BeforeItMoves.com Stock Video Ebook price is jumping hopefully later this week.
Currently just $47 for the Stock Video package of how I find stocks to pick for the StockDoubling project. That price will more than double to its normal $97 price late this week. (Depending on clickbank approval)
So if you want to save $50 check out the site now.
You will still have an 8 week money back gurantee so if it isn't for you. Get a full refund.
I will be using these same videos for the other stock project that is coming online that will be available next month. I use this information to find the stocks that I feel have great potential for gains.
The information in the videos is what I use each and every time I am looking for stocks to buy myself.
Whether you are looking for longer term horizons or short term this can help.
Here is one example of a stock I covered back on May 24th 2006 (14 months ago) It was part of the "OTHER" stocks for stockdoubling.com
(The following was written for the May 24th stockdoubling email in which I covered PSIT.)
"TBSI $5.90 This company is making good money should earn well over $1 EPS this year. It is trading at 3-5X P/E and is just below book value. Has good value and could be a good double. Down side it is in a down trend on the chart and I don't know that it is finished going down yet. Oil prices effect this company. Maybe the safest pick of the bunch if you hold for a while. But could go under $5 as well."
If you look at a chart for TBSI you can see its amazing run its had. The downtrend wasn't quite over at the end of May it got down to the low $5's as thought but holding it for this 14 months would have returned a HUGE profit! It hit $39.99 just a week or so ago!!! I never owned the stock myself but putting myself in front of SOLID stocks to own gives a great opportunity to make good money.
Or even just as recent as April 9th 2007. One of our "OTHER" stocks was TSSW.
(This was posted on our blog on April 9th)
"TSSW .76 This stock has also moved up a bit in the last month or two. They are also a very small company having revenue of just over $3 million for 2006. But they made .06 EPS and grew about 100% last year. They seem to have things together and their websites (which is how they sell) are ever increasing in hits each month. They also have plans for other products that could increase revenues. Insiders own a good deal of this stock (35%) Issue is I am looking for a double in price or $1.50 can this stock get there. A $1.50 stock price would mean a $20 million marketcap for a company that may do $5 million this year in revenue. EPS does matter but where will they be even with .10 EPS for the year I would need a 15 x EPS. Which for the industry they are in is very low but it is also a small stock. I think it has potential to go higher I would like to see a bit lower price though first."
If you check a chart for TSSW you can see a move to OVER $1.90 a share. It has since fallen after a BIG MOVE UP. I would still think the stock should trade in the $1.00-$1.80 range the rest of the year. Again getting in front of a nice move can make you money. Thats why I called it BEFOREITMOVES!
Check out www.BeforeItMoves.com to get your Stock Video Ebook. It is how I trade!
Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Monday, July 30, 2007
Various news
Both HIHO and CAGC have had nice runs the last couple weeks. Looks like I got out of both in bad spots.
HIHO especially last week it rose to over $5 a share. And they haven't even announced a dividend. Doesn't look like they will either.
They have had other news releases which seem to be good for the longer term. Though I don't like it right now.
CAGC has moved as well.
Nothing new on DFNS I think it offers good risk/reward for the shorter term. Assuming they were able to turn their revenue into earnings.
If they lose money or earn very little the stock could fall to the .40's or low .50's on a quick reaction.
Based on what the company says though the revenues look strong.
FYI I never did hear back from DFNS investor relations on the questions that I had.
Have a good Monday.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
HIHO especially last week it rose to over $5 a share. And they haven't even announced a dividend. Doesn't look like they will either.
They have had other news releases which seem to be good for the longer term. Though I don't like it right now.
CAGC has moved as well.
Nothing new on DFNS I think it offers good risk/reward for the shorter term. Assuming they were able to turn their revenue into earnings.
If they lose money or earn very little the stock could fall to the .40's or low .50's on a quick reaction.
Based on what the company says though the revenues look strong.
FYI I never did hear back from DFNS investor relations on the questions that I had.
Have a good Monday.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Thursday, July 26, 2007
What is DFNS downfall?
I don't like the fact of no momentum being seen in the DFNS stock price.
The big seller may be moving some of his shares but I can't imagine he can get out of all of them at these levels.
My only concerns I really have with DFNS is if they continue to have a big backlog and not moving that to revenue. (Would be disappointed with any revenue lower than $5 million this quarter.) The revenue is their for the taking just depends how they want to spread it out etc.. Things can get pushed back more and more.
And whether their margins hold up and are able to produce the profits needed. They will have a LOT more admin salaries going out due to the big revenue growths so that will hurt them a bit.
Assuming they aren't going to issue a bunch more shares to look at other businesses etc.. I think they can produce good $$$.
Assuming one time charges and currency exchanges don't effect profits too much I would think .02+ is doable for the quarter. Which would mean roughly .04 eps for the year so far. I think they can do at least that in the 2nd half of the year as well. Which means probably a .08-.10EPS for the year.
Based on a 10x PE ratio that is a .80-$1 stock. I think this stock could command a 12-15x PE though since it is growing at such a good rate. (revenue should grow roughly 60-80% for the year)
At a 12 x PE on .08-10EPS is .96-$1.20
At a 15x PE on .08-.10EPS is $1.20-$1.50
Worst case unless something goes really bad I would imagine they would earn at least .06 EPS for the year. Even with a 10x PE that is a .60 stock which is where we sit now.
I think the issue with many investors is they want to see the earnings continue to grow. 1 profitable quarter doesn't make a trend. But 2 will and I think we could see some good movement then.
Were in from .50 on the stockdoubling project so unless the wheels fall off for some reason I don't see much downside on that price. Based on what the company is saying in their news releases revenues and orders they foresee growing nicely over the next while.
