I have a New Poll PLEASE VOTE

I have gotten emails from people asking my thoughts on DFNS etc.. Well my thoughts are posted on this blog and I also post them on Ragingbull.com on the DFNS board.

Some people have mentioned they just found out about Stockdoubling and would like to get involved with the next pick. Well the next pick could be a good long while from now.

And since I normally find 4 OTHER stocks that are in the running to maybe us those in a different project. (I will still have the monthly project down the road as well)

But this 2nd project would be just like StockDoubling.com Project take $500 and try and double it once a year etc.. I wouldn't suggest anyone selling out of DFNS to get into the new project it would be a totally seperate project with different funds etc.. At least that is what I would suggest.

You can see the poll to the left and make your decisions and I will determine whether its worth my time to go ahead and do another TWIN project to stockdoubling.com

Let me know by voting.

Merry Christmas
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS WHAT NOW?

DFNS where do we go from here?

DFNS continues to be down in the upper.20's to low .30's. I have emailed the company NUMEROUS times since Nov. 26th and have yet to hear anything from them. I had some questions I wanted addressed by the company.

One of which was why they didn't put out a press release after the Q3 report. It wasn't as good of report as Q2 (and I didn't expect it to be) but it was their 2nd best quarter they had in YEARS! So why they didn't put out a statement saying they were happy with sales etc... Was puzzling to me. The only reason I could come up with is they didn't want to put it out because future sales don't look that promising. I don't know if that is the case or not but they have been a reason for the huge selloff.

I love to see a company that insiders own a good portion of the stock. In DFNS case though the CEO owns over 60% of the stock which means whatever he says goes anyway. Doesn't matter what the shareholders think as he controls it. Which is fine as he has a lot invested but what tends to happen is lack of effort on the company side to give QUALITY information to the general public.

I haven't sold a single share and WON'T until we hit the mid .40's again AT LEAST!! (Not sure if I would then but that would probably be the minimum I would sell some at.) I am 100% in on DFNS it is the only stock I own and don't have any $$$ in my brokerage account to buy anything else. So if I did sell any shares it would be my excess shares NOT my stockdoubling project shares. The only way I would sell some before the mid .40's would be if news came out that sales have dried up or something else major happened.

The bottom-line though is this stock can be bought many times during the week for as little as .30. It is still a company that has a BOOK VALUE (The breakup value of the company) of .24. Also market value of the company when trading at .30 is LESS then $9 million. (That is how much it would cost to buy ALL the shares at .30) Which for a company that should do $17 million in revenue for the year is A STEAL!!

So the #'s are there as far as undervalued I would say that. It just depends is the underlying business still viable going forward. Was it a 1 year fluke in business or is this something that the company can sustain and build on going forward? And that is a question I don't have an answer to and the company isn't giving out any hints either. As I said before I could wait until the end of October 2008 for the stock to hit .50 and still be on pace for the stockdoubling project. I would prefer not to wait that long of course but I do have time to wait. When things look this undervalued I just am not going to sell any shares.

An interesting bit of information though which you can study yourself if you so desire.... Looking at a 5 year chart of DFNS. (go to www.bigcharts.com and use the weekly charts) Around this time of the year should you have purchased DFNS around the mid/late December each year and held it for a couple weeks in the new year you would have made quite a nice return each time. What tends to happen especially with a lot of small cap stocks is people sell their losing stocks before the end of the year to get the tax write off. Then a flood of people come into to "cheap" or "value" stocks to start the year. And DFNS has value I think (assuming the business remains strong.) So we could see a bounce in it if history repeats itself on that. Time will tell on what happens.

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS and the StockDoubling Project

Hello StockDoubling members,

I haven't had an update in a while. Not much is new with DFNS it is WAY undervalued I believe at these prices the bid is .30 (what you can sell it for) ask is .36 (what you buy it for)

Based on .31 which was its last traded price and 29 million shares outstanding it has a market cap of $9 million. (That is the worth supposedly of the company.)

The company will do $17-18 million for the year in revenue more than likely so its value is 1/2 its sales. It also already has .042 in EPS for the year and may or may not earn more in Q4.

We could have some tax selloff before the end of the year yet on DFNS. But I think after the New year if not before we will see a move higher and people look for value and this has a ton of value.

It had a big 300k+ volume day last week but nothing really happened with it. Not sure what to think. They did also make an announcement about a new order for a product but the order was only for 250k so it isn't that big of deal. The only issue that I can foresee is that sales have just dried up. During their slow times though over the last few years they were still able to do $10 million or so a year in revenue which would still put our Price to Sales ratio at less then 1. So unless this stock simply implodes I just don't see it being down at these levels for too long.

Now on to the StockDoubling project itself......

I started the project back on October 31st 2005. The goal is to get 1 stock to double each year and after 11 years I would have $1 million after starting with just $500. Well we started off with a bang and were doubling stocks in 4 months time. Well obviously this year hasn't been good to us but we are still on track.

Starting with $500 on October 31st 2005
$1000 would be needed by October 31st 2006 (Which we had)
$2000 would be needed by October 31st 2007 (Which we had)
$4000 would be needed by October 31st 2008 (We actually put $4k into DFNS)

Anyway my point is we are still 10-11 months from the October 31st 2008 time frame when we should have $4,000. Currently I have 8000 DFNS shares at .30 so that is $2400. If DFNS came back up to .50 the $4,000 would be there.

So we just have to take a step back and look at the goals for the long term. Again this project is to see if it can get done, and hopefully it can but it wasn't a project to double stocks every 4 months it was to find 1 stock a YEAR.

With the wildness of the markets lately their are always good opportunities to look at. Right now for me I still feel DFNS is very undervalued. And unless something big happens one way or another I will be staying in it. Whether I try and ride it to $1 is another story but I don't foresee me selling it at these prices. If something changes with the company I will have to reevaluate but at this time I see a LOT more upside then downside.

Have a Great Trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS HAS GOOD VALUE

Hello StockDoubling members,

I wanted to write today about why I still like DFNS.

If you take a step back and assume today was the first day you heard of DFNS here is what you have.


The company has roughly 29 million shares. And is asking .39 (how much you could buy the stock for right now) So 29 million x .39 = $11.3 million market cap for the company.

The company has already done $14.2 million in sales for the 9 months. And say they finish the year with a TOTAL of $17 million in revenue. Normally I look for stocks that are less than 2 Price to sales ratio. Well if you take $11.3 million market cap divided by $17 million in sales you could up with a .66 Price to sales ratio. Well below even 1!
A 2x P/S ratio would mean the marketcap is $34 million. Which is a triple from the current stock price levels!

Next looking at Book value the company has a book value of about .24 per share. The stock trading at .39 so the price to book is 1.6x Price to book. Yes before it was trading higher than 2x Price to book but I will talk about the reasons in the next section.

Next I look at growth is the company growing quarterly and yearly growth? The answer is a big YES!!
The company did $10.6 million in revenue last year. This year they should do around $17 million! That is a 60% increase in revenues year over year. Last year they lost roughly .01 per share. This year so far they have earned .042 EPS and even with an OK quarter could make it .05 for the year.

This company has earnings. Based on the current earnings of .042 for the 9 months we are still trading under 10x PE for a company that is growing around 60% for the year! If they do .05 for the year that is around a 8x P/E ratio. Assuming growth continues (not at 60% a year but continues to grow strong) a 12x PE isn't unreasonable. And that being said we should be at MINIMUM .50 right now.

That is why I wouldn't sell a share at these prices. If I had never heard of DFNS until today I would seriously buy this stock for the stock doubling project. Again unless sales totally dry up I don't see a ton of downside to this stock. Book value is still .24 and revenue is still $14 million even if they didn't have 1 more dollar of revenue for the year.

The 3rd quarter was the 2nd highest quarter they have had in a long time.

I will hopefully contact the company this week and ask a few questions and get back to you with the answers etc..

Again unless the company comes out with news that sales are drying up I see no reason why this stock isn't in the mid/high .40's by the end of the year which is a 15-25% return in that time.

I wish you the best in your trading.

Happy Thanksgiving if I don't talk to you before then.

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS CRUSHED!

I am NOT sellling 1 share at these prices! This is crazy!!

At .39 x 29 million shares = market cap of $11.3 million. They have already done $14.2 million in revenue for the 9 months and will probably be around $17 million for the year. That is .66 x Price to sales.

Book value is at .24 so you are only trading at 1.6x book value.

EPS is at .042 for the year so far. Which means you are trading at less than 10x PE. And if they added just .008 to the 4th quarter that would mean .05 for the year.

I look for DFNS to rebound and fill the gap it just created by the end of the year for sure but I would think quicker than that. I think a 20-25% move up in the next few weeks from these .39 prices is quite possible.

Of course if DFNS comes out and says sales will slow down and we have no new contracts down the pike things could change. But the downside at this point doesn't seem too much and the upside seems to be good.

