The New stock project I will release after labor day in a nutshell is the following....
Find 1 maybe 2 stocks in a month that I think over the next 30-60 days can move up 10-30%. I will personally put in $400-$600 in each stock and sell them after it hits the target. (Which of course you will know about etc..)
The stock picks will be FREE no monthly charges at this time I just will have a donation page up if the picks are good you can donate etc.. We will see how it goes for the first couple of months that way and reevaluate it down the road.
I think the stock market is in for a wild ride (both up and down) over the next 2 months so it is an interesting time to start this project but I will give it a go.
If your funds are limited I would NOT take any money out of the stockdoubling project stock in order to do this. The StockDoubling project is for long term gains. And one of the reasons I started it is because I jumped in and out of stocks too much. And maybe its a mistake doing this new project only time will tell but I am not touching my stockdoubling project $$$ for this.
It is for fun and a way hopefully to make some money off the additional stocks that I like etc.. I will be doing the same process I use when finding StockDoubling picks so the #'s will be their it won't be based on HYPE etc..
Those of you whom have purchased the BeforeItMoves.com Stock Video/Ebook if you have suggestions on stocks to look at I would LOVE to hear them. I will take a look at them and maybe it will be the first pick for this new project.
I will have a new site and list and blog for this new project probably sometime next week. So that it isn't confusing those who just want to be on the StockDoubling project list.
So if (and ONLY IF) if you purchased the Beforeitmoves.com Stock Videos and if you have a stock please email me the stock and your thoughts on it.
Send to alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net with the topic "New Project Stock".
FYI I would also suggest not doing this project if you are going to be putting in less then $250 in a stock. Commissions will be roughly $14 by the time you buy and sell the stock. So if the gain is 10% or $25 on $250 its $11 profit. If you are doing less then $250 minimum I wouldn't suggest doing it, it may not be worth it after all the fees etc.. Each stock will be different some I will look for 10% some 30% etc..
Let me know your stocks and your thoughts on the new project.
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
This is what I just did
I wanted to let you know of what I just did.
I sold 2450 from my regular scottrade account. But bought 2000 shares in my IRA of DFNS.
So now I have 8000 shares (StockDoubling account) of DFNS
I have 2000 DFNS in my IRA (which is actually going to be used for a trip in early 2008 if DFNS produces well by then.)
I also have 500 shares of CAGC in my IRA as well. Which as of right now will be left in for a while 6-12 months looking for a good return on that.
Anyway I wanted to let you know about the changes.
AGAIN NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT AT ALL.
I had to move the shares around a little bit though due to the new stock project that I will start after Labor day. (Which was discussed on this blog a month + ago)
I have a bunch of free trades available in my regular account so I needed to free up some money in that account in order to purchase the NEW stocks for this new stock project that I will discuss after Labor day.
AGAIN I STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE IN DFNS AND DO NOT PLAN ON SELLING MY STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT SHARES OF DFNS ANYTIME SOON.
I wanted to let you know for full disclosure reasons.
If you are still looking for passive $$$ and the goal of the $1 million after 11 stocks etc.. I still think the StockDoubling project is the way to go. That will NOT change even with this new project.
The new project is strictly for those people who would like to see some more action rather than waiting on the stockdoubling project. (They should still have money in the stockdoubling project.)
Anyway I will let you know more information on that when its available.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I sold 2450 from my regular scottrade account. But bought 2000 shares in my IRA of DFNS.
So now I have 8000 shares (StockDoubling account) of DFNS
I have 2000 DFNS in my IRA (which is actually going to be used for a trip in early 2008 if DFNS produces well by then.)
I also have 500 shares of CAGC in my IRA as well. Which as of right now will be left in for a while 6-12 months looking for a good return on that.
Anyway I wanted to let you know about the changes.
AGAIN NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT AT ALL.
I had to move the shares around a little bit though due to the new stock project that I will start after Labor day. (Which was discussed on this blog a month + ago)
I have a bunch of free trades available in my regular account so I needed to free up some money in that account in order to purchase the NEW stocks for this new stock project that I will discuss after Labor day.
AGAIN I STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE IN DFNS AND DO NOT PLAN ON SELLING MY STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT SHARES OF DFNS ANYTIME SOON.
I wanted to let you know for full disclosure reasons.
If you are still looking for passive $$$ and the goal of the $1 million after 11 stocks etc.. I still think the StockDoubling project is the way to go. That will NOT change even with this new project.
The new project is strictly for those people who would like to see some more action rather than waiting on the stockdoubling project. (They should still have money in the stockdoubling project.)
Anyway I will let you know more information on that when its available.