August 15th or so should be interesting for the stock. I can't wait to see what happens.
I won't be available tomorrow. (Unless something big happens I won't update the blog.)
Have a great weekend
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
The big seller may be moving some of his shares but I can't imagine he can get out of all of them at these levels.
My only concerns I really have with DFNS is if they continue to have a big backlog and not moving that to revenue. (Would be disappointed with any revenue lower than $5 million this quarter.) The revenue is their for the taking just depends how they want to spread it out etc.. Things can get pushed back more and more.
And whether their margins hold up and are able to produce the profits needed. They will have a LOT more admin salaries going out due to the big revenue growths so that will hurt them a bit.
Assuming they aren't going to issue a bunch more shares to look at other businesses etc.. I think they can produce good $$$.
Assuming one time charges and currency exchanges don't effect profits too much I would think .02+ is doable for the quarter. Which would mean roughly .04 eps for the year so far. I think they can do at least that in the 2nd half of the year as well. Which means probably a .08-.10EPS for the year.
Based on a 10x PE ratio that is a .80-$1 stock. I think this stock could command a 12-15x PE though since it is growing at such a good rate. (revenue should grow roughly 60-80% for the year)
At a 12 x PE on .08-10EPS is .96-$1.20
At a 15x PE on .08-.10EPS is $1.20-$1.50
Worst case unless something goes really bad I would imagine they would earn at least .06 EPS for the year. Even with a 10x PE that is a .60 stock which is where we sit now.
I think the issue with many investors is they want to see the earnings continue to grow. 1 profitable quarter doesn't make a trend. But 2 will and I think we could see some good movement then.
Were in from .50 on the stockdoubling project so unless the wheels fall off for some reason I don't see much downside on that price. Based on what the company is saying in their news releases revenues and orders they foresee growing nicely over the next while.
August 15th or so should be interesting for the stock. I can't wait to see what happens.
I won't be available tomorrow. (Unless something big happens I won't update the blog.)
Have a great weekend
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Monday, July 23, 2007
DFNS NEWS update and earnings?
Friday had some great news with DFNS.
They announced a new order for $1.5 million for Israel Defense. Which will be delivered in the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter of this year.
This is on top of the $4 million in orders the military ordered back in Jan. and $2.2 million ordered in Feb.
Based on the #'s that I see on the press releases they have the following...
$4 million
$2.2 million (with possible 20% over that or additional $400k)
$1.5 million
----------------
$7.7 million in Israel Defense Ministry orders (That have been released via a press release, their could be smaller orders that weren't released I don't know.)
The $4 million order was suppose to be delivered by April according to the Jan. press release.
The $2.2 million order was suppose to be delivered by July according to the Feb press release.
The $1.5 million order is suppose to be delivered in the 3rd and 4th quarter (July-Dec) according to Friday's release.
So far we only have the #'s for Q1 and looking over those #'s the Local military which I assume is the Israel Defense ministry the revenue was only $1.5 million!!
They were suppose to have $6.2-$6.6 million delivered by July. Now the Israel Defense ministry may push that back etc.. But if they are continuing to order I would think they are needing more and more. Which leads me to believe that a good chunk of it was delivered in Q2.
I don't think the Local Military will be $5 million for the quarter in revenue. But I could see it being $3 million million. WHICH WOULD BE HUGE!!
The local military last quarter was the most profitable with the highest margins around 21% according to my calucations. If DFNS did $3 million for Q2 in just Local military that would mean roughly $650,000 in pretax income. Which is like .02 EPS by itself!
Local civilian tends to run in the $700-$900K per quarter range and has a small profit.
Based on Feb and April press releases they had the bus orders which were to be delivered in April and June which is Q2 + military export totaling $1.3 million.
On top of that they have some backlog to run through.
These are all guesses of course on my part but I could forsee a $5.5-$6.5 million Q2 revenue with a range on EPS of .01-.03 EPS. (They only did $1.8 million in revenue Q2 last year.)
Of course they could push stuff back to the Q3 which would be disappointing but possible.
With such a small company a $1 million can be a HUGE difference either way.
I think if the company delivered the products as the contracts orginally stated and the company turned a decent profit I think we will be looking at a nice quarter. I am looking for a big jump in revenues from Q1. Hopefully we will see it.
DFNS had its 2nd largest volume day on Friday which is good to see. It was up a good amount and closed up as well. (The largest volume day so far this year was Q1 release day)
August 15th is the big day.
Thank you for all those who emailed me about the new project I am thinking about. (You can find it on Friday's Blog) The response was positive and I will probably move towards that in the coming weeks.
Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
They announced a new order for $1.5 million for Israel Defense. Which will be delivered in the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter of this year.
This is on top of the $4 million in orders the military ordered back in Jan. and $2.2 million ordered in Feb.
Based on the #'s that I see on the press releases they have the following...
$4 million
$2.2 million (with possible 20% over that or additional $400k)
$1.5 million
----------------
$7.7 million in Israel Defense Ministry orders (That have been released via a press release, their could be smaller orders that weren't released I don't know.)
The $4 million order was suppose to be delivered by April according to the Jan. press release.
The $2.2 million order was suppose to be delivered by July according to the Feb press release.
The $1.5 million order is suppose to be delivered in the 3rd and 4th quarter (July-Dec) according to Friday's release.
So far we only have the #'s for Q1 and looking over those #'s the Local military which I assume is the Israel Defense ministry the revenue was only $1.5 million!!
They were suppose to have $6.2-$6.6 million delivered by July. Now the Israel Defense ministry may push that back etc.. But if they are continuing to order I would think they are needing more and more. Which leads me to believe that a good chunk of it was delivered in Q2.