If I wouldn't have bought all I could prior to the news release I would buy at these levels. The #'s don't add up for this not going up a bit.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

!remove

DFNS EARNINGS REVIEW!!

DFNS earnings are OUT!

UGH!! I was looking for $4.3 million revenue and .017 in EPS. I said the earnings keeping the expenses down was key.

Well they beat the revenue #'s they came in at $4.6 million revenue but got HAMMERED on the EPS only giving .006 (that is 6/10's of a penny)

So for the year they have $14 million in revenue and about .042 in EPS for the year. They won't do the .07 EPS that I was hoping for that is for sure.

They do have .04+ for the year so far in EPS. So if the stock sells off tomorrow I wouldn't expect it to be HUGE. Yes it could get into the .40's but I wouldn't think .30's would be in the mix. By no means do I think its a $1 stock at this point. But I don't think its a .30 stock either.

I may sell out of some of my EXTRA shares tomorrow though I doubt I will sell my stockdoubling shares. I may be in this stock for a good while yet. Next earnings release won't be until the end of MARCH 2008! So we have over 4 months to wait for the 10K report. Hopefully in the meantime they will have some positive news releases in the mean time.

I will now give some Positives and negatives from the report....

Negatives
-----------------
Backlog is down to $5 million down $2 million from the last quarter.
Local military may only account for $1 million this current Q4
Margins got hit in a BIG WAY!
No new information on additional orders.
May take some time to get some real returns from the stock.



Positives
---------------
Book value of .24. So a .48 stock is just 2x book still very reasonable
Revenue continues to grow. $14 million so far should do at least $17 million for year.
With a $17 million year .58 stock would mean 1 to 1 price to sales ratio.
$17 million in revenue would also mean roughly 60% growth over 2006
.042 EPS for the year. Not what I had hoped but a nice base to stop the stock from falling too far.
Local Military seems strong.



If the orders dry up this stock could go much lower. If they come out with comments they could see some growth next year etc.. Then we still have some good life in the stock. It is still a good valuation on a Price to sales, Price to Book and P/E ratio. So I don't see a ton of downside unless of course the sales dry up. I don't see a ton of upside though either unless they come out with news releases about new orders etc..

We will see how the stock reacts tomorrow.

I would think the company would come out with a news release on the Q3 report sometime tomorrow before the bell.

Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS EARNINGS TODAY???

Today the day for DFNS?

On Oct 5th on the blog I talked about DFNS needing to put out a release about a new order to get the momentum going ahead of the earnings release. Obviously that didn't happen.

Today is Nov. 14th I would think that the earnings release would be sometime today. Either before the market opens, during market opening, or as they tend to do after the market closes. The reason to do it after the market today is to still have 2 trading days for the week to trade the news. If they dumped it after tomorrow's close than all we would have left is Friday to trade. And I would assume that the quarter would be bad.

They have been late in the past as well but they tend to give revenue and earnings #'s in the late filing report. Hopefully we won't see that though.

I am looking for $4.3 million in revenue and .017 in EPS.

The stock price has fallen a bit to the low .50's. I picked up some more yesterday at .53. I have almost 19,000 shares of DFNS and it is my only holding. I may sell out of some of those shares depending on the quarterly report.

I highly doubt that I would sell out of my DFNS stockdoubling shares no matter where the DFNS stock goes (up or down) based on this quarters #'s. Unless they say they see a major slow down in growth coming even a fall into the low .40's or a little worse wouldn't scare me out probably. But I will keep you posted.

Those that aren't in DFNS. I think this offers good risk/reward at these levels. A person can basically buy the stock for .03 more than what I did 6 months ago. And there is a LOT more good news in the stocks in that 6 months. If another good quarter comes out I think this stock reaches .70+ sometime next week. If its bad news I think it could fall to the high .30's but would be a steal down there. (Assuming they aren't slowing growth in a major way which based on their comments doesn't seem to be the case.) I DON'T MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS!

I will update you when the earnings come out and my thoughts on it all.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS AT .53!!!

You can buy DFNS for .53 as of this writing!!

Too me that just seems like a good deal. I have bought more in my IRA last week at a bit higher prices but at these levels I am going to try and buy some more for my regular account at .53. (I just bought an additional 1500 shares. I know have over 17,000 shares 8000 of which are for the stockdoubling account.)

If they have a breakeven quarter this stock goes down to around .40 which is .13 down. I can't foresee them losing money but if they did I guess they would go down a little more than that.

Even if they only do .01 for the quarter that means they have roughly .045 EPS for the year. Assume they only do .01 for Q4 and that is .055 for the year. At 10x PE you have a .55 stock.

I think of course they will do much better then that I think the earnings could look in the area of .07 for the year. Which if they do its at least a .70 stock minimum. That is .17 higher then current prices.

Also DFNS at .40 and 29 million shares outstanding would put the market cap at roughly $11.6 million. Well unless the revenues just fell something tremendous they should do in the area of $17-18 million for the year. That would mean that they would be trading at roughly .68 price to sales ratio. It should be trading more like 1.5 or so. A .40 stock would mean less than 2x Price to book ratio. And like I said roughly 10x PE ratio for the year.

In other words unless the wheels just totally came off this stock I don't see a lot of downside potential in this stock. And any downside potential I would think would be quickly brought back up to these current levels based on sales growth.

The company hasn't said anything negative at all. Actually been positive with their comments they see sales growth continuing.

It stinks to be in a dead money stock. I wouldn't quite consider DFNS as such but it has been sitting in the .50-.60 range for a while now.

If DFNS did $17 million for the year and had a 1.5 price to sales ratio this stock would be at .88. At those prices it is roughly a 4x Price to book. And if they do earn in the .07 range for the year that roughly a 12-13x PE ratio for a company that grew 60% for the year. Those are reasonable evaluations especially if the grow continues even at 30% for next year.

No I don't think DFNS is a $1.50 stock by any means but I don't think its a .40 stock either.

Hopefully the company comes out with a press release on new orders before Q3. And hopefully Q3 is .015-.02 in earnings.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

www.Stockdoubling.org

DFNS a deal?

Hello StockDoublers,

Nothing has changed with DFNS.

I think these prices will be looked on in the future as steals should we have a good quarter. But we will see how that goes.

I would like to see a good quarter but also a news announcement that they have more orders coming in that is just as important.

I won't have a StockDoubling Monthly pick until after the DFNS news comes out and at that time will put the website up etc..

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

StockDoubling Pick Update

Sorry its been a while since last update.

I have been busy with Mike Huckabee campaign stuff, LazyTrading stuff, and the monthly project. Nothing really has changed from my recent comments on DFNS which you need to review.

I wanted to review this last StockDoubling pick of DFNS and the "other stocks" which were picked on April 9th. Which was just over 6 months ago.

You can review that days blog by clicking the link below to read my thoughts on each stock at that time etc..

http://stockdoubling.blogspot.com/2007/04/dfns-5th-pick-for-stockdoublingcom.html


The prices next to the stock are the April 9th prices. Only DFNS did I enter at that time so that is actual entry. The rest are based on the previous days close

DFNS .50 Since then the High has been .70 (Up as much as 40%) and the low has been .46 (Down as much as 8%). Currently the stock is the mid to upper .50's. You can read more about DFNS in recent posts.

GLDS .275 The symbol on this stock changed to AIRI. Since that time the stock has hit a high of .42 (Up as much as 52%) and a low of .22 (Down as much as 20%). Currently the stock is in the upper .20's.

AYSI .67 Since then the High has been .78 (up as much as 16%) and the low has been .30 (Down as much as 55%) Currently the stock is in the mid .60's. As we stated back on April 9th. It had run up quick so their was some risk for a correction. And it did correct but WAY too much. I bought in the upper .30's on the correction and sold a few weeks later in the mid .40's.

TSSW .76 Since then the high has been $2.09 (up as much as 175%) and the low has been .72 (Down as much as 5%). By far this has been the winner of the group. Being up the most and down the least. It took off only a few weeks after our post. Consolidated a bit a month or so ago and has taken off again. Currently the stock is around $2. This was a more than DOUBLE!!

CAGC $2.90 Since then the High has been $6.25 (up as much as 115%) and the low has been $2.05 (Down as much as 29%) Currently the stock is around $5.50. I bought when it came back down to the $2.40 level and road it up for a few weeks exiting in the $5's!! As I said back on April 9th. "As far as safety and longer term play I think this will probably be the one." And it has produced very well.


So out of the 5 stocks 2 of them have doubled within 6 months.
DFNS has been firmly up basically the whole time (though only around 10-20% for the most part.)
GLDS (AIRI) is also up but had to deal with some down times.
AYSI was a double from where I actually bought it in the mid .30's but not from the .67 levels.

