I wanted to update you on DFNS.
1. DFNS came out with an amended 10Q yesterday to correct the EPS for Q1. As I talked to you in the last update I thought the EPS LOSS was less than .01 and in their orginal report they showed .02. I emailed the company and they responded that they noticed the mistake as well and would be correcting it. The loss is really like .008 but they round up to .01.
So I am glad that has been fixed.
2. All things considering the stock didn't fair too bad yesterday only going down .01 on the stock price. .35 by .36 is the bid/ask. The bad thing at this level it isn't a SCREAMING buy like it would be in the high .20's and .30. But it isn't overvalued either so you don't really get momentum going in any direction.
3. The company SHOULD come out with a press release on their Q1 report on Monday I would expect. Hopefully they will shed some light on things. They do have a good amount of cash now as well so hopefully in the next couple of months we will see some movement in buying companies or buying back shares or something.
4. We started this project on Oct 31st 2005 with $500 and a goal of hitting $1 million within 11 years. Double our money once a year was the goal. It went fast the first year or so and has slowed down a LOT since than.
This is how the goal looks.
$500 Oct 31st 2005 Start
$1000 Oct 31st 2006 DONE
$2000 Oct 31st 2007 DONE
$4000 Oct 31st 2008 Well we started our DFNS with $4000 so that was completed. However since we are underwater with DFNS (8000 shares x .50) we are under that goal. So to stay on track, we either have to have $4000 back by Oct 31st 2008 or $8000 by Oct 31st 2009. My point being we still have some time yet in DFNS even though its been over a year we have been in this stock. If I don't see a potential for the stock to move to $1 over the next year + and it hits .50 again I may bail. It would give us plenty of time to still reach our goal etc..
5. I don't know when I will start the 2nd StockDoubling project again. I continue to evalute DFNS I don't want to be choosing both a StockDoubling project stock and a stockdoubling project Stock #2 at the same time. I will probably also have monthly picks like I did before stocks I feel that can move 15-35% within 4-6 weeks. I will keep you posted on that. In the meantime......
6. Next week you will want to check this blog EVERYDAY. As I will be making videos of some stocks from the stockdoubling projects and how you could have profited from them and can in the future. I will have a new video each day Lord willing to help you in your trading.
I will give you reminders each day as well. It should be fun.
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Thursday, May 15, 2008
DFNS EARNINGS ARE OUT
Hi StockDoublers,
DFNS released their 10Q today after the bell. Actually WELL after the bell.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069563/000117891308001245/zk85220.htm
Anyway they dumped it on a friday for good reason it STINKS!!!
$3.1 million in revenue for Q1 and their margins are way DOWN.
They lost money for the Quarter. Its says .02 in the report but I don't know its right due to the figures I come up with.
Civilian Local was WAY up like 300k more than what they did any quarter last year but with all the revenue they LOST money on that sector.
Export Civilian was basically one customer last year for almost $600k. And in their report they said that person is doing their own product so they don't foresee much of any orders from them. SO $600K is gone for 2008.
Local Military was $1.3 million but that was roughly in line with what they said in their 10k report. Still way down from last years Q1.
Export Military was the most disappointing only $600k vs over $1 million last year and that should have been their STRONGEST growth sector.
But now they say for that sector that their growth will be based on pricing. In other words they have to sell their product for cheaper to get more business which means MARGINS will go down even more.
I think they need to spend some money on a calculator though cause their NT 10k was off on EPS they said .07 it ended up being less then .05. And now their first Q1 is weird #'s. I show them losing less than .01 but they have .02 loss.
On a positive side their backlog got larger from Dec 31st to March 31st. Mostly in export military to Africa/Asia so that is good.
As far as the stock price I wouldn't think this would be a good report by any means. But the loss isn't that much to recover from if its less than .01 which is what my figures show.