I don't think the Local Military will be $5 million for the quarter in revenue. But I could see it being $3 million million. WHICH WOULD BE HUGE!!
The local military last quarter was the most profitable with the highest margins around 21% according to my calucations. If DFNS did $3 million for Q2 in just Local military that would mean roughly $650,000 in pretax income. Which is like .02 EPS by itself!
Local civilian tends to run in the $700-$900K per quarter range and has a small profit.
Based on Feb and April press releases they had the bus orders which were to be delivered in April and June which is Q2 + military export totaling $1.3 million.
On top of that they have some backlog to run through.
These are all guesses of course on my part but I could forsee a $5.5-$6.5 million Q2 revenue with a range on EPS of .01-.03 EPS. (They only did $1.8 million in revenue Q2 last year.)
Of course they could push stuff back to the Q3 which would be disappointing but possible.
With such a small company a $1 million can be a HUGE difference either way.
I think if the company delivered the products as the contracts orginally stated and the company turned a decent profit I think we will be looking at a nice quarter. I am looking for a big jump in revenues from Q1. Hopefully we will see it.
DFNS had its 2nd largest volume day on Friday which is good to see. It was up a good amount and closed up as well. (The largest volume day so far this year was Q1 release day)
August 15th is the big day.
Thank you for all those who emailed me about the new project I am thinking about. (You can find it on Friday's Blog) The response was positive and I will probably move towards that in the coming weeks.
Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Friday, July 20, 2007
DFNS NEWS
Nice another News release from DFNS today about $1.5 million more in NEW ORDERS. Which will be delivered in the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year!!!
Too put that into prespective that is about 15% in that one order what they did ALL of last year!!!
They should do 60-100% increase in revenues for the year and could earn as much as .10 EPS for the year.
Great News hopefully get a nice bump in the stock price. Looks like a decent move in the last 20 minutes already and NICE VOLUME!!
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Too put that into prespective that is about 15% in that one order what they did ALL of last year!!!
They should do 60-100% increase in revenues for the year and could earn as much as .10 EPS for the year.
Great News hopefully get a nice bump in the stock price. Looks like a decent move in the last 20 minutes already and NICE VOLUME!!
Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
New Project for US?
I am considering a website that be a membership only site about trading stocks.
Basically I would find 3 stocks a month to trade.
(COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM STOCKDOUBLING.COM THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT WOULD NOT CHANGE!!!!
These stocks would be stocks that I feel could return 10-50% return in 1-3 months. If you have followed the stockdoubling project for any amount of time you probably have noticed the increase in value of the stocks I have picked (even the OTHER stocks).
So rather than wait for 4 months or a year for a stock to double you could also TRADE some stocks for quick gains.
Again these wouldn't be the same picks as the StockDoubling project and I wouldn't recommend using the same money for both. You should have 2 different accounts or at least know that one is for trading and one is for the stockdoubling project.
The membership site would cost roughly $25 a month and like I said would probably give 3 new stocks a month that I am looking for gains.
It could be a fun way to make some money off the stock market while we wait for the StockDoubling project to hit.
Let me know if you would have an interest. (Not committing to anything just wonder if the interest is there.)
FYI nothing from DFNS IR as of yet. I will send them another email on Monday if I don't hear from them by then.
Either post a comment on the blog on your thoughts on the membership site or send me an email to alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Have a great weekend
Thank you
Steve Hoven
Basically I would find 3 stocks a month to trade.
(COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM STOCKDOUBLING.COM THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT WOULD NOT CHANGE!!!!
These stocks would be stocks that I feel could return 10-50% return in 1-3 months. If you have followed the stockdoubling project for any amount of time you probably have noticed the increase in value of the stocks I have picked (even the OTHER stocks).
So rather than wait for 4 months or a year for a stock to double you could also TRADE some stocks for quick gains.
Again these wouldn't be the same picks as the StockDoubling project and I wouldn't recommend using the same money for both. You should have 2 different accounts or at least know that one is for trading and one is for the stockdoubling project.
The membership site would cost roughly $25 a month and like I said would probably give 3 new stocks a month that I am looking for gains.
It could be a fun way to make some money off the stock market while we wait for the StockDoubling project to hit.
Let me know if you would have an interest. (Not committing to anything just wonder if the interest is there.)
FYI nothing from DFNS IR as of yet. I will send them another email on Monday if I don't hear from them by then.
Either post a comment on the blog on your thoughts on the membership site or send me an email to alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Have a great weekend
Thank you
Steve Hoven
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Not much happening
I haven't heard back from IR at DFNS yet. Why IR has to forward my questions to the company I am not sure. I thought it was the IR's job to know the answers and handle that type of stuff that is why they get paid I thought.
Anyway still nothing from them maybe I will get it by the time Q2 earnings are released I don't know.
I have been under the weather and just drained the last couple of days. WAY too much on my plate right now and I seem to add more to it.
I took the night off yesterday and relaxed last night and feel some what better this morning. I am taking the day off today as well and going to a fair with my family. So have a good day and if I hear anything I will update the blog.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Anyway still nothing from them maybe I will get it by the time Q2 earnings are released I don't know.
I have been under the weather and just drained the last couple of days. WAY too much on my plate right now and I seem to add more to it.
I took the night off yesterday and relaxed last night and feel some what better this morning. I am taking the day off today as well and going to a fair with my family. So have a good day and if I hear anything I will update the blog.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Monday, July 16, 2007
Review of the 5 stocks!
No volume today on DFNS.
Since it was a quiet day lets review the 5 stocks that we selected back on April 9th 2007. You can read the original information on these stocks in the April 9th edition of the blog.
DFNS .(50) currently .61 up 22% so far. This was the pick for the StockDoubling project. I have gone into great details about this stock and won't rehash it all. It is still my only holding that I have. I am waiting for information on my questions from the company yet. And August 15th is the big day.