Each of the stocks if you would have bought them back then you would currently be up nicely on all of them but AYSI (which is roughly break-even)

Again the project is to find 1 stock a year that doubles. Not in 3 months or 6 months but 1 year! We got spoiled on our early successes of GNBT, PSIT, AND HIHO. DFNS has taken longer then expect that is for sure. I still think we will do well with the stock though even if we have to endure a down faze to the .40's. I think if it did sell off it would have the same kind of reaction of a CAGC or AYSI has had where it gets in some bottom buyers and DFNS will again move up.

Unless the company really has a HORRIBLE Q3 DFNS should do at least $17.5 million for the year. With 29 million shares outstanding a 1 to 1 Price/sales ratio is .60 stock. It should also do at least .06 EPS for the year I would think closer to .07-.08. And it is growing so unless growth just dries up I think we have a winner. Say they do $17.5 million this year and grow 30% next year. (They grew 60-70% this year) That is roughly a $23 million in revenue and a .80 share price for 1 to 1 price to sales assuming the same 29 million shares. And if they earn .07 EPS this year and grow 30% next year that is .09 EPS for the year. At 12x PE that is $1.08 stock.
That of course is a long way away so a lot can still happen. But unless the wheels fall off sales or they can't handle expenses I still think DFNS will do well going forward.

Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS THOUGHTS

DFNS has a little bit of action today.

It hit a low of .55 today and has been in the .55-.56 range. Sometimes the ask bumps up to .58.

I bought 2,000 shares yesterday at .56 for my IRA and last week bought 1000 at .58 for my IRA.

Not much has changed from my post a few weeks ago.

I feel the company needs to come out with some positive news prior to their Q3 to get the thing moving. If no announcment comes I feel that a disappointment could be in store for Q3 #'s and could send the stock to the .40's.

If we do get an announcement I think we could be in the .60's prior to Q3 and move up nicely from there should we get a positive Q3 announcement.

The company should do $17-18 million in revenue for the year. It has roughly 29 million shares outstanding. So a .60 stock price would put the Price to sales at roughly 1. It has a book around .20 so Price to book is around 3. They have earned .035 roughly for the year so far I would think they could do .07-.08 for the year depending on how Q3 is. At .07 EPS for the year a .60 stock price would be 8.5x P/E. Growing at the rate that DFNS is growing at least this year I would think a 12x PE would be reasonable for them. Which would mean roughly .84 share price. I think if they could earn close to .10 EPS for next year and get a 12x PE you are talking over $1.20 share price. Which if they get the orders wouldn't take too much.

The question though is can they keep expenses under control? If they have a breakeven or losing quarter for Q3 this stock will probably go down to the low .40's if not lower. It has been a stalled stock as of late and a lot of people are feeling antsy so that is why we have drifted down as we have.

I still have a lot of faith in DFNS. I think their investor relations is lacking for sure and should offer more support that way. But that is one of the drawbacks as well when the CEO owns the majority of the shares.

This month will determine whether we see low .40's or mid .70's+.

Have a good day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

OUT OF CAGC AT $5.20 116% PROFIT

I just sold my CAGC shares at $5.20.

Bought at $2.40 on August 17th.

That is a 116% profit in less then 2 months. I will take that. If it continues to run GREAT. But I am fine with that kind of return.

TATTF having a nice day so far as well.

Right now I only own 2 stocks

DFNS for the stockdoubling project. (And some shares in my IRA)

And

TATTF for the monthly stockdoubling project.

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

CAGC WOW!!!

Just 2 days ago I wrote about CAGC and said I thought it was still a good investment over the next 6-18 months with a target of $5-$7. Well it took off yesterday and almost hit $5 already!

I got in on August 17th less than 2 months ago at $2.40 which is a double in price based on yesterdays close.

I will monitor it today if we get higher prices above $5 per share I may consider an exit at that point. That was my target anyway and if its going to give me those kind of profits that quickly then I will take it. I probably won't sell for less than $5 though. I still think it is solid going forward and will do well. So I am not going to give it away.

TATTF which is the stock for the monthly project also did well yesterday that is up roughly 16% from my purchase price just 2 weeks ago.

DFNS had a little bit more volume a few more 10,000 share blocks are trading which is good and now it is in the higher end of the .50's range. That is the only stock that I have held lately that hasn't done really well. So maybe its due for a nice move coming we will see.

I will let you know what I do with CAGC.

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Not available today

I will be gone today at the GOP debate in Dearborn MI.

So if DFNS takes off or tanks or CAGC or TATTF do anything you will be on your own today.

You can watch the debate on cnbc at 4pm though or MSNBC at 9pm. It will also be streamed live on the cnbc site at www.cnbc.com

Go Mike Huckabee Go.

It should be a lot of fun

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

CAGC moving today

CAGC is up nicely today 17% as of this writing.

I don't see any news release but the volume is strong. Maybe a buyer coming in and felt any price below X was a deal I don't know.

I will take it though its up almost 40% since the purchase back a month + ago at $2.40. Still at these levels is a good price if willing to hold 6-18 months. I think $5-7 is a real possiblity in that time.

DFNS still hanging around the .55-.60 levels. Not much will change unless holders get sick of holding and dump their shares. Or the company comes out with another order release which would send the stock above .60 again I think. Otherwise we will be caught in the .55-.60 range more than likely.

TATTF (a stock for the monthly project is up nicely over the last 2 weeks.)

Thank you for taking part in the poll. I will have additional ones in the future.

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

The stock market

China stocks have been hot lately.
Some of the stocks I have looked at in the past or owned in the past have really moved over the last couple of weeks. They can be very rewarding and very scary at the same time.

We have a new poll on our blog check it out and vote it is on the left hand side.

DFNS is asking .56 right now. Which is tempting but I think could come down a few more cents. If it does I will probably buy some more for my IRA.

The next month will be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR THE STOCK.

I think we need to see some kind of good news IE a new order BEFORE the Q3 earnings.
That will get the momentum going and assuming Q3 is strong we can spring up to the .70's-.80+.

If we don't get any news I think its going to be tough for a HUGE move up after Q3. I would also be cautious about what Q3 will say. This is a company that is based on new orders coming in. And although they have said demand is strong it can dry up in a hurry for numerous reasons.
So if their isn't an announcement about a new order by NOV 9TH. I would worried about the prospects of this stock. I don't think the downside is a ton unless of course they come out with a horrible Q3. IE losing money etc.. But I don't think the upside is around the corner either if they can't close some additional orders.

If you haven't checked out the monthly stock picks you really need to they have been on FIRE. Our current pick is up roughly 8% in just over a week. (TATTF)

http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/

Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Update on a few stocks etc...

Happy Monday Morning,


1. AYSI has moved up a bunch today. We got out of the stock for a nice profit a couple of weeks ago at .44. (bought at .37) it hit a high of .69 today! If you stayed in that stock CONGRATS! A lot of volume with that stock not something I am interested in right now but a nice recovery from prices in the mid .30's.

2. DFNS just closed their 3rd quarter yesterday so we have to wait 45 days to hear what their 3rd quarter results will be. I would hope between now and then though we would see some announcements for additional orders etc.. We are still in profit with the stock so we have some wiggle room. But would hope for some prices in the low-mid .60's before the announcement I don't know if we will get their though without news.

3. CAGC also just closed their 3rd quarter yesterday. This will be a VERY important quarter for them. They would need to see some very good #'s in order for their estimates to hold true. I think after their 3rd quarter announcement (Nov. 15th) you will see this stock close to $4 or below $2. If they are bad I think people will just bail and move on. If its good they will jump on board. I am looking more for a 6-18 month investment so I will take the bumps in the road plus I have a good fill at $2.40 per share.

4. If you are interested in Forex Trading. I have my Forex trading software available for the next 2 weeks.
It can be found at www.LazyTrading.com It has a 8 week money back guarantee and 90 day Instant messenger support with me. Check it out if you are interested in forex trading.

Have a good trading day,

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

BeforeItMoves.com and TATTF

Hello,
I wanted to let you know of a few things.

1. The stock videos I offer today is the last day to purchase the video course. It is how I find the stocks I pick for the StockDoubling projects. Sometime on Saturday morning I will remove the opportunity to purchase the videos and I will take them off the market.

So if you are interested go to www.BeforeItMoves.com

Its just $47 and has a 8 week Money Back Guarantee!

2. You really need to check out the Monthly StockDoubling Picks at

http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/

I talk about TATTF today I think it is tremendously undervalued. Check it out if you are interested.

Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

New Pick on the Monthly project

If you are interested check out the Monthly StockDoubling Project at

http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/

We look for 10-30% gains over a 60 day period.

WE MADE OUR NEW TRADE TODAY. (TATTF) CHECK OUT THE BLOG FOR THE DETAILS.


Have a great day

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Please check out our blog

If you haven't checked out the Monthly StockDoubling Project blog yet you really need to.

http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/

Just yesterday we talked about 2 stocks and their potential.

One is up about 25% since that post.