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
DFNS Q3 ESTIMATES
Here are my estimates for Q3 for DFNS. (which ends September 30th but will be announced November 15th or so.)
Just rough #'s there is no way to know for sure. I think the revenue #'s could be close but its so hard to say with the earnings due to so many different expenses that vary each quarter but here are my guesses etc...
ALL INFORMATION IS STRICTLY BASED ON PRESS RELEASES FROM THE COMPANY OR PAST QUARTERLY REPORTS.
Revenues
-----------------
Local Civilian $800,000 (this tends to be about there average each quarter.)
Export Civilian $300,000 (If you look at backlog in the Q2 which is on page 13 they list $600k for US I took 1/2 of that # to be filled in Q3.)
Local Military $1,500,000 (Page 12 of Q2 report says they expect to do $3 million for the rest of the year. I took 1/2 that # to be filled in Q3)
Export Military $1,700,000 (Press release August 8th $1.2 million order due in Q3. Also backlog page 13 of Q2 report had $1.4 million I took $500k of that for Q3)
So that is a total of $4.3 million in revenue.
Is that down from Q2? YES As I said before I felt that Q2 would be the largest revenue quarter for DFNS for that year. That is why I was a little disappointed with the big tax issues DFNS faced in Q2. Otherwise we could have seen .03 for the quarter and this stock would be in the .80 range right now instead of .60.
As far as earnings this is where it gets tricky but I figured I would put the #'s out anyway.
$800,000 revenue. Local Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 13% profit margin. I put a 10% margin on it for Q3 so $80,000 profits
$300,000 revenue. Export Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $45,000 profits.
$1,500,000 revenue. Local Military so far for the 6 months has been a 24% profit margin. I put a 20% margin on it for Q3 so $300,000 profits.
$1,700,000 revenue. Export Military so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $255,000 profits.
So a total of $4.3 million in revenue and $680,000 in profits.
Take 25% out for taxes ($170,000)
Down to $510,000 in net profits. (OF COURSE THIS DOESN'T INCLUDE CURRENCY EXCHANGE ETC..)
Which is about .017 EPS for the quarter. (They did $3.9 million in Q1 revenue and $478,000 in net income)
Add that to the other profits and after Q3 stands at roughly .053 EPS for the year.
AGAIN JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE BUT UNLESS they keep a bunch back for Q4 I think the revenue #'s I presented here will be within 300-400k +/-.
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Just rough #'s there is no way to know for sure. I think the revenue #'s could be close but its so hard to say with the earnings due to so many different expenses that vary each quarter but here are my guesses etc...
ALL INFORMATION IS STRICTLY BASED ON PRESS RELEASES FROM THE COMPANY OR PAST QUARTERLY REPORTS.
Revenues
-----------------
Local Civilian $800,000 (this tends to be about there average each quarter.)
Export Civilian $300,000 (If you look at backlog in the Q2 which is on page 13 they list $600k for US I took 1/2 of that # to be filled in Q3.)
Local Military $1,500,000 (Page 12 of Q2 report says they expect to do $3 million for the rest of the year. I took 1/2 that # to be filled in Q3)
Export Military $1,700,000 (Press release August 8th $1.2 million order due in Q3. Also backlog page 13 of Q2 report had $1.4 million I took $500k of that for Q3)
So that is a total of $4.3 million in revenue.
Is that down from Q2? YES As I said before I felt that Q2 would be the largest revenue quarter for DFNS for that year. That is why I was a little disappointed with the big tax issues DFNS faced in Q2. Otherwise we could have seen .03 for the quarter and this stock would be in the .80 range right now instead of .60.
As far as earnings this is where it gets tricky but I figured I would put the #'s out anyway.
$800,000 revenue. Local Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 13% profit margin. I put a 10% margin on it for Q3 so $80,000 profits
$300,000 revenue. Export Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $45,000 profits.
$1,500,000 revenue. Local Military so far for the 6 months has been a 24% profit margin. I put a 20% margin on it for Q3 so $300,000 profits.
$1,700,000 revenue. Export Military so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $255,000 profits.
So a total of $4.3 million in revenue and $680,000 in profits.
Take 25% out for taxes ($170,000)
Down to $510,000 in net profits. (OF COURSE THIS DOESN'T INCLUDE CURRENCY EXCHANGE ETC..)
Which is about .017 EPS for the quarter. (They did $3.9 million in Q1 revenue and $478,000 in net income)
Add that to the other profits and after Q3 stands at roughly .053 EPS for the year.
AGAIN JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE BUT UNLESS they keep a bunch back for Q4 I think the revenue #'s I presented here will be within 300-400k +/-.