THE OTHER 4 STOCKS....
GLDS (.275) currently .33 up 20% so far. This stock has recently changed the name of the stock and the symbol which is now AIRI I haven't followed the company that closely. They are finishing up a great deal of acquisitions and their sales will be UP dramatically. They have a great deal of stock outstanding though and will probably have a bunch more with the added expenses etc.. They did say they would be profitable but how many shares will be out there will be key. I wouldn't be surprised to see a reverse split on the stock this year either. (which are usually not good) But it would bring the # of shares down and the price up at least temporary. Its a hard stock to gauge at this point. (smells too much like ATSX as far as issuing stock etc..so I am hesitant.)
AYSI (.67) currently .41 down 39% so far. This stock has been the disappointment of the group. It has had a HUGE run this year though. The company had disappointing Q2 earnings which rocked the stock. I don't think they will come close to my April 9th earnings estimates I had but they could still earn a good amount this year. They are growing revenues quickly and the top 2 guys in the company own 73% of the stock so the float isn't much. The .40 area could hold for some support. If it doesn't I think .30 will. Its a higher risk stock just because its so small. But if they produce a good Q3 this stock should get back to the .60's+.
TSSW (.76) currently $1.80 up 137% so far. This stock has been the winner of the group so far. They are also a small company but growing rapidly. They are earning money and people are loving this stock again. I think it is a little pricey at these levels but the company seems to be running full steam ahead so we will see where it goes.
CAGC ($2.90) currently $3.70 up 27% so far. This stock I have talked about a lot recently so you can review those posts. Basically the company is profitable and growing at a good rate. Has some good potential going forward to be a nice stock. Not a ton of downside but not a double I don't think within 6 months either. Decent risk/reward for a longer term holder 12-18+ months.
If you put $100 in each stock based on the posting price on April 9th you would have invested $500. Based on today's closing price your $500 would now be worth $667 or a 33% return for just over 3 months! And I think if you check back 3 months from now most of those stocks should be higher.
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Since it was a quiet day lets review the 5 stocks that we selected back on April 9th 2007. You can read the original information on these stocks in the April 9th edition of the blog.
DFNS .(50) currently .61 up 22% so far. This was the pick for the StockDoubling project. I have gone into great details about this stock and won't rehash it all. It is still my only holding that I have. I am waiting for information on my questions from the company yet. And August 15th is the big day.
THE OTHER 4 STOCKS....
GLDS (.275) currently .33 up 20% so far. This stock has recently changed the name of the stock and the symbol which is now AIRI I haven't followed the company that closely. They are finishing up a great deal of acquisitions and their sales will be UP dramatically. They have a great deal of stock outstanding though and will probably have a bunch more with the added expenses etc.. They did say they would be profitable but how many shares will be out there will be key. I wouldn't be surprised to see a reverse split on the stock this year either. (which are usually not good) But it would bring the # of shares down and the price up at least temporary. Its a hard stock to gauge at this point. (smells too much like ATSX as far as issuing stock etc..so I am hesitant.)
AYSI (.67) currently .41 down 39% so far. This stock has been the disappointment of the group. It has had a HUGE run this year though. The company had disappointing Q2 earnings which rocked the stock. I don't think they will come close to my April 9th earnings estimates I had but they could still earn a good amount this year. They are growing revenues quickly and the top 2 guys in the company own 73% of the stock so the float isn't much. The .40 area could hold for some support. If it doesn't I think .30 will. Its a higher risk stock just because its so small. But if they produce a good Q3 this stock should get back to the .60's+.
TSSW (.76) currently $1.80 up 137% so far. This stock has been the winner of the group so far. They are also a small company but growing rapidly. They are earning money and people are loving this stock again. I think it is a little pricey at these levels but the company seems to be running full steam ahead so we will see where it goes.
CAGC ($2.90) currently $3.70 up 27% so far. This stock I have talked about a lot recently so you can review those posts. Basically the company is profitable and growing at a good rate. Has some good potential going forward to be a nice stock. Not a ton of downside but not a double I don't think within 6 months either. Decent risk/reward for a longer term holder 12-18+ months.
If you put $100 in each stock based on the posting price on April 9th you would have invested $500. Based on today's closing price your $500 would now be worth $667 or a 33% return for just over 3 months! And I think if you check back 3 months from now most of those stocks should be higher.
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Friday, July 13, 2007
StockDoubling Project is ALIVE!
Well, I am back.
StockDoubling.com project isn't dead I guess at least not yet anyway.
The procedure went fine. (They put a camera down my throat to look at my stomach and stretched my throat out, I was having trouble getting certain foods down sometimes.)
Thank you for thoughts and prayers about it.
I was out of it a bit and don't remember a lot about it right after etc..
But I do remember that I am in DFNS and I still think it is a great stock to own. I did hear from the IR (Investor relations) at DFNS basically they are forwarding the questions I had to the company and will get back with me shortly. Since its the weekend now in the mid east I would expect hopefully to hear something back the first part of next week.
I will let you know if I find out anything of value from the answers.
We have to remember that when the StockDoubling project was started that the goal was for 1 winning stock in a YEAR! Well we were at Level 3 after just 14 months. So things went fast. Which may have spoiled us a bit but remember what the goal was. 1 stock to double in a year.
It has only been 3 months for DFNS so far and we are up roughly 20% from the .50 original purchase price. So we do have a little cushion.
The first 2 stocks I picked (GNBT, and PSIT) both took 4 months in order to double. And that is right around August 15th for DFNS. And I think we could really get a good move in the stock on that news assuming of course it is good news.