The other one is up 50% TODAY alone!!! It hit almost $8 today and I bought it just a few weeks ago at $3.89!!!

On that blog you will find a sign up box to get email updates on that project. Make sure you join if that is something you are interested in.

CAGC moved up nicely today back to $3 per share! You could have been bought yesterday around $2.40!!

DFNS is the same holding in the mid/upper .50's on lower volume and I don't see that changing until News comes out. Sunday September 30th is the last day of their Q3. So we would see their 10Q within 45 days of that date. I was hoping to hear some news before the end of the month on new orders which could impact Q4 but their hasn't been anything yet.

Make sure if you are serious about trading and want me to show you how I find my stocks to trade. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE check out the

www.BeforeItMoves.com

Site where via video I show you step by step how I do my research. After Friday those videos go off the market!

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

New baby is here!

My wife gave birth to a 9 lb baby boy this morning.

I am writing this from our hospital room.

Mother and baby are doing great. Elijah is his name FYI.

I will be out of commission dealing with family things until Monday.

So you are on your own with trading.

Nothing has changed with my DFNS and CAGC positions I am still in them until further notice.

Have a good night
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

BeforeItMoves.com LAST CHANCE!!

I have decided to remove the http://www.beforeitmoves.com/ videos from the net.

As of September 28th 2007 they will no longer be available for purchase EVER AGAIN.

I have also lowered the price to $47 so anyone that wants to get the videos and learn how I find the stocks I purchase now is the time. (Those that purchased the package will continue to be able to access the videos past that date.)

The time WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.

And we still do have an 8 week money back guarantee on the product.

In the videos I show you step by step how I find the stocks I use for the StockDoubling project. Even if you don't have the desire to learn it now you may want to consider purchasing it for future use. As I said it will NEVER BE SOLD AGAIN AFTER SEPTEMBER 28TH.

http://www.beforeitmoves.com/ to check it out.



Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

2 week FREE trial to Trading Site

FREE Trial time is running out

If you haven't heard, the support team at MarketClub has opened the doors to their investment education service for Alley Cat news members at no cost!

They contacted me and said "Steve we have a free 2 week trial we want your members to take advantage of before it's too late".

Naturally, I wanted to pass it on to you! So if you haven't already taken your free 2 week trial , do so here with my compliments:

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Just to let you know, this offer expires September 20th, so you have 3 days to get your free trial and education in.

Happy Trading
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Sold AYSI, Update on CAGC and DFNS

Happy Friday,

I sold my AYSI shares (1500) in my IRA today at .44.

I bought them at .37 on September 4th. (You can read the blog on that date for more info on it etc..)

10 days and it gave me 15%+ after commissions I will take that. Nothing has really changed on the stock I still think the same things as I did back on September 4th. But if I can get that good of return that quickly I will take it.

If it falls back down to the mid/upper .30's I will consider getting in again but at this point I will just take my profits.

So as of now I just own CAGC and DFNS in my IRA. (In at $2.40 on CAGC read the August 27th blog for details on that. I look at CAGC as more of a 6-18 month stock that is why I am still in that even though that is up 15% in only a couple weeks as well)

I also own shares of DFNS for the stockdoubling project account.

As far as DFNS goes it is trading between .55-.60 lately. I can forsee it drifting down a bit until Q3 news. Assuming of course they don't come out with a news release on new orders etc...
I don't see any reason for the stock to trade outside the range of .50-.60 until further news comes out. If bad news comes out it could go below .50. If its good we will be back above .60 again.

The stockdoubling project entry was at .50 so even at .55 its still up 10%. No that isn't a ton but it is better than nothing. And unless bad news comes out I don't see a lot of downside risk past that point.

Those that get tried of waiting tend to exit their stock at these prices and move on to the next "HOT" stock. That has been my problem in the past and I won't do that with the StockDoubling project. Unless something changes with DFNS as far as sales/earnings/shares outstanding/etc... I plan on holding my position until $1 or at least close to it.

If the company doesn't come out with any more news the next time we can expect news is around Nov. 14th for the Q3 news. Which is 2 months from now I would think the company will have something to say about something between now and then though.

If the stock continues to drift down to the low .50's I will consider picking up some additional shares for my IRA and personal account.

Have a good weekend
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Monthly StockDoubling picks a HIT!!

Our first pick for the monthly stockdoubling pick was a nice 15% winner in less than a week!!!

If you haven't checked out my new blog on that you need to.

http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/

The pick was NOEC and we bought it at $3.89 on Friday.
Today we sold it at $4.50 for a 15% gain!

Not sure when I will have my next pick but that one was a winner already!

have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

2nd child due soon

My wife and I are due to have our 2nd child within a week Lord willing. (Well I guess my wife is actually having the baby. :> )

So if I don't post on my blogs for a while you may know that I am out for a while doing the family thing for a bit. So if my stocks spike and I don't report on it just hold tight I will get to it when I can.

If you would like to donate to help pay the medical costs of the child there is a button on the left side of this blog. You can donate via Paypal or credit card (thru Paypal) I would greatly appreciate it. So if you have made some money from the StockDoubling project please feel free to give. Even if you haven't made money yet from the project but like the concept and idea I would love to hear from you.

If you missed Friday's post please read it. Those looking for some more trading need to check it out.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

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All my best,
Steve hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net


Today is potentially the first day of the rest of your trading career.

NEW PROJECT UPDATE

Sorry for the lack of posts.

I have been extremely busy lately. I am tutoring my Nephew in a couple of subjects this year. I am helping my brother out with his trucking company. I am trying to get the house and work in order before our 2nd child comes which could be any day from now. (Due date Sept 17th)

And since DFNS doesn't move much not much to report.

I have done some research on the New Project which is the monthly picks.

I will be picking 1-2 stocks a month for the new project that I think can move 10-30% over the next 30-60 days. I will put $500-700 into each pick and see what happens.

THIS IS NO WAY CHANGES THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT. THAT IS MY MAIN CONCERN AND I THINK IS A MUCH BETTER DEAL LONG TERM THAN DOING THESE MONTHLY PICKS. SO IF YOUR FUNDS ARE LIMITED PLEASE ONLY STICK WITH THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT.

This new project is for those who want to have some more action and already have some money in the StockDoubling project.

I will NOT be posting the picks for this new project on this blog. I do not want to confuse things at all. This is a totally seperate project. So you won't hear much about it on this blog.

Their will actually be another email list for those people as well.

You can find all the details on the New blog for that project at

http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/

IF YOU HAVE NO INTEREST IN THE NEW PROJECT NO PROBLEM NOTHING HAS CHANGED!!!

IF you do have an interest in that project though go to

http://stockdoublingmonthly.blogspot.com/

And follow the information their. I may even have my first pick later today September 7th for that.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

AYSI PURCHASE FOR MY IRA

I just bought 1500 shares of AYSI for my IRA at .37.

AYSI was one of my other stocks back in April and it has fallen hard since then.

It is a small company should do only about $7 million in revenue or so for the year. They are currently in the last month of their Q4. So won't hear annual news until around Christmas time.

The company is run by 2 guys in their 60's whom combined own about 73% of the outstanding shares. They haven't issued more shares in a good while. (17 million outstanding.)

I think it is a decent play at these levels if you are willing to wait 6 months or so. I don't see it jumping big but I don't see a huge drop from these levels either.

They have done .034 EPS for the first 9 months of the year. If they do another .011 for Q4 that would be .045 EPS for the year. At 10x PE its a .45 stock and they are growing in a big way. They are under 1 P/S for my projected #'s. About 2.5x book value.

Alot of volume today so a lot of turnover for today.

I didn't put a lot into it but I am willing to hold this one for a little while and see what happens.

I own 3 stocks in the IRA. AYSI, DFNS, CAGC each I think have little downside from my purchase price.

(CAGC has had a nice run the last week+) I plan on holding each of them for 6 months unless I see their prices get too overheated. (DFNS I WOULD LOVE TO SELL IN NOVEMBER JUST DEPENDS ON THEIR #'S.)

Have a good Tuesday
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

New Project I need your picks

The New stock project I will release after labor day in a nutshell is the following....


Find 1 maybe 2 stocks in a month that I think over the next 30-60 days can move up 10-30%. I will personally put in $400-$600 in each stock and sell them after it hits the target. (Which of course you will know about etc..)

The stock picks will be FREE no monthly charges at this time I just will have a donation page up if the picks are good you can donate etc.. We will see how it goes for the first couple of months that way and reevaluate it down the road.

I think the stock market is in for a wild ride (both up and down) over the next 2 months so it is an interesting time to start this project but I will give it a go.

If your funds are limited I would NOT take any money out of the stockdoubling project stock in order to do this. The StockDoubling project is for long term gains. And one of the reasons I started it is because I jumped in and out of stocks too much. And maybe its a mistake doing this new project only time will tell but I am not touching my stockdoubling project $$$ for this.