The book value is around .43 per share and they have a lot of cash. If they use it wisely it should be a good investment still. I think its still has limited LONG TERM downside. And I would pick it up again in the upper .20's if it got there and probably even at .30. Upside though I think is pretty limited as well unless some major orders come in or they buy back some stock or something. Personally I would probably sell all my shares for .60 even though that isn't close to a double. And I would be fine with it.
Crunching some of the #'s this is what I come up with for the year.
Their is NO WAY too tell if they will be profitable or not but I just based my figures on revenue.
They have $2.6 million IDM backlog and $2.2 million in recently announced orders due for 2008. If they get thru the backlog and $2.2 million that would be an additional $4.8 million for the year. I think their will probably be more orders (maybe announced or unannounced on IDM for an additional $900k)
So $2.6 +$2.2 + .9 = $5.7 million for the rest of the year from IDM. Plus the $1.3 for Q1 is $7 million for IDM for 2008.
Local Civilian was a huge $1.1 million I don't see it being that good going forward but doing $2.9 million the rest of the year for a total of $4 million Local Civilian.
Export Civilian I will say ZERO for the year. Anything here is a bonus as they lost their main customer for this last year.
Export Military $600k Q1. $2.4 million backlog for africa/asia/europe if they go thru that its $3 million total. That means basically no more orders just go thru the backlog.
So all together that would $7 million IDM, $4 million Civilian and $3 million export Military or $14 million in revenue for 2008.
Which is down from 2007 but probably realistic. If that is the case they will save $100k+ in not paying the president a bonus this year.
I am holding currently but if it pops up a bit I may unload some of my non StockDoubling project shares.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS released their 10Q today after the bell. Actually WELL after the bell.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1069563/000117891308001245/zk85220.htm
Anyway they dumped it on a friday for good reason it STINKS!!!
$3.1 million in revenue for Q1 and their margins are way DOWN.
They lost money for the Quarter. Its says .02 in the report but I don't know its right due to the figures I come up with.
Civilian Local was WAY up like 300k more than what they did any quarter last year but with all the revenue they LOST money on that sector.
Export Civilian was basically one customer last year for almost $600k. And in their report they said that person is doing their own product so they don't foresee much of any orders from them. SO $600K is gone for 2008.
Local Military was $1.3 million but that was roughly in line with what they said in their 10k report. Still way down from last years Q1.
Export Military was the most disappointing only $600k vs over $1 million last year and that should have been their STRONGEST growth sector.
But now they say for that sector that their growth will be based on pricing. In other words they have to sell their product for cheaper to get more business which means MARGINS will go down even more.
I think they need to spend some money on a calculator though cause their NT 10k was off on EPS they said .07 it ended up being less then .05. And now their first Q1 is weird #'s. I show them losing less than .01 but they have .02 loss.
On a positive side their backlog got larger from Dec 31st to March 31st. Mostly in export military to Africa/Asia so that is good.
As far as the stock price I wouldn't think this would be a good report by any means. But the loss isn't that much to recover from if its less than .01 which is what my figures show.
The book value is around .43 per share and they have a lot of cash. If they use it wisely it should be a good investment still. I think its still has limited LONG TERM downside. And I would pick it up again in the upper .20's if it got there and probably even at .30. Upside though I think is pretty limited as well unless some major orders come in or they buy back some stock or something. Personally I would probably sell all my shares for .60 even though that isn't close to a double. And I would be fine with it.
Crunching some of the #'s this is what I come up with for the year.
Their is NO WAY too tell if they will be profitable or not but I just based my figures on revenue.
They have $2.6 million IDM backlog and $2.2 million in recently announced orders due for 2008. If they get thru the backlog and $2.2 million that would be an additional $4.8 million for the year. I think their will probably be more orders (maybe announced or unannounced on IDM for an additional $900k)
So $2.6 +$2.2 + .9 = $5.7 million for the rest of the year from IDM. Plus the $1.3 for Q1 is $7 million for IDM for 2008.