Time will tell, you need to ALWAYS evaluate stocks yourself don't just take my word for it. Not every stock I pick will be right for everyone. See if it fits what you are looking for and evaluate it yourself as well.
IT'S YOUR MONEY. NO ONE WILL CARE FOR YOUR MONEY MORE THAN YOU WILL.
Have a GREAT weekend.
Thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
StockDoubling.com project isn't dead I guess at least not yet anyway.
The procedure went fine. (They put a camera down my throat to look at my stomach and stretched my throat out, I was having trouble getting certain foods down sometimes.)
Thank you for thoughts and prayers about it.
I was out of it a bit and don't remember a lot about it right after etc..
But I do remember that I am in DFNS and I still think it is a great stock to own. I did hear from the IR (Investor relations) at DFNS basically they are forwarding the questions I had to the company and will get back with me shortly. Since its the weekend now in the mid east I would expect hopefully to hear something back the first part of next week.
I will let you know if I find out anything of value from the answers.
We have to remember that when the StockDoubling project was started that the goal was for 1 winning stock in a YEAR! Well we were at Level 3 after just 14 months. So things went fast. Which may have spoiled us a bit but remember what the goal was. 1 stock to double in a year.
It has only been 3 months for DFNS so far and we are up roughly 20% from the .50 original purchase price. So we do have a little cushion.
The first 2 stocks I picked (GNBT, and PSIT) both took 4 months in order to double. And that is right around August 15th for DFNS. And I think we could really get a good move in the stock on that news assuming of course it is good news.
Time will tell, you need to ALWAYS evaluate stocks yourself don't just take my word for it. Not every stock I pick will be right for everyone. See if it fits what you are looking for and evaluate it yourself as well.
IT'S YOUR MONEY. NO ONE WILL CARE FOR YOUR MONEY MORE THAN YOU WILL.
Have a GREAT weekend.
Thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Is this the end of the StockDoubling Project????
Looks like I got out of HIHO and CAGC too early as both rebounded nicely from their news.
Just another example of staying in stocks until your targets instead of jumping in and out of them. Both stocks I think will do fine longer term 6-12 months out. I just didn't see a huge upside like before after they announced news.
I will probably not have an update tomorrow. I am going in for a minor procedure in which I will be put under so I may be out of it most of the day and don't want to post something CRAZY while under the influence of gas. (I have not heard back yet from DFNS IR)
You never know what could happen maybe I won't make it. (Only God knows, its in his hands.)
But if I never come back the stockdoubling project would die with me. But that doesn't mean you can't still pick stocks like me. CHECK OUT
www.BeforeItMoves.com
Sorry I had to plug it just in case. LOL
Lord willing I will have a post on Friday morning
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Just another example of staying in stocks until your targets instead of jumping in and out of them. Both stocks I think will do fine longer term 6-12 months out. I just didn't see a huge upside like before after they announced news.
I will probably not have an update tomorrow. I am going in for a minor procedure in which I will be put under so I may be out of it most of the day and don't want to post something CRAZY while under the influence of gas. (I have not heard back yet from DFNS IR)
You never know what could happen maybe I won't make it. (Only God knows, its in his hands.)
But if I never come back the stockdoubling project would die with me. But that doesn't mean you can't still pick stocks like me. CHECK OUT
www.BeforeItMoves.com
Sorry I had to plug it just in case. LOL
Lord willing I will have a post on Friday morning
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Bought more DFNS and contacted IR
I just picked up the last of DFNS that I could at .605 (FOR MY IRA)
I also just called IR (left a message) and sent them 7 questions I had via email. So I will let you know if I hear anything back.
The company seems confident that the revenue would continue. Let's see if the earnings will follow suit. I know they will probably take a $50,000 hit for the issuing of that 3 million stock back a month or so ago. So that may cut into earnings a little bit. (strictly for the legal fees etc I think I remember reading that somewhere)
But even if they do another .02 EPS for the quarter I think looking at good shape. I think they can do better then that though. I am HOPING for closer to .03 or .04. (Not sure if that is realistic though)
I would also like to see another contract release this month while we wait for Q2 earnings. That would be a GREAT boost to the stock going into earnings.
Even a release that ballparks what Q2 was on the revenue side etc.. Would be a GREAT HELP to get us to new highs.
It is the only stock I own at this point so I am hoping for some nice returns.
Remember if you are in the US or Canada and would like to earn $500 for a scottrade account send me an email and I will forward you the details.
Have a great day
I also just called IR (left a message) and sent them 7 questions I had via email. So I will let you know if I hear anything back.
The company seems confident that the revenue would continue. Let's see if the earnings will follow suit. I know they will probably take a $50,000 hit for the issuing of that 3 million stock back a month or so ago. So that may cut into earnings a little bit. (strictly for the legal fees etc I think I remember reading that somewhere)
But even if they do another .02 EPS for the quarter I think looking at good shape. I think they can do better then that though. I am HOPING for closer to .03 or .04. (Not sure if that is realistic though)
I would also like to see another contract release this month while we wait for Q2 earnings. That would be a GREAT boost to the stock going into earnings.
Even a release that ballparks what Q2 was on the revenue side etc.. Would be a GREAT HELP to get us to new highs.
It is the only stock I own at this point so I am hoping for some nice returns.
Remember if you are in the US or Canada and would like to earn $500 for a scottrade account send me an email and I will forward you the details.
Have a great day
Monday, July 9, 2007
$500 for scottrade account?
Not much to report today.
DFNS closed down a little bit but the bid ask is .60-.62 which is nice. We will see where it goes the rest of the week.
I have to get some questions together to email IR at DFNS.
For those of you who are in the US or Canada and haven't setup a brokerage account yet. And are interested in earning $500 towards opening a scottrade trade account send me an email. Their is an interesting way to make some money for those interested.