It is for fun and a way hopefully to make some money off the additional stocks that I like etc.. I will be doing the same process I use when finding StockDoubling picks so the #'s will be their it won't be based on HYPE etc..

Those of you whom have purchased the BeforeItMoves.com Stock Video/Ebook if you have suggestions on stocks to look at I would LOVE to hear them. I will take a look at them and maybe it will be the first pick for this new project.

I will have a new site and list and blog for this new project probably sometime next week. So that it isn't confusing those who just want to be on the StockDoubling project list.

So if (and ONLY IF) if you purchased the Beforeitmoves.com Stock Videos and if you have a stock please email me the stock and your thoughts on it.

Send to alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net with the topic "New Project Stock".

FYI I would also suggest not doing this project if you are going to be putting in less then $250 in a stock. Commissions will be roughly $14 by the time you buy and sell the stock. So if the gain is 10% or $25 on $250 its $11 profit. If you are doing less then $250 minimum I wouldn't suggest doing it, it may not be worth it after all the fees etc.. Each stock will be different some I will look for 10% some 30% etc..

Let me know your stocks and your thoughts on the new project.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

This is what I just did

I wanted to let you know of what I just did.


I sold 2450 from my regular scottrade account. But bought 2000 shares in my IRA of DFNS.

So now I have 8000 shares (StockDoubling account) of DFNS

I have 2000 DFNS in my IRA (which is actually going to be used for a trip in early 2008 if DFNS produces well by then.)

I also have 500 shares of CAGC in my IRA as well. Which as of right now will be left in for a while 6-12 months looking for a good return on that.

Anyway I wanted to let you know about the changes.

AGAIN NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT AT ALL.

I had to move the shares around a little bit though due to the new stock project that I will start after Labor day. (Which was discussed on this blog a month + ago)

I have a bunch of free trades available in my regular account so I needed to free up some money in that account in order to purchase the NEW stocks for this new stock project that I will discuss after Labor day.

AGAIN I STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE IN DFNS AND DO NOT PLAN ON SELLING MY STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT SHARES OF DFNS ANYTIME SOON.

I wanted to let you know for full disclosure reasons.

If you are still looking for passive $$$ and the goal of the $1 million after 11 stocks etc.. I still think the StockDoubling project is the way to go. That will NOT change even with this new project.

The new project is strictly for those people who would like to see some more action rather than waiting on the stockdoubling project. (They should still have money in the stockdoubling project.)

Anyway I will let you know more information on that when its available.

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS Q3 ESTIMATES

Here are my estimates for Q3 for DFNS. (which ends September 30th but will be announced November 15th or so.)

Just rough #'s there is no way to know for sure. I think the revenue #'s could be close but its so hard to say with the earnings due to so many different expenses that vary each quarter but here are my guesses etc...

ALL INFORMATION IS STRICTLY BASED ON PRESS RELEASES FROM THE COMPANY OR PAST QUARTERLY REPORTS.

Revenues
-----------------
Local Civilian $800,000 (this tends to be about there average each quarter.)
Export Civilian $300,000 (If you look at backlog in the Q2 which is on page 13 they list $600k for US I took 1/2 of that # to be filled in Q3.)
Local Military $1,500,000 (Page 12 of Q2 report says they expect to do $3 million for the rest of the year. I took 1/2 that # to be filled in Q3)
Export Military $1,700,000 (Press release August 8th $1.2 million order due in Q3. Also backlog page 13 of Q2 report had $1.4 million I took $500k of that for Q3)

So that is a total of $4.3 million in revenue.

Is that down from Q2? YES As I said before I felt that Q2 would be the largest revenue quarter for DFNS for that year. That is why I was a little disappointed with the big tax issues DFNS faced in Q2. Otherwise we could have seen .03 for the quarter and this stock would be in the .80 range right now instead of .60.

As far as earnings this is where it gets tricky but I figured I would put the #'s out anyway.

$800,000 revenue. Local Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 13% profit margin. I put a 10% margin on it for Q3 so $80,000 profits
$300,000 revenue. Export Civilian so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $45,000 profits.
$1,500,000 revenue. Local Military so far for the 6 months has been a 24% profit margin. I put a 20% margin on it for Q3 so $300,000 profits.
$1,700,000 revenue. Export Military so far for the 6 months has been a 20% profit margin. I put a 15% margin on it for Q3 so $255,000 profits.

So a total of $4.3 million in revenue and $680,000 in profits.

Take 25% out for taxes ($170,000)

Down to $510,000 in net profits. (OF COURSE THIS DOESN'T INCLUDE CURRENCY EXCHANGE ETC..)

Which is about .017 EPS for the quarter. (They did $3.9 million in Q1 revenue and $478,000 in net income)

Add that to the other profits and after Q3 stands at roughly .053 EPS for the year.

AGAIN JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE BUT UNLESS they keep a bunch back for Q4 I think the revenue #'s I presented here will be within 300-400k +/-.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

CAGC and DFNS update

Hello StockDoubling members,

Sorry I haven't updated I was out of town for a while with the funeral etc..

I did end up listening to the conference call on CAGC's 2nd quarter earnings. It is very interesting and if any of you have an interest in the stock it is something you would want to listen to. (It is around 45-50 minutes the first part and the Q&A are the most interesting. You could skip thru the financial readings etc..)

The stock fell like a rock after earnings and fell some more after the call. I did buy some at $2.40 a share (500 shares) and will hold for more longer term. (I bought for my IRA) I think it could be a double in price over the next 12-18 months for sure at these levels. Currently trading a little over 1x P/S for this year. Even with all the issues they should earn .20-.30 I would think for the year. Which would be in the less than 10x PE ratio.
It could go down further if a ticked off investor decides to dump it. But based on a longer term horizon I think they are in good shape going forward. Their may be some bumps in the road but I think its a solid play for those willing to hold a year+.

As far as DFNS, not much is new since last posting. Still in the high .50's or low .60's. The next 2 weeks or so hopefully we get a news release about more orders which would effect this year's earnings. Any news release about new orders will bump up the stock price a little bit at least.

We are in a good position where we are UP in the stock now just waiting for a bigger payoff. It's better then being down a little bit and having to wait for a turnaround. So we have some breathing room even if the stock was to go down a little bit.

later this week I will give my estimates for Q3 for DFNS.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

wild market

DFNS took a hit yesterday with the rest of the market.

It was a wild ride on the DOW.
And with the Fed cut rates has helped stocks a bit.

Its a good thing I didn't sell DFNS to buy CAGC. It got hammered after its earnings.

And was way down yesterday. A great buying opportunity for those willing to hold for a year+.

The company projects about .32 EPS this year based on the outstanding shares now. Not a ton of downside unless the market crashes or something. Their 2nd quarter was disappointing but I think it will still do quite well over a year+.

They had a conference call you can listen to via yahoo if you are interested in the stock check that out first. (I haven't listened to it yet.)

Due to the death of my wife grandmother (92). I will be traveling and attending the funeral etc.. so unless something MAJOR happens with DFNS I won't be having a blog on Monday or Tuesday of next week.

Have a great weekend.

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS press release is out

DFNS came out with their press release. They didn't say a whole lot expect this....

"Our enhanced sales and marketing efforts are already paying off, as we are receiving new orders from new significant customers world-wide. An example of this is our recently announced order for a body armor product from a new client from a CIS country."

So that is good news for future orders.

I would like to see some more order announcements between now and mid September to have any effect on this years revenue and earnings.

Anything after that probably won't effect this years earnings at all.

So unless we hear from the company about new orders etc... We won't hear from them again until mid November with the 3rd quarter earnings release.

The StockDoubling project is a 1 year project per stock. (though we have done it on average less then 4 months for the other ones) We are only 4 months into DFNS and we are still up over 20% right now. Not amazing but still what many people would LOVE over 1 year.

Assuming the company doesn't come out with bad news. (IE lost contracts, lawsuit, issuing more shares etc...) I wouldn't think the stock should see much lower than around .50 (which is our purchase point.)

Assuming the company doesn't come out with good news. (IE new orders, buyback, buying company etc..)
I wouldn't think the stock should see much higher than .70.

So I think we are range bound in the .50-.70 range for a while.
I think their is more possibility of GOOD news over the next 3 months then their is bad news though.

I still think its a good medium term buy if you can get it for .50. But short term its a little top heavy at .70

I am in and looking forward to good news coming from DFNS.

Have a good trading day.

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Sold some DFNS IRA shares

I sold my shares I had in my IRA for DFNS.

(4700 shares at .64)

I wanted to free up some cash for the monthly stock selections I will be having hopefully later this month or after Labor day.

I still feel confident in DFNS. However I don't know that it will run too high unless they get some big order announcements.

I also didn't like the fact I was 100% into DFNS and didn't have any cash on the sidelines or another stock. (I still own the 8000 shares of DFNS for the stockdoubling project and another 2450 shares for my personal account.)

