million. The company should do close to $17+ million for 2007. So is trading at a discount to sales. The book value of the company is .24 and growing. They aren't issuing a lot of stock so that is a plus.
They have some smaller orders that they announced but nothing big.
I would think the revenues for Q4 would be in the $2.5-$3 million range.
Earnings is going to be tough. Heart wants it to be up but I think they may lose money based on what I see.
I hope to see some projections from the company on 2008 though that would be nice.
Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
DFNS NICE DAY ON TUESDAY
( I wrote this up yesterday but forgot to post it until this morning... )
Nice day in DFNS today.
Good Volume, UP 20%+. Congrats to those that got in when it was in the mid .20's.
DFNS got the SEC issues out of the way with there NEW 10Q's for Q1 and Q2. Not much of a change as far as profits etc...
With that behind them they were able to issue a press release yesterday morning. (It was a holiday so no trading happened.)
This is part of what the news release had to say.....
"We had a net profit of $1.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2007, compared to a net loss of $400,000 in the same period last year.”
“In 2007, the Israeli's Defense Ministry's was our major customer and we expect it to continue to be our largest customer in 2008. At the same time, we continue to diligently seek new sales and marketing channels worldwide, while constantly broadening our offerings. Our U.S.-based subsidiary, Own Mills, recently launched a new production line of protective ceramic plates using new technology and machinery. We are witnessing substantial demand for this new product both in the U.S. and worldwide.”
Mr. Postbinder concluded, “I believe that we are well positioned for growth and expansion in our markets and we look ahead optimistically that our share price will in time reflect our company's true value.”
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The company has high hopes for the future which is good.
Again if we step back this is a company that will grow their revenues by 60%+ for 2007 over 2006. Will have a good amount of profit (even if Q4 comes in at a loss which I don't know if it will or not) They increased book value etc..
If today was the first time I heard about DFNS it would be on my radar and be interested in buying it of course. But it has been 9 months since the orginal StockDoubling pick of DFNS so we have seen the ups and downs.
Yes I still think it is undervalued, but without some major news new orders or the 10K report (by March 30th) I don't foresee an increase above .50. But I do think its lows are in and we could bounce around the high .20's to low .40's.
This is a stock where the CEO owns the majority of the stock so the pace of news releases isn't as much as a HYPED stock. So it will take some patience. Those that got in DFNS in the .20's will be rewarded nicely I think. Those that were in like me at .50's will have to have some patience.
Nice day in DFNS today.
Good Volume, UP 20%+. Congrats to those that got in when it was in the mid .20's.
DFNS got the SEC issues out of the way with there NEW 10Q's for Q1 and Q2. Not much of a change as far as profits etc...
With that behind them they were able to issue a press release yesterday morning. (It was a holiday so no trading happened.)
This is part of what the news release had to say.....
"We had a net profit of $1.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2007, compared to a net loss of $400,000 in the same period last year.”
“In 2007, the Israeli's Defense Ministry's was our major customer and we expect it to continue to be our largest customer in 2008. At the same time, we continue to diligently seek new sales and marketing channels worldwide, while constantly broadening our offerings. Our U.S.-based subsidiary, Own Mills, recently launched a new production line of protective ceramic plates using new technology and machinery. We are witnessing substantial demand for this new product both in the U.S. and worldwide.”
Mr. Postbinder concluded, “I believe that we are well positioned for growth and expansion in our markets and we look ahead optimistically that our share price will in time reflect our company's true value.”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The company has high hopes for the future which is good.
Again if we step back this is a company that will grow their revenues by 60%+ for 2007 over 2006. Will have a good amount of profit (even if Q4 comes in at a loss which I don't know if it will or not) They increased book value etc..
If today was the first time I heard about DFNS it would be on my radar and be interested in buying it of course. But it has been 9 months since the orginal StockDoubling pick of DFNS so we have seen the ups and downs.
Yes I still think it is undervalued, but without some major news new orders or the 10K report (by March 30th) I don't foresee an increase above .50. But I do think its lows are in and we could bounce around the high .20's to low .40's.