Local Civilian was a huge $1.1 million I don't see it being that good going forward but doing $2.9 million the rest of the year for a total of $4 million Local Civilian.
Export Civilian I will say ZERO for the year. Anything here is a bonus as they lost their main customer for this last year.
Export Military $600k Q1. $2.4 million backlog for africa/asia/europe if they go thru that its $3 million total. That means basically no more orders just go thru the backlog.
So all together that would $7 million IDM, $4 million Civilian and $3 million export Military or $14 million in revenue for 2008.
Which is down from 2007 but probably realistic. If that is the case they will save $100k+ in not paying the president a bonus this year.
I am holding currently but if it pops up a bit I may unload some of my non StockDoubling project shares.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
DFNS Q1 report due May 15th
Hello Stockdoublers,
DFNS is due to report their Q1 earnings on Thursday May 15th. Whether they report them then or not I don't know.
They ran WAY behind on the 10k report so whether they had enough time from that report release to this one I don't know. If they file for an extension they would have 5 additional days to report otherwise the E would go back on their symbol again. We will worry about that though IF that happens.
I personally don't think they will beat last years Q1 which was $3.9 million in revenue and .014 EPS. IF it does beat that we should move higher. If it doesn't beat it we will probably go down in stock price. I am quite disappointed that they didn't come out with a press release after the 10k report to tell people what is going on. Hopefully they will after the Q1 is released.
I will be back after the report is released with my take on things.
Have a profitable day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS is due to report their Q1 earnings on Thursday May 15th. Whether they report them then or not I don't know.
They ran WAY behind on the 10k report so whether they had enough time from that report release to this one I don't know. If they file for an extension they would have 5 additional days to report otherwise the E would go back on their symbol again. We will worry about that though IF that happens.
I personally don't think they will beat last years Q1 which was $3.9 million in revenue and .014 EPS. IF it does beat that we should move higher. If it doesn't beat it we will probably go down in stock price. I am quite disappointed that they didn't come out with a press release after the 10k report to tell people what is going on. Hopefully they will after the Q1 is released.
I will be back after the report is released with my take on things.
Have a profitable day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
DFNS on the move, and Free commission trades
Hello StockDoublers,
The symbol is now back to DFNS, the E is off since they reported their 10k. Which someone must like because the volume is over 115,000 today which is pretty good volume on a non news day. Someone bought at .45 just before the close 200 shares to make it look like a big day. However most of the day it traded at .40-.41. But it is in the right direction at least.
I was hoping they would come out with a press release about their year of 2007 but I guess they aren't going to. Maybe on Thursday we will see.....
Next important release is due next Thursday May 15th. Their Q1 is due to be reported then. Whether they will file on time for the Q1 I don't know. That will tell us how 2008 is shaping up and hopefully they will come out with a press release summarizing Q1 and the year 2007 after that report is out.
If you are new to this StockDoubling project and don't have a brokerage account open yet I wanted to take a minute to share a couple of possiblities.
1. Scottrade.com I personally use scottrade myself and have a roth IRA with them and a personal account with them. You can open an account for as little as $500 and you just pay $7 commissions per trade. When you sign up if you use referal code SVZP9077 you will get 3 FREE Trades ($21 value) I am pleased with Scottrade and it is a good way to go I feel.
2. Zecco I just signed up with them the other day though I have yet to deposit money with them. The nice thing about them is they have NO minimum deposit to start trading so you can start with $100 if you wanted. (Though I don't suggest that.) Commissions are just $4.50 per trade. If you open an account for $2,500 you get 10 FREE trades each month. So if you trade a little more often and can start with at least $2,500 that is a good way to go. If you use this link you can get all the above and another FREE gift when you join with them.
http://friends.zecco.com/r/3df1ea186dc1102b8555
It is a good idea I feel to have 2 brokerage accounts eventually. They don't have to have equal amounts in them but when/if one of your brokers are done for maintance etc.. And you see a trade you want to place you have a backup. I DON'T SUGGEST DOING THIS WHEN YOU ARE JUST STARTING OUT!
Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
The symbol is now back to DFNS, the E is off since they reported their 10k. Which someone must like because the volume is over 115,000 today which is pretty good volume on a non news day. Someone bought at .45 just before the close 200 shares to make it look like a big day. However most of the day it traded at .40-.41. But it is in the right direction at least.
I was hoping they would come out with a press release about their year of 2007 but I guess they aren't going to. Maybe on Thursday we will see.....
Next important release is due next Thursday May 15th. Their Q1 is due to be reported then. Whether they will file on time for the Q1 I don't know. That will tell us how 2008 is shaping up and hopefully they will come out with a press release summarizing Q1 and the year 2007 after that report is out.
If you are new to this StockDoubling project and don't have a brokerage account open yet I wanted to take a minute to share a couple of possiblities.
1. Scottrade.com I personally use scottrade myself and have a roth IRA with them and a personal account with them. You can open an account for as little as $500 and you just pay $7 commissions per trade. When you sign up if you use referal code SVZP9077 you will get 3 FREE Trades ($21 value) I am pleased with Scottrade and it is a good way to go I feel.
2. Zecco I just signed up with them the other day though I have yet to deposit money with them. The nice thing about them is they have NO minimum deposit to start trading so you can start with $100 if you wanted. (Though I don't suggest that.) Commissions are just $4.50 per trade. If you open an account for $2,500 you get 10 FREE trades each month. So if you trade a little more often and can start with at least $2,500 that is a good way to go. If you use this link you can get all the above and another FREE gift when you join with them.
http://friends.zecco.com/r/3df1ea186dc1102b8555
It is a good idea I feel to have 2 brokerage accounts eventually. They don't have to have equal amounts in them but when/if one of your brokers are done for maintance etc.. And you see a trade you want to place you have a backup. I DON'T SUGGEST DOING THIS WHEN YOU ARE JUST STARTING OUT!
Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Monday, May 5, 2008
My DFNS 10k Analysis
Hi StockDoublers,
DFNSE (OR DFNS) came out with their 10k today.
1. The E should come off the symbol sometime soon I believe. So give it a couple of days and the symbol should go back to DFNS.
2. Their 1st Quarter report is due by May 15th. Whether they will report in time I don't know since they were so late with this report. (In their 10k they did talk about lack of accounting people at their company and they would be hiring additional ones)
3. They had revenue of $19 million and net income of $1.4 million.
In their NT-10K back on March 31st (which is a report you have to file saying you are going to be late) they said that Net income was $1.6 million and EPS was .07. I talked about it then that $1.6 million into 29 million shares only equals .055 EPS so where they came up with .07 I had no idea.
Well based on the 10K that was released they only did $1.4 million in Net Income which is roughly .048 EPS or under .05. That is HUGE difference!
I wish I could get an answer why the #'s were so off but I can't ever get ahold of Investor relations and no one really answers questions their so I doubt I could ever find out.
4. They have just under 200 full time employees
5. They paid $129K in a bonus to the President of the company. I have NO problem with the bonus, the issue I have is he OWNS ZERO shares of the stock and could have taken the bonus in stock if he felt it was so undervalued.
6. They have book value of about .25 per share BEFORE the $5 million or so they are receiving in Q1 and Q2 settlement from the government that should add roughly .15-.17 after taxes to their book value. So book value will be around .40-.43 per share.
7. Based on a .38 share price the stock has a market cap of about $11 million which is about .58 Price to sales ratio. If it had a 1 price to sales ratio it would be trading at .65 per share.
8. It earned .048 EPS (they rounded up to .05) at 10x P/E its a .48 stock. At 15x P/E its a .72 stock.
9. The company grew revenues by 81% last year and had earnings of almost .05 vs a little more than a penny loss last year. So 2007 was a good year for sure.