We could be stuck in the .50-.70 range for a while unless we see some news from the company on new orders etc..
The revenue # was GREAT. The earnings # was OK at best. Without the big tax issues I think we would have seen .70+ today.

The company should come out with a Press release either today or tomorrow I would think just giving their thoughts and future comments which could bump the stock a little bit.

Next earnings release isn't until mid Nov. I will give projections on that in future blog postings etc...

Currently I am sitting tight on the stockdoubling project shares.

I don't see a reason why it should trade less than .50 but don't see a reason why it should trade more than .70+ right now either. UNLESS WE GET SOME MORE NEWS ON ORDERS FROM THE COMPANY!

Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS EARNINGS RELEASED

Earnings for DFNS were released after the bell on Tuesday August 14th.

Overall it is pretty good news.

Highlights.... Margins are UP and company says will stay up. Revenue is nice at $5.6 million Didn't issue many more shares still under 29 million. Backlog still around $7 million after big revenues. Lowlights.... Taxes got WHACKED!!! Almost 50% taxes due to interest and issues dating back to 2002. I would like to know for sure if that is totally handled now? That is almost .01 EPS right there because of that. Currency exchange got hit on that. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A very good report based on what I see. Not an out of the park report due to the tax issues but very good.

Earnings were just under .02 (They rounded up to .02)

One of the reasons I wanted .025+ on earnings is because I think this will be DFNS biggest quarter for the year.

I don't foresee $1 any time soon. But I don't think it will hit .30 either.

As far as where it will go today I don't really know. Without the tax issue I think it could have hit the high.70's. Because of it could go down a some or up a little.

I may or may not exit some of my excess shares that I have if I get a good price for them. I WILL NOT SELL MY STOCKDOUBLING SHARES AT THIS TIME.

I will post more on today's price action after the market opens.
DFNS should probably also have a press release come out as well sometime today.

Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Interesting trading for DFNS

Good morning,

DFNS traded 30,000+ shares in the last 5 minutes of trading yesterday. Which is about 1/2 of what they did ALL DAY.

Most of it was at .62 as well. Although in the grand scheme of things that isn't a lot of volume overall its a nice sign that possibly someone knows something (or think they know something) and want to get in before the announcement.

Historically DFNS has been late on their filings more often then on time. We will see if they are on time this time around. I would think they would be based on the momentum that is gaining in the stock. It would be silly to be late this time around as it may get a few investors edgy about it.

Last November they released their earnings on the 14th (a day early) that is the only time I see in the last year+ they have done that. So I would think tomorrow would be the day. When they announce (before or after the bell) I have no idea.

But I think today would be the last full day to get the stock before the earnings release.

Maybe their problem will be its so much money to count they need a couple of extra days. LOL I could live with that I guess.

I still expect a 15th earnings release and .02+ EPS.

I'll keep you posted on things once the earnings are out. It will take me an hour or so to review the release and write up something for the blog.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Interesting week ahead

It should be an interesting week for stocks.

Not only on the whole stock market with the credit and interest rate issues but also and more importantly for us the stocks that I have a watch on.

It has been just over 4 months since our 5th pick for the stockdoubling blog. (April 9th)

Out of the 5 stocks mentioned at that time, 1 has doubled (TSSW) 1 is down (AYSI) and the other 3 are up (DFNS, CAGC,AIRI)

DFNS, CAGC, and AIRI all have their quarterly #'s release this week so it should be interesting.

I only own DFNS at this time. But I would expect to see good #'s from the other 2 as well. (Though I haven't really followed AIRI that much)

I think all 3 of those stocks will have BIG revenue increases the key will be if they can turn that into EARNINGS.

I have no idea what the earnings will be on any of the stocks. It will depend on if they are issuing more shares, more expenses than first thought etc..

On DFNS specifically the company continues to announce new orders and the CEO continues to say that things look good for the future. I will take him at his word if they are turning that new revenue into EARNINGS we have a winner. If not then we will have to wait it out for a while.

DFNS needs to announce by August 15th so we will see what happens then.
Have a good trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

August 9th news for the blog

I considered selling some shares in DFNS today at .62 (only for my IRA)

Currently I only have DFNS in both my stockdoubling account and my IRA I have no other stocks and no other money in my accounts so like I said I am ALL IN on DFNS.

I had my order in but it didn't get filled I was planning on purchases some shares of CAGC. They should come out with their Q2 August 15th as well. And historically that is their biggest quarter. Even though they have added a bunch of shares I still look for a monster quarter. It wasn't going to be a long term hold just look for a pop back to the $3.50-$3.80 range.

And the only reason I was going to do it is so I could be a bit diversified although I feel DFNS will have a monster quarter I don't want to necessary be at its mercy if it doesn't.

I am not willing to sell lower though so if I find an exit at .62 on DFNS prior to earnings I may still take it.
ONLY FOR 2700 shares in my IRA. I OWN OVER 15,000 SHARES.

8000 shares for the STOCKDOUBLING project which WON'T be sold until $1 unless otherwise noted.
2450 shares for a personal account that if all turns out well will be a nice trip for my wife this winter.
4700 shares for my IRA (of which I would sell 2700 to buy 500 shares of CAGC)

Anyway I didn't get the price I wanted so I didn't sell. I don't have an order in at this time if I do see that price I will sell some shares. (assuming CAGC doesn't come out with earnings prior to that.)

Thought I would keep you posted.

Dealing with that much money all in one stock and being that it is all my money at my brokers right now with none on the sidelines thought I would diversify a bit.

If I had only a couple thousand or less I wouldn't worry about it.

AGAIN THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT SHARES. I DON'T PLAN ON SELLING THOSE SHARES UNTIL WE HIT $1 AT THIS POINT.

Talk to you friday
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS $1.2 million contract news

DFNS just came out with news on a new order.

$1.2 million new order should deliver in Q3.

here is some other notes about the news release.

"Joseph Postbinder, CEO of Defense Industries said: "We are extremely pleased with this initial order for this customer. An important factor in this customer's decision was our ability to deliver a competitive quality product in a prompt manner. In addition to enhancing our momentum in the Israeli military market, we have been focusing our efforts on expanding our international reach. Our sales and marketing efforts are already paying off, as we are receiving new orders from new significant customers world-wide. Moreover, as we noted at the beginning of the year, when we announced our first orders from the Israeli Defense Ministry, we are continuing to witness a shift in the Israeli Defense Ministry's attitude towards the importance of personal military protective equipment. We see the stream of orders from the Israeli Defense Ministry as an ongoing source of revenues for us and we anticipate significant growth opportunities in this domestic military market segment in the future."

You can view the entire news release at

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070808/20070808005693.html?.v=1

This $1.2 million and the $1.5 million news a couple weeks ago is great news. Based on past margins (doesn't mean they will get those margins on these orders.) these 2 orders mean $2.7 million in revenue and mean almost $500,000 of gross earnings. That is .01-.015 gross earnings per share. And in the .01 EPS which at a 10x PE is a .10 move in the stock.

6 more trading days until the Q2 release.

DFNS went from 0 volume to about 50,000 volume in 30 minutes on the news and is up a few cents.

Have a great trading day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Blowout or disappointing? No inbetween

The more I think and look at DFNS.

I think DFNS will either have a blowout quarter or a very disappointing quarter. I don't think it will be anywhere in between.

By a blowout quarter I mean $5+ million in revenue and .02+ in EPS.
By a disappoint quarter I mean $4 million or less in revenue and breakeven or lower EPS.

The more I look at the #'s I see myself either being dead on with the positive #'s. Or WAY OFF which would be the disappointing #'s. I also don't like the reaction the share price has been giving lately now under .60 again.

I think after the #'s we will either see .80's for share prices on a blowout quarter or .40's for a disappointing quarter.

Based on the comments from management I would tend to still say they will be blowout. However the key is can they turn the revenue into earnings!!

7 more trading days until we find out.

As far as the monthly stock selections (3 picks a month etc..) I still have plans for that but I don't want to unroll that until I have the time needed to provide all the picks etc.. Doing the research etc.. So it will probably be the tail end of August before that is going to be released.

have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS 1 YEAR CHART

Here is a 1 year chart of DFNS with some additional thoughts from me.

Just click the image for a bigger picture.

have a good day

Steve Hoven

alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

StockDoubling Weekend

Hello StockDoubling members,

8 more trading days for DFNS. Before the big news arrives. Hopefully its really good news for us.

Those that are now just following us check out the April 9th edition of the blog at www.StockDoubling.org for information on DFNS.

If the news is good picking it up at .59 should be good trade. If the news is bad it could be a little while before we see those prices again.

We will see how it works out. Just put yourself in front of good opportunities hopefully this is one of them.

Remember to check out the Beforeitmoves.com site today or early Saturday.