This is a stock where the CEO owns the majority of the stock so the pace of news releases isn't as much as a HYPED stock. So it will take some patience. Those that got in DFNS in the .20's will be rewarded nicely I think. Those that were in like me at .50's will have to have some patience.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
2nd Project? and DFNS NEW YEAR!
Hello StockDoublers,
I hope you had a good Christmas and New Year.
I wanted to update on a few things...
1. Thank you for taking part in the poll I will PROBABLY come out with a 2nd StockDoubling project at some point but it won't happen until at LEAST the end of January or the beginning of Feb. So don't look for another pick until than. I, will of course update you when things are closer and I have more information on it all etc...
2. DFNS is trading at .27 right now not many shares trading yet this morning. It is still odd to me why its down this low. Unless something underlying is going on as far as slow growth going forward etc.. It just seems way undervalued.
Book Value is .24
The 4th quarter just ended a few days ago we won't see any news on that until the end of March or early April.
With roughly 29,000,000 shares outstanding and a .27 share price it puts the market cap of the company under $8,000,000. The company should do at LEAST $16 million for the year just ended so we are trading at well less then 1x Price to sales. The company grew at a large rate this past year on earnings and sales yet is lower in share price then it was at this time last year very odd.
I know the SEC issue is there but from what it looks like is quite small and much to do about nothing. We will see if the sales are in the $3 million + range for Q4 and if they can make money I don't know if they will or not.
But aside from the company imploding it just doesn't look like a lot of downside at this point so I don't see a reason to sell. Even if the company could only do $10 million in revenue next year it is still trading at less then 1 to 1 Price to sales and just over 1 to 1 Price to Book. So I see no point of selling at these levels. If new information comes out etc... I may change my mind but at this point I think its bound to rebound some.
Last year in January the company came out with a news release that the Israel Defense Ministry just ordered $5 million worth of products which sent the stock soaring. I don't know how the budgets are in Israel if its based on the calendar year etc.. But if it is then this month maybe a good one as far as new releases of new orders. Assuming of course they actually get new orders. I wouldn't expect any BIG orders or orders at all from the Israel Defense Ministry as they still have a backlog that they have to run thru and how many vests etc. do you really need? I would love to see some bigger orders for the buses or wall covering etc.. I think that would be a positive sign especially if its from other countries.
A lot of times to start the year you see rallies in stocks that are considered "VALUE" plays. Companies that seem quite undervalued. DFNS actually has rallied nicely to start the year each of the last few years. We will see if that trend continues for it this year or not. Hopefully it will.
I would hope to see some news from the company either on the SEC and/or New orders over the next 60 days. Failure to see ANY news from those two fronts wouldn't be good news going forward in my opinion.
Right now we are in wait and see mode. I have confidence that the stock will rebound to prices that reflect the business facts.
Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I hope you had a good Christmas and New Year.
I wanted to update on a few things...
1. Thank you for taking part in the poll I will PROBABLY come out with a 2nd StockDoubling project at some point but it won't happen until at LEAST the end of January or the beginning of Feb. So don't look for another pick until than. I, will of course update you when things are closer and I have more information on it all etc...
2. DFNS is trading at .27 right now not many shares trading yet this morning. It is still odd to me why its down this low. Unless something underlying is going on as far as slow growth going forward etc.. It just seems way undervalued.
Book Value is .24
The 4th quarter just ended a few days ago we won't see any news on that until the end of March or early April.
With roughly 29,000,000 shares outstanding and a .27 share price it puts the market cap of the company under $8,000,000. The company should do at LEAST $16 million for the year just ended so we are trading at well less then 1x Price to sales. The company grew at a large rate this past year on earnings and sales yet is lower in share price then it was at this time last year very odd.
I know the SEC issue is there but from what it looks like is quite small and much to do about nothing. We will see if the sales are in the $3 million + range for Q4 and if they can make money I don't know if they will or not.
But aside from the company imploding it just doesn't look like a lot of downside at this point so I don't see a reason to sell. Even if the company could only do $10 million in revenue next year it is still trading at less then 1 to 1 Price to sales and just over 1 to 1 Price to Book. So I see no point of selling at these levels. If new information comes out etc... I may change my mind but at this point I think its bound to rebound some.