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Monday, August 27, 2007
CAGC and DFNS update
Hello StockDoubling members,
Sorry I haven't updated I was out of town for a while with the funeral etc..
I did end up listening to the conference call on CAGC's 2nd quarter earnings. It is very interesting and if any of you have an interest in the stock it is something you would want to listen to. (It is around 45-50 minutes the first part and the Q&A are the most interesting. You could skip thru the financial readings etc..)
The stock fell like a rock after earnings and fell some more after the call. I did buy some at $2.40 a share (500 shares) and will hold for more longer term. (I bought for my IRA) I think it could be a double in price over the next 12-18 months for sure at these levels. Currently trading a little over 1x P/S for this year. Even with all the issues they should earn .20-.30 I would think for the year. Which would be in the less than 10x PE ratio.
It could go down further if a ticked off investor decides to dump it. But based on a longer term horizon I think they are in good shape going forward. Their may be some bumps in the road but I think its a solid play for those willing to hold a year+.
As far as DFNS, not much is new since last posting. Still in the high .50's or low .60's. The next 2 weeks or so hopefully we get a news release about more orders which would effect this year's earnings. Any news release about new orders will bump up the stock price a little bit at least.
We are in a good position where we are UP in the stock now just waiting for a bigger payoff. It's better then being down a little bit and having to wait for a turnaround. So we have some breathing room even if the stock was to go down a little bit.
later this week I will give my estimates for Q3 for DFNS.
Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Sorry I haven't updated I was out of town for a while with the funeral etc..
I did end up listening to the conference call on CAGC's 2nd quarter earnings. It is very interesting and if any of you have an interest in the stock it is something you would want to listen to. (It is around 45-50 minutes the first part and the Q&A are the most interesting. You could skip thru the financial readings etc..)
The stock fell like a rock after earnings and fell some more after the call. I did buy some at $2.40 a share (500 shares) and will hold for more longer term. (I bought for my IRA) I think it could be a double in price over the next 12-18 months for sure at these levels. Currently trading a little over 1x P/S for this year. Even with all the issues they should earn .20-.30 I would think for the year. Which would be in the less than 10x PE ratio.
It could go down further if a ticked off investor decides to dump it. But based on a longer term horizon I think they are in good shape going forward. Their may be some bumps in the road but I think its a solid play for those willing to hold a year+.
As far as DFNS, not much is new since last posting. Still in the high .50's or low .60's. The next 2 weeks or so hopefully we get a news release about more orders which would effect this year's earnings. Any news release about new orders will bump up the stock price a little bit at least.
We are in a good position where we are UP in the stock now just waiting for a bigger payoff. It's better then being down a little bit and having to wait for a turnaround. So we have some breathing room even if the stock was to go down a little bit.
later this week I will give my estimates for Q3 for DFNS.
Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Friday, August 17, 2007
wild market
DFNS took a hit yesterday with the rest of the market.
It was a wild ride on the DOW.
And with the Fed cut rates has helped stocks a bit.
Its a good thing I didn't sell DFNS to buy CAGC. It got hammered after its earnings.
And was way down yesterday. A great buying opportunity for those willing to hold for a year+.
The company projects about .32 EPS this year based on the outstanding shares now. Not a ton of downside unless the market crashes or something. Their 2nd quarter was disappointing but I think it will still do quite well over a year+.
They had a conference call you can listen to via yahoo if you are interested in the stock check that out first. (I haven't listened to it yet.)
Due to the death of my wife grandmother (92). I will be traveling and attending the funeral etc.. so unless something MAJOR happens with DFNS I won't be having a blog on Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
It was a wild ride on the DOW.
And with the Fed cut rates has helped stocks a bit.
Its a good thing I didn't sell DFNS to buy CAGC. It got hammered after its earnings.
And was way down yesterday. A great buying opportunity for those willing to hold for a year+.
The company projects about .32 EPS this year based on the outstanding shares now. Not a ton of downside unless the market crashes or something. Their 2nd quarter was disappointing but I think it will still do quite well over a year+.
They had a conference call you can listen to via yahoo if you are interested in the stock check that out first. (I haven't listened to it yet.)
Due to the death of my wife grandmother (92). I will be traveling and attending the funeral etc.. so unless something MAJOR happens with DFNS I won't be having a blog on Monday or Tuesday of next week.
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Thursday, August 16, 2007
DFNS press release is out
DFNS came out with their press release. They didn't say a whole lot expect this....
"Our enhanced sales and marketing efforts are already paying off, as we are receiving new orders from new significant customers world-wide. An example of this is our recently announced order for a body armor product from a new client from a CIS country."