10. Hopefully they will come out with a press release tomorrow talking about how 2007 was a great year and what they look for in 2008. That would help share prices.
11. What are my thoughts on the stock price?
If I didn't own any shares at this time I don't know if I would buy some or not.
The negatives are ......
a. I don't think they will be able to match last years revenue for IDM ($9 million+)
b. If a. is true then revenue would slip in 2007.
c. Investor relations is horrible will the stock have a run?
d. how much upside does it really have?
e. could the Q1 report be negative (breakeven) and send the stock lower?
The positives are...
a. Very limited downside. Book value of .40 per share soon.
b. earning money good P/E ratio?
Personally if the stock was at .60 today I would probably bail out of it completely. I just don't see a huge run in it coming unless they can build on this 19 million revenue and .05 EPS. If 2008 is better than 2007 by 15-20%+ I think this stock can run a little bit but based on the orders from IDM so far this year I find it hard pressed to beat revenue #'s of 2007.
But I don't also see much downside either. They are earning money and any move to .30 is way too low for this stock that has a book value of .40 and earned .048.
A couple of positives that are good for this coming year. They had a hit of tax penalty of $200k in 2007 which if that is taken care of is almost .01 added to EPS. Also the president only gets his bonus if revenue increases so if revenue is say $17 million for 2008 he wouldn't get the bonus and that is $100k saved from 2007.
12. They talk about possibly using the settlement money for buying other companies. That could be good or bad depending on the buyout. Personally I would like them to buy back $1 million worth of stock. That is roughly 2 million shares if they were bought at .50 each. It would help share prices and the bottomline with less shares outstanding.
I am in DFNS and will stay in for the time being. Long from .50 from a almost 13 months ago so I frustrated that they had such a good year and I didn't get to take part in it.
Have a profitable day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNSE (OR DFNS) came out with their 10k today.
1. The E should come off the symbol sometime soon I believe. So give it a couple of days and the symbol should go back to DFNS.
2. Their 1st Quarter report is due by May 15th. Whether they will report in time I don't know since they were so late with this report. (In their 10k they did talk about lack of accounting people at their company and they would be hiring additional ones)
3. They had revenue of $19 million and net income of $1.4 million.
In their NT-10K back on March 31st (which is a report you have to file saying you are going to be late) they said that Net income was $1.6 million and EPS was .07. I talked about it then that $1.6 million into 29 million shares only equals .055 EPS so where they came up with .07 I had no idea.
Well based on the 10K that was released they only did $1.4 million in Net Income which is roughly .048 EPS or under .05. That is HUGE difference!
I wish I could get an answer why the #'s were so off but I can't ever get ahold of Investor relations and no one really answers questions their so I doubt I could ever find out.
4. They have just under 200 full time employees
5. They paid $129K in a bonus to the President of the company. I have NO problem with the bonus, the issue I have is he OWNS ZERO shares of the stock and could have taken the bonus in stock if he felt it was so undervalued.
6. They have book value of about .25 per share BEFORE the $5 million or so they are receiving in Q1 and Q2 settlement from the government that should add roughly .15-.17 after taxes to their book value. So book value will be around .40-.43 per share.
7. Based on a .38 share price the stock has a market cap of about $11 million which is about .58 Price to sales ratio. If it had a 1 price to sales ratio it would be trading at .65 per share.
8. It earned .048 EPS (they rounded up to .05) at 10x P/E its a .48 stock. At 15x P/E its a .72 stock.
9. The company grew revenues by 81% last year and had earnings of almost .05 vs a little more than a penny loss last year. So 2007 was a good year for sure.
10. Hopefully they will come out with a press release tomorrow talking about how 2007 was a great year and what they look for in 2008. That would help share prices.
11. What are my thoughts on the stock price?
If I didn't own any shares at this time I don't know if I would buy some or not.