Last year in January the company came out with a news release that the Israel Defense Ministry just ordered $5 million worth of products which sent the stock soaring. I don't know how the budgets are in Israel if its based on the calendar year etc.. But if it is then this month maybe a good one as far as new releases of new orders. Assuming of course they actually get new orders. I wouldn't expect any BIG orders or orders at all from the Israel Defense Ministry as they still have a backlog that they have to run thru and how many vests etc. do you really need? I would love to see some bigger orders for the buses or wall covering etc.. I think that would be a positive sign especially if its from other countries.
A lot of times to start the year you see rallies in stocks that are considered "VALUE" plays. Companies that seem quite undervalued. DFNS actually has rallied nicely to start the year each of the last few years. We will see if that trend continues for it this year or not. Hopefully it will.
I would hope to see some news from the company either on the SEC and/or New orders over the next 60 days. Failure to see ANY news from those two fronts wouldn't be good news going forward in my opinion.
Right now we are in wait and see mode. I have confidence that the stock will rebound to prices that reflect the business facts.
Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
I have a New Poll PLEASE VOTE
I have gotten emails from people asking my thoughts on DFNS etc.. Well my thoughts are posted on this blog and I also post them on Ragingbull.com on the DFNS board.
Some people have mentioned they just found out about Stockdoubling and would like to get involved with the next pick. Well the next pick could be a good long while from now.
And since I normally find 4 OTHER stocks that are in the running to maybe us those in a different project. (I will still have the monthly project down the road as well)
But this 2nd project would be just like StockDoubling.com Project take $500 and try and double it once a year etc.. I wouldn't suggest anyone selling out of DFNS to get into the new project it would be a totally seperate project with different funds etc.. At least that is what I would suggest.
You can see the poll to the left and make your decisions and I will determine whether its worth my time to go ahead and do another TWIN project to stockdoubling.com
Let me know by voting.
Merry Christmas
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Some people have mentioned they just found out about Stockdoubling and would like to get involved with the next pick. Well the next pick could be a good long while from now.
And since I normally find 4 OTHER stocks that are in the running to maybe us those in a different project. (I will still have the monthly project down the road as well)
But this 2nd project would be just like StockDoubling.com Project take $500 and try and double it once a year etc.. I wouldn't suggest anyone selling out of DFNS to get into the new project it would be a totally seperate project with different funds etc.. At least that is what I would suggest.
You can see the poll to the left and make your decisions and I will determine whether its worth my time to go ahead and do another TWIN project to stockdoubling.com
Let me know by voting.
Merry Christmas
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Thursday, December 13, 2007
DFNS WHAT NOW?
DFNS where do we go from here?
DFNS continues to be down in the upper.20's to low .30's. I have emailed the company NUMEROUS times since Nov. 26th and have yet to hear anything from them. I had some questions I wanted addressed by the company.
One of which was why they didn't put out a press release after the Q3 report. It wasn't as good of report as Q2 (and I didn't expect it to be) but it was their 2nd best quarter they had in YEARS! So why they didn't put out a statement saying they were happy with sales etc... Was puzzling to me. The only reason I could come up with is they didn't want to put it out because future sales don't look that promising. I don't know if that is the case or not but they have been a reason for the huge selloff.
I love to see a company that insiders own a good portion of the stock. In DFNS case though the CEO owns over 60% of the stock which means whatever he says goes anyway. Doesn't matter what the shareholders think as he controls it. Which is fine as he has a lot invested but what tends to happen is lack of effort on the company side to give QUALITY information to the general public.
I haven't sold a single share and WON'T until we hit the mid .40's again AT LEAST!! (Not sure if I would then but that would probably be the minimum I would sell some at.) I am 100% in on DFNS it is the only stock I own and don't have any $$$ in my brokerage account to buy anything else. So if I did sell any shares it would be my excess shares NOT my stockdoubling project shares. The only way I would sell some before the mid .40's would be if news came out that sales have dried up or something else major happened.
The bottom-line though is this stock can be bought many times during the week for as little as .30. It is still a company that has a BOOK VALUE (The breakup value of the company) of .24. Also market value of the company when trading at .30 is LESS then $9 million. (That is how much it would cost to buy ALL the shares at .30) Which for a company that should do $17 million in revenue for the year is A STEAL!!