I will be raising the price on Saturday to $97. (Currently just $47)

It is almost 1 hour worth of videos on how I find stocks to buy for my own account and for the stockdoubling project. If you plan on trading for years to come it is a great tool to use to evaluate stocks.

www.BeforeItMoves.com

Have a great weekend.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Donations, Beforeitmoves, DFNS sign?

Thank you for all those who have donated to the stockdoubling.com project lately I appreciate it.

For those of you who don't know I have a donation link on the www.StockDoubling.com site. If you feel so inclined based on your results of trading to donate to site check out the bottom of the stockdoubling.com page.

We are a free site as of now and the donations help keep it that way.

Beforeitmoves.com Stock Video ebook price will be raised on Saturday at some point. I got the clearance from clickbank so it will be ready to move up to its new price on Saturday.

In the videos I show you exactly how I find stocks myself to trade.

Here is a portion of a testimonial I recently received about the videos...

"Good Morning Steve and Greetings from New ZealandI purchased the stock doubling video as soon as you put it on the market.Just wanted to say thanks. I am have a ball with it. I even run all thespam stock picks thru it for practice and can see them for what they are.The biggest benefit to me is the knowledge I am gaining by researching theshort list.Keep up the good work Steve you are doing a great job.Regards Rod M."

www.Beforeitmoves.com remember we offer an 8 week money back guarantee.

As far as DFNS I don't expect any big movement one way or the other before the Q2 earnings release (August 15th). I wouldn't think they would put out another press release prior to earnings. (If they had another release I would put it after Q2 earnings to get more momentum from the press release just my opinion.)

Watch a day or two prior to August 15th if their is good volume and an up or down direction in the stock at that time it may be an indication of where the stock is going. (someone may have gotten wind of news.)

Have a great Thursday.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

2 weeks from TODAY!

2 weeks to go before DFNS needs to report their Q2 #'s.

They can report early. In the past though they have been on the deadline day OR have been late.

When they are late though they tend to post in the report stating their late what the #'s are as far as revenue and earnings.

No idea if they will release the #'s after the bell or before the bell or what.

Here is a breakdown of what I think the stock could do based on different earnings #'s. A lot more goes into it. But I didn't have a lot to say in today's blog so I thought I would post this.

If they do .03+ EPS for the quarter I think the stock goes to .90-$1+
If they do .02+ EPS for the quarter I think the stock goes to the .70-.90 range.
If they do less then .02 EPS for the quarter I think the stock goes to the .50-.70 range.
If they do less then .01EPS for the quarter I think it goes to .40-.50's range.

I personally feel the .02+EPS for the quarter or .70-.90 range is doable. Which if I am right today's prices of .61 are a good deal. But I am hoping for .03EPS.

I don't think the risk is much less then .40 unless they come out with a losing quarter or something. Even at .40 that is about 20% down on the stock so we wouldn't be down too bad. Not the direction I want to go but still lots of room for error at least right now.

Have a great day.
10 more trading days until Q2!

Remember the Beforeitmoves.com stock videos price goes up later this week.
www.Beforeitmoves.com


Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

BeforeItMoves.com Price Increase

BeforeItMoves.com Stock Video Ebook price is jumping hopefully later this week.

Currently just $47 for the Stock Video package of how I find stocks to pick for the StockDoubling project. That price will more than double to its normal $97 price late this week. (Depending on clickbank approval)

So if you want to save $50 check out the site now.

You will still have an 8 week money back gurantee so if it isn't for you. Get a full refund.

I will be using these same videos for the other stock project that is coming online that will be available next month. I use this information to find the stocks that I feel have great potential for gains.

The information in the videos is what I use each and every time I am looking for stocks to buy myself.
Whether you are looking for longer term horizons or short term this can help.

Here is one example of a stock I covered back on May 24th 2006 (14 months ago) It was part of the "OTHER" stocks for stockdoubling.com
(The following was written for the May 24th stockdoubling email in which I covered PSIT.)

"TBSI $5.90 This company is making good money should earn well over $1 EPS this year. It is trading at 3-5X P/E and is just below book value. Has good value and could be a good double. Down side it is in a down trend on the chart and I don't know that it is finished going down yet. Oil prices effect this company. Maybe the safest pick of the bunch if you hold for a while. But could go under $5 as well."

If you look at a chart for TBSI you can see its amazing run its had. The downtrend wasn't quite over at the end of May it got down to the low $5's as thought but holding it for this 14 months would have returned a HUGE profit! It hit $39.99 just a week or so ago!!! I never owned the stock myself but putting myself in front of SOLID stocks to own gives a great opportunity to make good money.

Or even just as recent as April 9th 2007. One of our "OTHER" stocks was TSSW.

(This was posted on our blog on April 9th)

"TSSW .76 This stock has also moved up a bit in the last month or two. They are also a very small company having revenue of just over $3 million for 2006. But they made .06 EPS and grew about 100% last year. They seem to have things together and their websites (which is how they sell) are ever increasing in hits each month. They also have plans for other products that could increase revenues. Insiders own a good deal of this stock (35%) Issue is I am looking for a double in price or $1.50 can this stock get there. A $1.50 stock price would mean a $20 million marketcap for a company that may do $5 million this year in revenue. EPS does matter but where will they be even with .10 EPS for the year I would need a 15 x EPS. Which for the industry they are in is very low but it is also a small stock. I think it has potential to go higher I would like to see a bit lower price though first."

If you check a chart for TSSW you can see a move to OVER $1.90 a share. It has since fallen after a BIG MOVE UP. I would still think the stock should trade in the $1.00-$1.80 range the rest of the year. Again getting in front of a nice move can make you money. Thats why I called it BEFOREITMOVES!

Check out www.BeforeItMoves.com to get your Stock Video Ebook. It is how I trade!

Have a great trading day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Various news

Both HIHO and CAGC have had nice runs the last couple weeks. Looks like I got out of both in bad spots.

HIHO especially last week it rose to over $5 a share. And they haven't even announced a dividend. Doesn't look like they will either.

They have had other news releases which seem to be good for the longer term. Though I don't like it right now.

CAGC has moved as well.

Nothing new on DFNS I think it offers good risk/reward for the shorter term. Assuming they were able to turn their revenue into earnings.

If they lose money or earn very little the stock could fall to the .40's or low .50's on a quick reaction.

Based on what the company says though the revenues look strong.

FYI I never did hear back from DFNS investor relations on the questions that I had.

Have a good Monday.

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

What is DFNS downfall?

I don't like the fact of no momentum being seen in the DFNS stock price.

The big seller may be moving some of his shares but I can't imagine he can get out of all of them at these levels.

My only concerns I really have with DFNS is if they continue to have a big backlog and not moving that to revenue. (Would be disappointed with any revenue lower than $5 million this quarter.) The revenue is their for the taking just depends how they want to spread it out etc.. Things can get pushed back more and more.

And whether their margins hold up and are able to produce the profits needed. They will have a LOT more admin salaries going out due to the big revenue growths so that will hurt them a bit.

Assuming they aren't going to issue a bunch more shares to look at other businesses etc.. I think they can produce good $$$.

Assuming one time charges and currency exchanges don't effect profits too much I would think .02+ is doable for the quarter. Which would mean roughly .04 eps for the year so far. I think they can do at least that in the 2nd half of the year as well. Which means probably a .08-.10EPS for the year.
Based on a 10x PE ratio that is a .80-$1 stock. I think this stock could command a 12-15x PE though since it is growing at such a good rate. (revenue should grow roughly 60-80% for the year)

At a 12 x PE on .08-10EPS is .96-$1.20
At a 15x PE on .08-.10EPS is $1.20-$1.50

Worst case unless something goes really bad I would imagine they would earn at least .06 EPS for the year. Even with a 10x PE that is a .60 stock which is where we sit now.

I think the issue with many investors is they want to see the earnings continue to grow. 1 profitable quarter doesn't make a trend. But 2 will and I think we could see some good movement then.

Were in from .50 on the stockdoubling project so unless the wheels fall off for some reason I don't see much downside on that price. Based on what the company is saying in their news releases revenues and orders they foresee growing nicely over the next while.

August 15th or so should be interesting for the stock. I can't wait to see what happens.

I won't be available tomorrow. (Unless something big happens I won't update the blog.)

Have a great weekend
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS NEWS update and earnings?

Friday had some great news with DFNS.

They announced a new order for $1.5 million for Israel Defense. Which will be delivered in the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter of this year.

This is on top of the $4 million in orders the military ordered back in Jan. and $2.2 million ordered in Feb.

Based on the #'s that I see on the press releases they have the following...

$4 million
$2.2 million (with possible 20% over that or additional $400k)
$1.5 million
----------------
$7.7 million in Israel Defense Ministry orders (That have been released via a press release, their could be smaller orders that weren't released I don't know.)

The $4 million order was suppose to be delivered by April according to the Jan. press release.
The $2.2 million order was suppose to be delivered by July according to the Feb press release.
The $1.5 million order is suppose to be delivered in the 3rd and 4th quarter (July-Dec) according to Friday's release.