The negatives are ......
a. I don't think they will be able to match last years revenue for IDM ($9 million+)
b. If a. is true then revenue would slip in 2007.
c. Investor relations is horrible will the stock have a run?
d. how much upside does it really have?
e. could the Q1 report be negative (breakeven) and send the stock lower?
The positives are...
a. Very limited downside. Book value of .40 per share soon.
b. earning money good P/E ratio?
Personally if the stock was at .60 today I would probably bail out of it completely. I just don't see a huge run in it coming unless they can build on this 19 million revenue and .05 EPS. If 2008 is better than 2007 by 15-20%+ I think this stock can run a little bit but based on the orders from IDM so far this year I find it hard pressed to beat revenue #'s of 2007.
But I don't also see much downside either. They are earning money and any move to .30 is way too low for this stock that has a book value of .40 and earned .048.
A couple of positives that are good for this coming year. They had a hit of tax penalty of $200k in 2007 which if that is taken care of is almost .01 added to EPS. Also the president only gets his bonus if revenue increases so if revenue is say $17 million for 2008 he wouldn't get the bonus and that is $100k saved from 2007.
12. They talk about possibly using the settlement money for buying other companies. That could be good or bad depending on the buyout. Personally I would like them to buy back $1 million worth of stock. That is roughly 2 million shares if they were bought at .50 each. It would help share prices and the bottomline with less shares outstanding.
I am in DFNS and will stay in for the time being. Long from .50 from a almost 13 months ago so I frustrated that they had such a good year and I didn't get to take part in it.
Have a profitable day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS REPORT IS OUT
The 10k report on DFNSE is finally out
You can review it at
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080505/dfnse.ob10ksb.html
short answer I am a little disappointed.
I will write more on it later today.
Thanks
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
You can review it at
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080505/dfnse.ob10ksb.html
short answer I am a little disappointed.
I will write more on it later today.
Thanks
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Friday, May 2, 2008
DFNSE reports new order
Hello Stockdoublers,
DFNS (E) came out with news yesterday of a new order from the Israel Defense Ministry. (IDM)
You can review it here
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080501/20080501006104.html?.v=1
It is a $4.5 million order, 1/2 of which will be delivered in 2008. So basically $2.2 million order for this year.
Overall its good to report new orders etc.. However IDM orders were worth probably $8-10 million for 2007. (We won't know until their 10k comes out.) IDM was worth according to my figures $7.6 million thru the first 3 quarters. So being a $2.2 million order is a big drop from that.
Now it is only May so they could come in with more orders etc... And I do expect 2008 IDM to account for more than $2.2 million for the year. But I would be hard pressed to see how it does better than 2007.
But we will see.
They need to expand their other 3 catergories especially their export military which has grown some in 2007 and hopefully continues to grow by big #'s in 2008.
What they need to do NOW though is release their 10k!! It has been over a month since the 10K was DUE. And over 2 weeks since the extension has expired. (which is why their is an E behind their symbol.)
Still waiting for the 10k.
I will report when that comes out.
thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS (E) came out with news yesterday of a new order from the Israel Defense Ministry. (IDM)
You can review it here
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080501/20080501006104.html?.v=1
It is a $4.5 million order, 1/2 of which will be delivered in 2008. So basically $2.2 million order for this year.
Overall its good to report new orders etc.. However IDM orders were worth probably $8-10 million for 2007. (We won't know until their 10k comes out.) IDM was worth according to my figures $7.6 million thru the first 3 quarters. So being a $2.2 million order is a big drop from that.
Now it is only May so they could come in with more orders etc... And I do expect 2008 IDM to account for more than $2.2 million for the year. But I would be hard pressed to see how it does better than 2007.
But we will see.
They need to expand their other 3 catergories especially their export military which has grown some in 2007 and hopefully continues to grow by big #'s in 2008.
What they need to do NOW though is release their 10k!! It has been over a month since the 10K was DUE. And over 2 weeks since the extension has expired. (which is why their is an E behind their symbol.)
Still waiting for the 10k.
I will report when that comes out.
thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
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