So the #'s are there as far as undervalued I would say that. It just depends is the underlying business still viable going forward. Was it a 1 year fluke in business or is this something that the company can sustain and build on going forward? And that is a question I don't have an answer to and the company isn't giving out any hints either. As I said before I could wait until the end of October 2008 for the stock to hit .50 and still be on pace for the stockdoubling project. I would prefer not to wait that long of course but I do have time to wait. When things look this undervalued I just am not going to sell any shares.
An interesting bit of information though which you can study yourself if you so desire.... Looking at a 5 year chart of DFNS. (go to www.bigcharts.com and use the weekly charts) Around this time of the year should you have purchased DFNS around the mid/late December each year and held it for a couple weeks in the new year you would have made quite a nice return each time. What tends to happen especially with a lot of small cap stocks is people sell their losing stocks before the end of the year to get the tax write off. Then a flood of people come into to "cheap" or "value" stocks to start the year. And DFNS has value I think (assuming the business remains strong.) So we could see a bounce in it if history repeats itself on that. Time will tell on what happens.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS continues to be down in the upper.20's to low .30's. I have emailed the company NUMEROUS times since Nov. 26th and have yet to hear anything from them. I had some questions I wanted addressed by the company.
One of which was why they didn't put out a press release after the Q3 report. It wasn't as good of report as Q2 (and I didn't expect it to be) but it was their 2nd best quarter they had in YEARS! So why they didn't put out a statement saying they were happy with sales etc... Was puzzling to me. The only reason I could come up with is they didn't want to put it out because future sales don't look that promising. I don't know if that is the case or not but they have been a reason for the huge selloff.
I love to see a company that insiders own a good portion of the stock. In DFNS case though the CEO owns over 60% of the stock which means whatever he says goes anyway. Doesn't matter what the shareholders think as he controls it. Which is fine as he has a lot invested but what tends to happen is lack of effort on the company side to give QUALITY information to the general public.
I haven't sold a single share and WON'T until we hit the mid .40's again AT LEAST!! (Not sure if I would then but that would probably be the minimum I would sell some at.) I am 100% in on DFNS it is the only stock I own and don't have any $$$ in my brokerage account to buy anything else. So if I did sell any shares it would be my excess shares NOT my stockdoubling project shares. The only way I would sell some before the mid .40's would be if news came out that sales have dried up or something else major happened.
The bottom-line though is this stock can be bought many times during the week for as little as .30. It is still a company that has a BOOK VALUE (The breakup value of the company) of .24. Also market value of the company when trading at .30 is LESS then $9 million. (That is how much it would cost to buy ALL the shares at .30) Which for a company that should do $17 million in revenue for the year is A STEAL!!
So the #'s are there as far as undervalued I would say that. It just depends is the underlying business still viable going forward. Was it a 1 year fluke in business or is this something that the company can sustain and build on going forward? And that is a question I don't have an answer to and the company isn't giving out any hints either. As I said before I could wait until the end of October 2008 for the stock to hit .50 and still be on pace for the stockdoubling project. I would prefer not to wait that long of course but I do have time to wait. When things look this undervalued I just am not going to sell any shares.
An interesting bit of information though which you can study yourself if you so desire.... Looking at a 5 year chart of DFNS. (go to www.bigcharts.com and use the weekly charts) Around this time of the year should you have purchased DFNS around the mid/late December each year and held it for a couple weeks in the new year you would have made quite a nice return each time. What tends to happen especially with a lot of small cap stocks is people sell their losing stocks before the end of the year to get the tax write off. Then a flood of people come into to "cheap" or "value" stocks to start the year. And DFNS has value I think (assuming the business remains strong.) So we could see a bounce in it if history repeats itself on that. Time will tell on what happens.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
DFNS and the StockDoubling Project
Hello StockDoubling members,
I haven't had an update in a while. Not much is new with DFNS it is WAY undervalued I believe at these prices the bid is .30 (what you can sell it for) ask is .36 (what you buy it for)
Based on .31 which was its last traded price and 29 million shares outstanding it has a market cap of $9 million. (That is the worth supposedly of the company.)
The company will do $17-18 million for the year in revenue more than likely so its value is 1/2 its sales. It also already has .042 in EPS for the year and may or may not earn more in Q4.