So far we only have the #'s for Q1 and looking over those #'s the Local military which I assume is the Israel Defense ministry the revenue was only $1.5 million!!
They were suppose to have $6.2-$6.6 million delivered by July. Now the Israel Defense ministry may push that back etc.. But if they are continuing to order I would think they are needing more and more. Which leads me to believe that a good chunk of it was delivered in Q2.

I don't think the Local Military will be $5 million for the quarter in revenue. But I could see it being $3 million million. WHICH WOULD BE HUGE!!

The local military last quarter was the most profitable with the highest margins around 21% according to my calucations. If DFNS did $3 million for Q2 in just Local military that would mean roughly $650,000 in pretax income. Which is like .02 EPS by itself!

Local civilian tends to run in the $700-$900K per quarter range and has a small profit.
Based on Feb and April press releases they had the bus orders which were to be delivered in April and June which is Q2 + military export totaling $1.3 million.

On top of that they have some backlog to run through.

These are all guesses of course on my part but I could forsee a $5.5-$6.5 million Q2 revenue with a range on EPS of .01-.03 EPS. (They only did $1.8 million in revenue Q2 last year.)

Of course they could push stuff back to the Q3 which would be disappointing but possible.

With such a small company a $1 million can be a HUGE difference either way.

I think if the company delivered the products as the contracts orginally stated and the company turned a decent profit I think we will be looking at a nice quarter. I am looking for a big jump in revenues from Q1. Hopefully we will see it.

DFNS had its 2nd largest volume day on Friday which is good to see. It was up a good amount and closed up as well. (The largest volume day so far this year was Q1 release day)

August 15th is the big day.

Thank you for all those who emailed me about the new project I am thinking about. (You can find it on Friday's Blog) The response was positive and I will probably move towards that in the coming weeks.


Have a great day.
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

DFNS NEWS

Nice another News release from DFNS today about $1.5 million more in NEW ORDERS. Which will be delivered in the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year!!!

Too put that into prespective that is about 15% in that one order what they did ALL of last year!!!

They should do 60-100% increase in revenues for the year and could earn as much as .10 EPS for the year.

Great News hopefully get a nice bump in the stock price. Looks like a decent move in the last 20 minutes already and NICE VOLUME!!

Have a great weekend.

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

New Project for US?

I am considering a website that be a membership only site about trading stocks.

Basically I would find 3 stocks a month to trade.

(COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM STOCKDOUBLING.COM THE STOCKDOUBLING PROJECT WOULD NOT CHANGE!!!!

These stocks would be stocks that I feel could return 10-50% return in 1-3 months. If you have followed the stockdoubling project for any amount of time you probably have noticed the increase in value of the stocks I have picked (even the OTHER stocks).

So rather than wait for 4 months or a year for a stock to double you could also TRADE some stocks for quick gains.
Again these wouldn't be the same picks as the StockDoubling project and I wouldn't recommend using the same money for both. You should have 2 different accounts or at least know that one is for trading and one is for the stockdoubling project.

The membership site would cost roughly $25 a month and like I said would probably give 3 new stocks a month that I am looking for gains.

It could be a fun way to make some money off the stock market while we wait for the StockDoubling project to hit.

Let me know if you would have an interest. (Not committing to anything just wonder if the interest is there.)

FYI nothing from DFNS IR as of yet. I will send them another email on Monday if I don't hear from them by then.

Either post a comment on the blog on your thoughts on the membership site or send me an email to alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Have a great weekend
Thank you
Steve Hoven

Not much happening

I haven't heard back from IR at DFNS yet. Why IR has to forward my questions to the company I am not sure. I thought it was the IR's job to know the answers and handle that type of stuff that is why they get paid I thought.

Anyway still nothing from them maybe I will get it by the time Q2 earnings are released I don't know.

I have been under the weather and just drained the last couple of days. WAY too much on my plate right now and I seem to add more to it.

I took the night off yesterday and relaxed last night and feel some what better this morning. I am taking the day off today as well and going to a fair with my family. So have a good day and if I hear anything I will update the blog.

Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Review of the 5 stocks!

No volume today on DFNS.

Since it was a quiet day lets review the 5 stocks that we selected back on April 9th 2007. You can read the original information on these stocks in the April 9th edition of the blog.

DFNS .(50) currently .61 up 22% so far. This was the pick for the StockDoubling project. I have gone into great details about this stock and won't rehash it all. It is still my only holding that I have. I am waiting for information on my questions from the company yet. And August 15th is the big day.

THE OTHER 4 STOCKS....

GLDS (.275) currently .33 up 20% so far. This stock has recently changed the name of the stock and the symbol which is now AIRI I haven't followed the company that closely. They are finishing up a great deal of acquisitions and their sales will be UP dramatically. They have a great deal of stock outstanding though and will probably have a bunch more with the added expenses etc.. They did say they would be profitable but how many shares will be out there will be key. I wouldn't be surprised to see a reverse split on the stock this year either. (which are usually not good) But it would bring the # of shares down and the price up at least temporary. Its a hard stock to gauge at this point. (smells too much like ATSX as far as issuing stock etc..so I am hesitant.)

AYSI (.67) currently .41 down 39% so far. This stock has been the disappointment of the group. It has had a HUGE run this year though. The company had disappointing Q2 earnings which rocked the stock. I don't think they will come close to my April 9th earnings estimates I had but they could still earn a good amount this year. They are growing revenues quickly and the top 2 guys in the company own 73% of the stock so the float isn't much. The .40 area could hold for some support. If it doesn't I think .30 will. Its a higher risk stock just because its so small. But if they produce a good Q3 this stock should get back to the .60's+.

TSSW (.76) currently $1.80 up 137% so far. This stock has been the winner of the group so far. They are also a small company but growing rapidly. They are earning money and people are loving this stock again. I think it is a little pricey at these levels but the company seems to be running full steam ahead so we will see where it goes.

CAGC ($2.90) currently $3.70 up 27% so far. This stock I have talked about a lot recently so you can review those posts. Basically the company is profitable and growing at a good rate. Has some good potential going forward to be a nice stock. Not a ton of downside but not a double I don't think within 6 months either. Decent risk/reward for a longer term holder 12-18+ months.

If you put $100 in each stock based on the posting price on April 9th you would have invested $500. Based on today's closing price your $500 would now be worth $667 or a 33% return for just over 3 months! And I think if you check back 3 months from now most of those stocks should be higher.

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

StockDoubling Project is ALIVE!

Well, I am back.

StockDoubling.com project isn't dead I guess at least not yet anyway.

The procedure went fine. (They put a camera down my throat to look at my stomach and stretched my throat out, I was having trouble getting certain foods down sometimes.)

Thank you for thoughts and prayers about it.

I was out of it a bit and don't remember a lot about it right after etc..

But I do remember that I am in DFNS and I still think it is a great stock to own. I did hear from the IR (Investor relations) at DFNS basically they are forwarding the questions I had to the company and will get back with me shortly. Since its the weekend now in the mid east I would expect hopefully to hear something back the first part of next week.

I will let you know if I find out anything of value from the answers.

We have to remember that when the StockDoubling project was started that the goal was for 1 winning stock in a YEAR! Well we were at Level 3 after just 14 months. So things went fast. Which may have spoiled us a bit but remember what the goal was. 1 stock to double in a year.
It has only been 3 months for DFNS so far and we are up roughly 20% from the .50 original purchase price. So we do have a little cushion.

The first 2 stocks I picked (GNBT, and PSIT) both took 4 months in order to double. And that is right around August 15th for DFNS. And I think we could really get a good move in the stock on that news assuming of course it is good news.

Time will tell, you need to ALWAYS evaluate stocks yourself don't just take my word for it. Not every stock I pick will be right for everyone. See if it fits what you are looking for and evaluate it yourself as well.

IT'S YOUR MONEY. NO ONE WILL CARE FOR YOUR MONEY MORE THAN YOU WILL.

Have a GREAT weekend.
Thank you
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net

Is this the end of the StockDoubling Project????

Looks like I got out of HIHO and CAGC too early as both rebounded nicely from their news.

Just another example of staying in stocks until your targets instead of jumping in and out of them. Both stocks I think will do fine longer term 6-12 months out. I just didn't see a huge upside like before after they announced news.

I will probably not have an update tomorrow. I am going in for a minor procedure in which I will be put under so I may be out of it most of the day and don't want to post something CRAZY while under the influence of gas. (I have not heard back yet from DFNS IR)

You never know what could happen maybe I won't make it. (Only God knows, its in his hands.)

But if I never come back the stockdoubling project would die with me. But that doesn't mean you can't still pick stocks like me. CHECK OUT

www.BeforeItMoves.com

Sorry I had to plug it just in case. LOL
Lord willing I will have a post on Friday morning

Have a great day
Steve Hoven
alleycatnews@alleycatnews.net