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
DFNS closed down a little bit but the bid ask is .60-.62 which is nice. We will see where it goes the rest of the week.
I have to get some questions together to email IR at DFNS.
For those of you who are in the US or Canada and haven't setup a brokerage account yet. And are interested in earning $500 towards opening a scottrade trade account send me an email. Their is an interesting way to make some money for those interested.
Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Friday, July 6, 2007
.62 Weekly close for DFNS!
I bought 1000 shares just before the close today at .62. (Those were for my IRA and have no bearing on the StockDoubling.com project.) So I made sure it closed above that .61 area. We will see if that brings out any momentum for next week. I still haven't contacted DFNS but will next week for sure. That .62 close is a new weekly close HIGH for the year.
Today had a little over 40,000 volume which isn't much really but is actually the biggest volume day since June 21st. So hopefully things are moving in the right direction and news gets out about DFNS. We are moving in the right direction though would like to see some closes in the .70's and .80s.
Have a great weekend.
Talk to you Monday.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Today had a little over 40,000 volume which isn't much really but is actually the biggest volume day since June 21st. So hopefully things are moving in the right direction and news gets out about DFNS. We are moving in the right direction though would like to see some closes in the .70's and .80s.
Have a great weekend.
Talk to you Monday.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Thursday, July 5, 2007
DFNS Weekly Chart! Ready to move?
Here is a 1 year weekly chart of DFNS. I drew a couple of trendlines on it. The horizontal trendline shows the resistance currently facing. (You can click the chart to make it look bigger)
As you can see from the chart it hasn't had a closed above .61. Even though it traded higher then that it never closed above that. We are sitting at .60 right now.
I think if we can get a close above .61 the stock should move nicely to the low .70's-low .80's. If I see a weekly close above .61 I will probably buy a few more shares strictly just for trading I would exit those shares probably in the low .70's or so. I don't want to be too over weighted in the stock but if I see a good trade I will take it.
I think it would look REALLY good for Q2 earnings if we could get a rally prior the earnings release.
I haven't contact DFNS yet but its on my list. Hopefully I will get to it later today. (You are always free to contact them as well.)
Have a good day
Steve Hoven
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Have a great 4th of July!
Have a happy 4th of July. Stay safe! Don't eat too much!
I'll be back tomorrow when the markets are open.
If you purchased the Stock Videos from BeforeItMoves.com and if you aren't having a picnic and have some time today would be a great day to check out the videos and see if you can spot some quality picks. Remember I will give you my thoughts on one pick if you purchased the stock videos back in June. So get me that stock you want me to research for you.
Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I'll be back tomorrow when the markets are open.
If you purchased the Stock Videos from BeforeItMoves.com and if you aren't having a picnic and have some time today would be a great day to check out the videos and see if you can spot some quality picks. Remember I will give you my thoughts on one pick if you purchased the stock videos back in June. So get me that stock you want me to research for you.
Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Room for Error?
ROOM FOR ERROR?
Are you leaving enough room for error in your stocks? If your stock misses an estimate on their quarter do you have it covered? Or are your estimates so high that any misstep could cost you BIG.
I was flipping the channels the other day and landed on CNBC the Mad Money show (Jim Cramer) he was talking about undervalued stocks etc.. (I DO NOT FOLLOW JIM CRAMER IN GENERAL THIS WAS JUST AN INTERESTING THOUGHT SO I THOUGHT I WOULD PASS IT ON.)
One of the ways he likes to look at that is by comparing the P/E ratio with the growth rate. (The following is NOT word for word of what he said but the general idea of it.)
For example lets say the company is a $10 stock and has $1 in earnings. Or a Price to earnings(P/E) ratio of 10. (P/E is price of the stock divided by the earnings of the stock) The company is growing at 20% a year. So in theory if the company grows at 20% for the coming year they would earn $1.20 per share. If they again had a 10x P/E ratio that would now be a $12 stock. So you would have made 20% on your money.
Now lets say we have a different stock this stock is trading $100 a share. It has earnings of $5 a share. So it has a P/E ratio of 20x. Now lets say this company is only growing at a 10% rate. So next year in theory they would earn $5.50 per share. If they again had a 20x PE they would be a $110 company you made 10%. However in this example you are paying a P/E ratio TWICE the growth rate.
His point was if you can find a stock that has a P/E ratio lower then or equal to the growth rate of the company you may have an undervalued stock. IE the PE is 10x and growth rate is 20% (lots of other factors go into it just one idea to look at) And if you have a stock that P/E is 2x the growth rate you have an overvalued stock. IE P/E is 20x and growth rate is 10%.
That is an interesting and I think wise way to look at things. (Again not the only thing to look at)
But what I would like to add is are you leaving ROOM FOR ERROR?
Are your estimates so high for the stock that even a little hiccup could drive down the stock price HUGE!
Are your estimates for a perfect 10Q no hiccups in inventory, or sales glitches, or bad sales because of XYZ. If your estimates are so HIGH then you may end up getting crushed. That is why I like to put a no higher than 15x PE on a stock. Even if the stock is in an industry where the average PE is 25x. I am giving it room to move to the downside if they have a bad quarter.
Any example of that, is someone asked me the other day to give my opinion on a certain stock. (I won't mention it to protect the innocent.) The company had good price to sales and price to book ratio. The company however had a 16x PE right now and are only growing at 6-7% a year. (It also had some other factors I didn't like) But you are basically paying this high premium for a stock to perform perfectly. One bad move by the company and that growth rate becomes 0% or maybe on the negative growth.
Saying XYZ stock which is a small cap stock deserves the same PE ratio of Microsoft is stupid. And an easy way to lose money.