We could have some tax selloff before the end of the year yet on DFNS. But I think after the New year if not before we will see a move higher and people look for value and this has a ton of value.
It had a big 300k+ volume day last week but nothing really happened with it. Not sure what to think. They did also make an announcement about a new order for a product but the order was only for 250k so it isn't that big of deal. The only issue that I can foresee is that sales have just dried up. During their slow times though over the last few years they were still able to do $10 million or so a year in revenue which would still put our Price to Sales ratio at less then 1. So unless this stock simply implodes I just don't see it being down at these levels for too long.
Now on to the StockDoubling project itself......
I started the project back on October 31st 2005. The goal is to get 1 stock to double each year and after 11 years I would have $1 million after starting with just $500. Well we started off with a bang and were doubling stocks in 4 months time. Well obviously this year hasn't been good to us but we are still on track.
Starting with $500 on October 31st 2005
$1000 would be needed by October 31st 2006 (Which we had)
$2000 would be needed by October 31st 2007 (Which we had)
$4000 would be needed by October 31st 2008 (We actually put $4k into DFNS)
Anyway my point is we are still 10-11 months from the October 31st 2008 time frame when we should have $4,000. Currently I have 8000 DFNS shares at .30 so that is $2400. If DFNS came back up to .50 the $4,000 would be there.
So we just have to take a step back and look at the goals for the long term. Again this project is to see if it can get done, and hopefully it can but it wasn't a project to double stocks every 4 months it was to find 1 stock a YEAR.
With the wildness of the markets lately their are always good opportunities to look at. Right now for me I still feel DFNS is very undervalued. And unless something big happens one way or another I will be staying in it. Whether I try and ride it to $1 is another story but I don't foresee me selling it at these prices. If something changes with the company I will have to reevaluate but at this time I see a LOT more upside then downside.
Have a Great Trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I haven't had an update in a while. Not much is new with DFNS it is WAY undervalued I believe at these prices the bid is .30 (what you can sell it for) ask is .36 (what you buy it for)
Based on .31 which was its last traded price and 29 million shares outstanding it has a market cap of $9 million. (That is the worth supposedly of the company.)
The company will do $17-18 million for the year in revenue more than likely so its value is 1/2 its sales. It also already has .042 in EPS for the year and may or may not earn more in Q4.
We could have some tax selloff before the end of the year yet on DFNS. But I think after the New year if not before we will see a move higher and people look for value and this has a ton of value.
It had a big 300k+ volume day last week but nothing really happened with it. Not sure what to think. They did also make an announcement about a new order for a product but the order was only for 250k so it isn't that big of deal. The only issue that I can foresee is that sales have just dried up. During their slow times though over the last few years they were still able to do $10 million or so a year in revenue which would still put our Price to Sales ratio at less then 1. So unless this stock simply implodes I just don't see it being down at these levels for too long.
Now on to the StockDoubling project itself......
I started the project back on October 31st 2005. The goal is to get 1 stock to double each year and after 11 years I would have $1 million after starting with just $500. Well we started off with a bang and were doubling stocks in 4 months time. Well obviously this year hasn't been good to us but we are still on track.
Starting with $500 on October 31st 2005
$1000 would be needed by October 31st 2006 (Which we had)
$2000 would be needed by October 31st 2007 (Which we had)
$4000 would be needed by October 31st 2008 (We actually put $4k into DFNS)
Anyway my point is we are still 10-11 months from the October 31st 2008 time frame when we should have $4,000. Currently I have 8000 DFNS shares at .30 so that is $2400. If DFNS came back up to .50 the $4,000 would be there.
So we just have to take a step back and look at the goals for the long term. Again this project is to see if it can get done, and hopefully it can but it wasn't a project to double stocks every 4 months it was to find 1 stock a YEAR.
With the wildness of the markets lately their are always good opportunities to look at. Right now for me I still feel DFNS is very undervalued. And unless something big happens one way or another I will be staying in it. Whether I try and ride it to $1 is another story but I don't foresee me selling it at these prices. If something changes with the company I will have to reevaluate but at this time I see a LOT more upside then downside.
Have a Great Trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
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