So that is good news for future orders.
I would like to see some more order announcements between now and mid September to have any effect on this years revenue and earnings.
Anything after that probably won't effect this years earnings at all.
So unless we hear from the company about new orders etc... We won't hear from them again until mid November with the 3rd quarter earnings release.
The StockDoubling project is a 1 year project per stock. (though we have done it on average less then 4 months for the other ones) We are only 4 months into DFNS and we are still up over 20% right now. Not amazing but still what many people would LOVE over 1 year.
Assuming the company doesn't come out with bad news. (IE lost contracts, lawsuit, issuing more shares etc...) I wouldn't think the stock should see much lower than around .50 (which is our purchase point.)
Assuming the company doesn't come out with good news. (IE new orders, buyback, buying company etc..)
I wouldn't think the stock should see much higher than .70.
So I think we are range bound in the .50-.70 range for a while.
I think their is more possibility of GOOD news over the next 3 months then their is bad news though.
I still think its a good medium term buy if you can get it for .50. But short term its a little top heavy at .70
I am in and looking forward to good news coming from DFNS.
Have a good trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
"Our enhanced sales and marketing efforts are already paying off, as we are receiving new orders from new significant customers world-wide. An example of this is our recently announced order for a body armor product from a new client from a CIS country."
So that is good news for future orders.
I would like to see some more order announcements between now and mid September to have any effect on this years revenue and earnings.
Anything after that probably won't effect this years earnings at all.
So unless we hear from the company about new orders etc... We won't hear from them again until mid November with the 3rd quarter earnings release.
The StockDoubling project is a 1 year project per stock. (though we have done it on average less then 4 months for the other ones) We are only 4 months into DFNS and we are still up over 20% right now. Not amazing but still what many people would LOVE over 1 year.
Assuming the company doesn't come out with bad news. (IE lost contracts, lawsuit, issuing more shares etc...) I wouldn't think the stock should see much lower than around .50 (which is our purchase point.)
Assuming the company doesn't come out with good news. (IE new orders, buyback, buying company etc..)
I wouldn't think the stock should see much higher than .70.
So I think we are range bound in the .50-.70 range for a while.
I think their is more possibility of GOOD news over the next 3 months then their is bad news though.
I still think its a good medium term buy if you can get it for .50. But short term its a little top heavy at .70
I am in and looking forward to good news coming from DFNS.
Have a good trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Sold some DFNS IRA shares
I sold my shares I had in my IRA for DFNS.
(4700 shares at .64)
I wanted to free up some cash for the monthly stock selections I will be having hopefully later this month or after Labor day.
I still feel confident in DFNS. However I don't know that it will run too high unless they get some big order announcements.
I also didn't like the fact I was 100% into DFNS and didn't have any cash on the sidelines or another stock. (I still own the 8000 shares of DFNS for the stockdoubling project and another 2450 shares for my personal account.)
We could be stuck in the .50-.70 range for a while unless we see some news from the company on new orders etc..
The revenue # was GREAT. The earnings # was OK at best. Without the big tax issues I think we would have seen .70+ today.
The company should come out with a Press release either today or tomorrow I would think just giving their thoughts and future comments which could bump the stock a little bit.
Next earnings release isn't until mid Nov. I will give projections on that in future blog postings etc...
Currently I am sitting tight on the stockdoubling project shares.
I don't see a reason why it should trade less than .50 but don't see a reason why it should trade more than .70+ right now either. UNLESS WE GET SOME MORE NEWS ON ORDERS FROM THE COMPANY!
Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
(4700 shares at .64)
I wanted to free up some cash for the monthly stock selections I will be having hopefully later this month or after Labor day.
I still feel confident in DFNS. However I don't know that it will run too high unless they get some big order announcements.
I also didn't like the fact I was 100% into DFNS and didn't have any cash on the sidelines or another stock. (I still own the 8000 shares of DFNS for the stockdoubling project and another 2450 shares for my personal account.)
We could be stuck in the .50-.70 range for a while unless we see some news from the company on new orders etc..
The revenue # was GREAT. The earnings # was OK at best. Without the big tax issues I think we would have seen .70+ today.
The company should come out with a Press release either today or tomorrow I would think just giving their thoughts and future comments which could bump the stock a little bit.
Next earnings release isn't until mid Nov. I will give projections on that in future blog postings etc...
Currently I am sitting tight on the stockdoubling project shares.
I don't see a reason why it should trade less than .50 but don't see a reason why it should trade more than .70+ right now either. UNLESS WE GET SOME MORE NEWS ON ORDERS FROM THE COMPANY!
Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
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