I thought I had left room for error in the 3 stocks I owned last week. But they have to be reevaluated each time news comes out from the company.
On HIHO I had no idea they would post negative earnings.
My estimates were obviously way to high. The company has traded well since the news though only down about .30 or about 7%. Although I didn't think I left room for that big of error the market has held nicely on that stock. Maybe due to the low float and the fact of a dividend is coming shortly. But I still have to reevaluate after news. And the figures that I come up with just don't bare out the current levels or much higher levels. That doesn't mean it won't go up. It just means I am no longer comfortable with the stock at the prices it is commanding.
On CAGC the earnings and sales estimates are still all in line. The problem is the issuing of 5.5 million more shares. Which drops EPS down about .11 per share. The company is growing at a fast clip and they can use the money they get from the private placement well I am sure. The downside still isn't that great on the stock unless of course they don't earn what they say they are. But if they do earn .33 EPS for the year at a 10x PE its still a $3.30 stock. So I don't see a lot of downside in the stock like dropping to $2 or something but the upside is much slower at least for what I am looking for. That is a stock I would consider jumping into though if I felt more comfortable again with it. I just got hammered with 2 shocking news hits out of 3 stocks I owned on friday I felt I better dump it before it got out of control.
Have I left enough room for DFNS????
I don't know I will probably call DFNS later this week and get some information on things are going etc.. Unless they never get rid of their backlog or can't make a profit on their backlog I dont see a lot of downside to the stock. I do think this 2nd quarter will tell the story. If they come out with no earnings or negative earnings or even only .01 EPS for the quarter the stock may get hammered. I am excepting a very good quarter but are my estimates too high am I leaving room for error?
We go over all the statistics we look for when finding a stock for the stockdoubling project in our Videos at www.BeforeItMoves.com
FYI today July 3rd the stock market will close early today (1pm I believe) and will be closed on July 4th.
Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Are you leaving enough room for error in your stocks? If your stock misses an estimate on their quarter do you have it covered? Or are your estimates so high that any misstep could cost you BIG.
I was flipping the channels the other day and landed on CNBC the Mad Money show (Jim Cramer) he was talking about undervalued stocks etc.. (I DO NOT FOLLOW JIM CRAMER IN GENERAL THIS WAS JUST AN INTERESTING THOUGHT SO I THOUGHT I WOULD PASS IT ON.)
One of the ways he likes to look at that is by comparing the P/E ratio with the growth rate. (The following is NOT word for word of what he said but the general idea of it.)
For example lets say the company is a $10 stock and has $1 in earnings. Or a Price to earnings(P/E) ratio of 10. (P/E is price of the stock divided by the earnings of the stock) The company is growing at 20% a year. So in theory if the company grows at 20% for the coming year they would earn $1.20 per share. If they again had a 10x P/E ratio that would now be a $12 stock. So you would have made 20% on your money.
Now lets say we have a different stock this stock is trading $100 a share. It has earnings of $5 a share. So it has a P/E ratio of 20x. Now lets say this company is only growing at a 10% rate. So next year in theory they would earn $5.50 per share. If they again had a 20x PE they would be a $110 company you made 10%. However in this example you are paying a P/E ratio TWICE the growth rate.
His point was if you can find a stock that has a P/E ratio lower then or equal to the growth rate of the company you may have an undervalued stock. IE the PE is 10x and growth rate is 20% (lots of other factors go into it just one idea to look at) And if you have a stock that P/E is 2x the growth rate you have an overvalued stock. IE P/E is 20x and growth rate is 10%.
That is an interesting and I think wise way to look at things. (Again not the only thing to look at)
But what I would like to add is are you leaving ROOM FOR ERROR?
Are your estimates so high for the stock that even a little hiccup could drive down the stock price HUGE!
Are your estimates for a perfect 10Q no hiccups in inventory, or sales glitches, or bad sales because of XYZ. If your estimates are so HIGH then you may end up getting crushed. That is why I like to put a no higher than 15x PE on a stock. Even if the stock is in an industry where the average PE is 25x. I am giving it room to move to the downside if they have a bad quarter.
Any example of that, is someone asked me the other day to give my opinion on a certain stock. (I won't mention it to protect the innocent.) The company had good price to sales and price to book ratio. The company however had a 16x PE right now and are only growing at 6-7% a year. (It also had some other factors I didn't like) But you are basically paying this high premium for a stock to perform perfectly. One bad move by the company and that growth rate becomes 0% or maybe on the negative growth.
Saying XYZ stock which is a small cap stock deserves the same PE ratio of Microsoft is stupid. And an easy way to lose money.
I thought I had left room for error in the 3 stocks I owned last week. But they have to be reevaluated each time news comes out from the company.
On HIHO I had no idea they would post negative earnings.
My estimates were obviously way to high. The company has traded well since the news though only down about .30 or about 7%. Although I didn't think I left room for that big of error the market has held nicely on that stock. Maybe due to the low float and the fact of a dividend is coming shortly. But I still have to reevaluate after news. And the figures that I come up with just don't bare out the current levels or much higher levels. That doesn't mean it won't go up. It just means I am no longer comfortable with the stock at the prices it is commanding.
On CAGC the earnings and sales estimates are still all in line. The problem is the issuing of 5.5 million more shares. Which drops EPS down about .11 per share. The company is growing at a fast clip and they can use the money they get from the private placement well I am sure. The downside still isn't that great on the stock unless of course they don't earn what they say they are. But if they do earn .33 EPS for the year at a 10x PE its still a $3.30 stock. So I don't see a lot of downside in the stock like dropping to $2 or something but the upside is much slower at least for what I am looking for. That is a stock I would consider jumping into though if I felt more comfortable again with it. I just got hammered with 2 shocking news hits out of 3 stocks I owned on friday I felt I better dump it before it got out of control.
