Monday, July 23, 2007

DFNS NEWS update and earnings?

Friday had some great news with DFNS.

They announced a new order for $1.5 million for Israel Defense. Which will be delivered in the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter of this year.

This is on top of the $4 million in orders the military ordered back in Jan. and $2.2 million ordered in Feb.

Based on the #'s that I see on the press releases they have the following...

$4 million
$2.2 million (with possible 20% over that or additional $400k)
$1.5 million
$7.7 million in Israel Defense Ministry orders (That have been released via a press release, their could be smaller orders that weren't released I don't know.)

The $4 million order was suppose to be delivered by April according to the Jan. press release.
The $2.2 million order was suppose to be delivered by July according to the Feb press release.
The $1.5 million order is suppose to be delivered in the 3rd and 4th quarter (July-Dec) according to Friday's release.

So far we only have the #'s for Q1 and looking over those #'s the Local military which I assume is the Israel Defense ministry the revenue was only $1.5 million!!
They were suppose to have $6.2-$6.6 million delivered by July. Now the Israel Defense ministry may push that back etc.. But if they are continuing to order I would think they are needing more and more. Which leads me to believe that a good chunk of it was delivered in Q2.

I don't think the Local Military will be $5 million for the quarter in revenue. But I could see it being $3 million million. WHICH WOULD BE HUGE!!

The local military last quarter was the most profitable with the highest margins around 21% according to my calucations. If DFNS did $3 million for Q2 in just Local military that would mean roughly $650,000 in pretax income. Which is like .02 EPS by itself!

Local civilian tends to run in the $700-$900K per quarter range and has a small profit.
Based on Feb and April press releases they had the bus orders which were to be delivered in April and June which is Q2 + military export totaling $1.3 million.

On top of that they have some backlog to run through.

These are all guesses of course on my part but I could forsee a $5.5-$6.5 million Q2 revenue with a range on EPS of .01-.03 EPS. (They only did $1.8 million in revenue Q2 last year.)

Of course they could push stuff back to the Q3 which would be disappointing but possible.

With such a small company a $1 million can be a HUGE difference either way.

I think if the company delivered the products as the contracts orginally stated and the company turned a decent profit I think we will be looking at a nice quarter. I am looking for a big jump in revenues from Q1. Hopefully we will see it.

DFNS had its 2nd largest volume day on Friday which is good to see. It was up a good amount and closed up as well. (The largest volume day so far this year was Q1 release day)

August 15th is the big day.

Thank you for all those who emailed me about the new project I am thinking about. (You can find it on Friday's Blog) The response was positive and I will probably move towards that in the coming weeks.

Have a great day.
Steve Hoven

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