Have I left enough room for DFNS????
I don't know I will probably call DFNS later this week and get some information on things are going etc.. Unless they never get rid of their backlog or can't make a profit on their backlog I dont see a lot of downside to the stock. I do think this 2nd quarter will tell the story. If they come out with no earnings or negative earnings or even only .01 EPS for the quarter the stock may get hammered. I am excepting a very good quarter but are my estimates too high am I leaving room for error?
We go over all the statistics we look for when finding a stock for the stockdoubling project in our Videos at www.BeforeItMoves.com
FYI today July 3rd the stock market will close early today (1pm I believe) and will be closed on July 4th.
Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Monday, July 2, 2007
CAGC out at $3.20
I sold my CAGC this morning at $3.20. (Lost .01 per share)
It is up from APRIL 9TH coverage ($2.90)
I still think it is a solid stock for the long term and if it can get 15x PE its still a $5 stock this year.
I still felt for the bigger move ($7) or so would have to wait a little longer than I wanted to. I don't think it will run huge any time soon anyway so If I decide its ok to come back in maybe I will jump back in.
But at this point all I own is DFNS. (I have NOT purchased additional shares from proceeds of HIHO and CAGC at this time. Though I may in the future.)
I am in a jittery after those 2 stocks disappointed. (Though their sell offs haven't been too dramatic) I will probably contact DFNS this week just too see if I can get some information out of them to calm me down a bit LOL.
I think HIHO and CAGC are still solid but the news they have put out changes their outlooks at least for me from weeks and months to year or years before valuations are worthy of a stock price I would like to see.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
It is up from APRIL 9TH coverage ($2.90)
I still think it is a solid stock for the long term and if it can get 15x PE its still a $5 stock this year.
I still felt for the bigger move ($7) or so would have to wait a little longer than I wanted to. I don't think it will run huge any time soon anyway so If I decide its ok to come back in maybe I will jump back in.
But at this point all I own is DFNS. (I have NOT purchased additional shares from proceeds of HIHO and CAGC at this time. Though I may in the future.)
I am in a jittery after those 2 stocks disappointed. (Though their sell offs haven't been too dramatic) I will probably contact DFNS this week just too see if I can get some information out of them to calm me down a bit LOL.
I think HIHO and CAGC are still solid but the news they have put out changes their outlooks at least for me from weeks and months to year or years before valuations are worthy of a stock price I would like to see.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
Important HIHO and CAGC News
Good Monday
I got smacked around by the market on Friday.
Both HIHO and CAGC both had news come out on friday. And both were bad news.
HIHO earned .16 for the year. And really about .10 if you take out the currency exchange. Even if they grow by 30% based on the actual profits (NOT currency exchange as that will swing big from year to year) They would only make around .13 next year based on that. I think they could do better than that but the currency exchange thing helped a lot this year. (It hurt a lot last year)
Even at .20 EPS for the year its still almost a $4 stock. (I am SHOCKED the stock didn't get hammered on friday) At .20 EPS its a 20x PE for a $4 stock. Yes they pay a dividend and I would like to get the dividend but not willing to pay $4 for the stock. If it was in the low $3 that would be a different story I guess. But I wouldn't touch it at this point.
CAGC came out with news of a private placement. Issued 5.5 million more shares giving them $15 million of capital to expand etc.. The problem is that basically takes their shares outstanding from 19 million to 25 million. And if they earn $8.5 million for the year instead of earning .45 EPS they will only earn .34 EPS. So they are knocking down .11 EPS off the stock. Or on a 10x PE they are knocking off $1.10 potential off the stock.
So at a 10x PE it would have been a $4.50 stock. Now at a 10x PE its a $3.40 stock. Which is just below where we are at right now. Yes it is great for the longer term. Though I had hoped to see some be gains in it due to it being at a discounted price.
My entry price is $3.21 on CAGC. I may bail on the stock this morning if I get a good price on it.
I'll keep you posted on the blog.
Again this has nothing to do with the StockDoubling.com project and I still ONLY own DFNS for that project.
Have a good day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
I got smacked around by the market on Friday.
Both HIHO and CAGC both had news come out on friday. And both were bad news.
HIHO earned .16 for the year. And really about .10 if you take out the currency exchange. Even if they grow by 30% based on the actual profits (NOT currency exchange as that will swing big from year to year) They would only make around .13 next year based on that. I think they could do better than that but the currency exchange thing helped a lot this year. (It hurt a lot last year)
Even at .20 EPS for the year its still almost a $4 stock. (I am SHOCKED the stock didn't get hammered on friday) At .20 EPS its a 20x PE for a $4 stock. Yes they pay a dividend and I would like to get the dividend but not willing to pay $4 for the stock. If it was in the low $3 that would be a different story I guess. But I wouldn't touch it at this point.
CAGC came out with news of a private placement. Issued 5.5 million more shares giving them $15 million of capital to expand etc.. The problem is that basically takes their shares outstanding from 19 million to 25 million. And if they earn $8.5 million for the year instead of earning .45 EPS they will only earn .34 EPS. So they are knocking down .11 EPS off the stock. Or on a 10x PE they are knocking off $1.10 potential off the stock.
So at a 10x PE it would have been a $4.50 stock. Now at a 10x PE its a $3.40 stock. Which is just below where we are at right now. Yes it is great for the longer term. Though I had hoped to see some be gains in it due to it being at a discounted price.
My entry price is $3.21 on CAGC. I may bail on the stock this morning if I get a good price on it.
I'll keep you posted on the blog.
Again this has nothing to do with the StockDoubling.com project and I still ONLY own DFNS for that project.
Have a good day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net
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